Fasting Plasma Glucose Levels Predict Steroid-Induced Abnormal Glucose Metabolism in Patients with Non-Diabetic Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background/Aims: Glucocorticoids-induced abnormal glucose metabolism (AGM) is a common medical problem in patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, little information is available regarding the prediction of steroid-induced AGM in this patient population. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we consecutively enrolled 303 non-diabetic CKD patients with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels <5.6 mmol/l and normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). OGTT was performed every 3 months during glucocorticoid treatment to identify new-onset AGM, and patients were followed for 12 months post steroid withdrawal. Results: During 593 person-years, there were 107 incident cases of steroid-induced AGM (18/100 person-year), including 55 (51.4%) diabetes and 52 (48.6%) pre-diabetes. In a multivariate model, each millimole increase per liter in FPG enhanced the risk of AGM by 4.6-fold (hazard ratio 4.58, 95% confidence interval, 2.67-7.83). After adjusting other risk factors, a progressively increased risk of AGM or DM was observed in patients with FPG levels ≥4.8 mmol/l, as compared with those whose levels were ≤4.3 mmol/l (p for trend <0.001). Furthermore, a greater increase in FPG level (≥0.3 mmol/l) during the first 3 months of glucocorticoid treatment was associated with an increased risk for future diabetes. For predicting steroid-induced diabetes, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.90 for the combination of FPG and changes in FPG levels at month 3. Conclusion: Higher-normal FPG and a greater increase in FPG levels during glucocorticoid treatment may help to identify non-diabetic CKD patients at increased risk of steroid-induced AGM or diabetes.