scholarly journals SAA (Serum Amyloid A)

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (12) ◽  
pp. 3523-3530
Author(s):  
Juliane Schweizer ◽  
Alejandro Bustamante ◽  
Vanessa Lapierre-Fétaud ◽  
Júlia Faura ◽  
Natalie Scherrer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Adjusted Odds Ratio ◽  
Serum Amyloid A ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Amyloid A ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Background and Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate and independently validate SAA (serum amyloid A)—a recently discovered blood biomarker—to predict poststroke infections. Methods: The derivation cohort (A) was composed of 283 acute ischemic stroke patients and the independent validation cohort (B), of 367 patients. The primary outcome measure was any stroke-associated infection, defined by the criteria of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, occurring during hospitalization. To determine the association of SAA levels on admission with the development of infections, logistic regression models were calculated. The discriminatory ability of SAA was assessed, by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: After adjusting for all predictors that were significantly associated with any infection in the univariate analysis, SAA remained an independent predictor in study A (adjusted odds ratio, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.16–1.79]; P =0.001) and in study B (adjusted odds ratio, 1.52 [1.05–2.22]; P =0.028). Adding SAA to the best regression model without the biomarker, the discriminatory accuracy improved from 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.79 (0.72–0.86; P <0.001; likelihood ratio test) in study A. These results were externally validated in study B with an improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, from 0.75 (0.70–0.81) to 0.76 (0.71–0.82; P <0.038). Conclusions: Among patients with ischemic stroke, blood SAA measured on admission is a novel independent predictor of infection after stroke. SAA improved the discrimination between patients who developed an infection compared with those who did not in both derivation and validation cohorts. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00390962.

scholarly journals Externe Validierung einer Single-Item Skala zur Erfassung der Motivation zum Rauchstopp

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-180
Author(s):  
Yekaterina Pashutina ◽  
Sabrina Kastaun ◽  
Elena Ratschen ◽  
Lion Shahab ◽  
Daniel Kotz
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Single Item ◽  
Logistische Regression ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Zusammenfassung. Zielsetzung: Die Motivation to Stop Scale (MTSS) ist eine englischsprachige Single-Item Skala zur Vorhersage von Rauchstoppversuchen. Ziel dieser Arbeit war die externe Validierung der deutschsprachigen Version der MTSS (Motivation zum Rauchstopp Skala, MRS) an einer Stichprobe von aktuell Tabakrauchenden in Deutschland. Methodik: Datenbasis war die Deutsche Befragung zum Rauchverhalten (DEBRA), eine deutschlandweite, persönlich-mündliche Haushaltsbefragung von Personen ab 14 Jahren mit telefonischer Nachbefragung nach 6 Monaten. Analysiert wurden Daten aus den ersten 18 Wellen (Juni 2016–Mai 2019) von 767 aktuell Tabakrauchenden. Die MRS (Stufe 1–7 = keine bis höchste Motivation) wurde bei der Erstbefragung eingesetzt. Bei der Nachbefragung wurde die Anzahl der Rauchstoppversuche seit Erstbefragung erfasst. Logistische Regression wurde durchgeführt und die diskriminative Genauigkeit der MRS mittels Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC-AUC) berechnet. Ergebnisse: Bei Erstbefragung waren 61,1 % ( n = 469; 95 % Konfidenzintervall (KI) = 57.7–64.6) der 767 Rauchenden nicht zum Rauchstopp motiviert (MRS-Stufe 1–2). Insgesamt unternahmen 185 der 767 Rauchenden (24,1 %; 95 % KI = 21.1–27.1) zwischen der Erst- und Nachbefragung mindestens einen Rauchstoppversuch. Mit steigender Motivationsstufe auf der MRS nahm die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen Rauchstoppversuch zu: Odds Ratio = 1.37, 95 % KI = 1.25–1.51, bei einer diskriminativen Genauigkeit von ROC-AUC = 0.64. Schlussfolgerung: Die MRS ist ein kurzes und valides Messinstrument zur Erfassung der Rauchstoppmotivation im deutschen Sprachraum.

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors that predict the success rate of trial of labor after the cesarean section

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Mi ◽  
Pengfei Qu ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Ruimiao Bai ◽  
Jiayi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Training Set ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background For most women who have had a previous cesarean section, vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a reasonable and safe choice, but which will increase the risk of adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture. In order to reduce the risk, we evaluated the factors that may affect VBAC and and established a model for predicting the success rate of trial of the labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Methods All patients who gave birth at Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018, had a history of cesarean section and voluntarily chose the TOLAC were recruited. Among them, 80% of the population was randomly assigned to the training set, while the remaining 20% were assigned to the external validation set. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify indicators related to successful TOLAC. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis, and the selected variables included in the nomogram were used to predict the probability of successfully obtaining TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to judge the predictive ability of the model. Results A total of 778 pregnant women were included in this study. Among them, 595 (76.48%) successfully underwent TOLAC, whereas 183 (23.52%) failed and switched to cesarean section. In multi-factor logistic regression, parity = 1, pre-pregnancy BMI < 24 kg/m2, cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery and neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were associated with the success of TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the prediction and validation models was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.762–0.854) and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.652–0.808), respectively, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had medium discriminative power. Conclusion The TOLAC was useful to reducing the cesarean section rate. Being primiparous, not overweight or obese, having a cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery or neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were protective indicators. In this study, the validated model had an approving predictive ability.

The gut hormone GLP-2 predicts cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Kahles ◽  
R.W Mertens ◽  
M.V Rueckbeil ◽  
M.C Arrivas ◽  
J Moellmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Cardiovascular Prognosis ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Hs Crp

Abstract Background GLP-1 and GLP-2 (glucagon-like peptide-1/2) are gut derived hormones that are co-secreted from intestinal L-cells in response to food intake. While GLP-1 is known to induce postprandial insulin secretion, GLP-2 enhances intestinal nutrient absorption and is clinically used for the treatment of patients with short bowel syndrome. The relevance of the GLP-2 system for cardiovascular disease is unknown. Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive capacity of GLP-2 for cardiovascular prognosis in patients with myocardial infarction. Methods Total GLP-2 levels, NT-proBNP concentrations and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score were assessed at time of admission in 918 patients with myocardial infarction, among them 597 patients with NSTEMI and 321 with STEMI. The primary composite outcome of the study was the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke (3-P-MACE) with a median follow-up of 311 days. Results Kaplan-Meier survival plots (separated by the median of GLP-2 with a cut-off value of 4.4 ng/mL) and univariable cox regression analyses found GLP-2 values to be associated with adverse outcome (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.75–4.68; p&lt;0.0001). Further adjustment for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of cardiovascular disease, hs-Troponin T, NT-proBNP and hs-CRP levels did not affect the association of GLP-2 with poor prognosis (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.96; 95% CI: 1.38–6.34; p=0.0053). Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses illustrated that GLP-2 is a strong indicator for cardiovascular events and proved to be comparable to other established risk markers (area under the curve of the combined endpoint at 6 months; GLP-2: 0.72; hs-Troponin: 0.56; NT-proBNP: 0.70; hs-CRP: 0.62). Adjustment of the GRACE risk estimate by GLP-2 increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the combined triple endpoint after 6 months from 0.70 (GRACE) to 0.75 (GRACE + GLP-2) in NSTEMI patients. Addition of GLP-2 to a model containing GRACE and NT-proBNP led to a further improvement in model performance (increase in AUC from 0.72 for GRACE + NT-proBNP to 0.77 for GRACE + NT-proBNP + GLP-2). Conclusions In patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, GLP-2 levels are associated with adverse cardiovascular prognosis. This demonstrates a strong yet not appreciated crosstalk between the heart and the gut with relevance for cardiovascular outcome. Future studies are needed to further explore this crosstalk with the possibility of new treatment avenues for cardiovascular disease. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): German Society of Cardiology (DGK), German Research Foundation (DFG)

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case–control design

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022199595
Author(s):  
Yalda Zarnegarnia ◽  
Shari Messinger
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case–control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.

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