ABSTRACTBackgroundThe threats of the COVID-19 pandemic require the mobilization of scientists, including mathematicians. To understand how the number of cases increases versus time, various models based on direct observations of a random number of new cases and differential equations can be used. Complex mathematical models contain many unknown parameters, the values of which must be determined using a limited number of observations of the disease over time. Even long-term monitoring of the epidemic may not provide reliable estimates of its parameters due to the constant change of testing conditions, isolation of infected and quarantine. Therefore, simpler approaches should also be used, for example, some smoothing of the dependence of the number of cases on time and the known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model. These approaches allowed to detect the waves of pandemic in different countries and regions and to make adequate predictions of the duration, hidden periods, reproduction numbers, and final sizes of its waves. In particular, seven waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine were investigated.ObjectiveWe will detect new epidemic waves in Ukraine that occurred after September 1, 2020 and estimate the epidemic characteristics with the use of generalized SIR model. Some predictions of the epidemic dynamics will be presented.MethodsIn this study we use the smoothing method for the dependence of the number of cases on time; the generalized SIR model for the dynamics of any epidemic wave, the exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before.ResultsSeventh and eights epidemic waves in Ukraine were detected and the reasons of their appearance were discussed. The optimal values of the SIR model parameters were calculated. The prediction for the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in Ukraine is not very optimistic: new cases will not stop appearing until June 2021. Only mass vaccination and social distancing can change this trend.ConclusionsNew waves of COVID-19 pandemic can be detected, calculated and predicted with the use of rather simple mathematical simulations. The expected long duration of the pandemic forces us to be careful and in solidarity.The government and all Ukrainians must strictly adhere to quarantine measures in order to avoid fatal consequences.