Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 3134-3148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Gerald H. Haug
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
The Past ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Past Millennium ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing. The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.

Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9869-9879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Duan ◽  
Lun Li ◽  
Zhuguo Ma ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temperature Deviation ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Nino Events

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions, shows that the summer cooling driven by extratropical eruptions is insignificant on the TP, while significant summer temperature decreases occur subsequent to tropical eruptions. Further analysis of the TP August–September temperature responses reveals a significant postvolcanic cooling only when no El Niño event occurred. However, there is no such cooling for all other situations, that is, tropical eruptions together with a subsequent El Niño event, as well as extratropical eruptions regardless of the occurrence of an El Niño event. The averaged August–September temperature deviation ( Tdev) following 10 large tropical eruptions without a subsequent El Niño event is up to −0.48° ± 0.19°C (with respect to the preceding 5-yr mean), whereas the temperature deviation following 4 large tropical eruptions with an El Niño association is approximately 0.23° ± 0.16°C. These results indicate a mitigation effect of El Niño events on the TP temperature response to large tropical eruptions. The possible mechanism is that El Niño events can weaken the Indian summer monsoon with a subsequent decrease in rainfall and cooling effect, which may lead to a relatively high temperature on the TP, one of the regions affected by the Indian summer monsoon.

Maritime Adaptations at Cerro Azul, Peru

2020 ◽  
pp. 351-365
Author(s):  
Joyce Marcus ◽  
Kent V. Flannery ◽  
Jeffrey Sommer ◽  
Robert G. Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Intermediate Period ◽  
Intermediate Period ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Peruvian Coast ◽  
Maritime Adaptations ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Chapter 13 discusses Late Intermediate Period (~1000–1400 cal AD) and 20th-century fishing at Cerro Azul, a large site in the Cañete Valley on the Peruvian coast south of Lima. The authors provide data on the effects of the 1982–83 El Niño event on the local fisheries and use these data to examine the Cerro Azul zooarchaeological assemblage for evidence of El Niño events; they did not find signs of El Niño although events occurred while the site was inhabited.

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6485) ◽  
pp. 1477-1481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia G. Dee ◽  
Kim M. Cobb ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Toby R. Ault ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Superposed Epoch Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Forcing

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

scholarly journals Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 3799-3812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Liu ◽  
Jinbao Li ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Millennium

scholarly journals Volcanic and ENSO effects in China in simulations and reconstructions: Tambora eruption 1815

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 2061-2088 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Zhang ◽  
R. Blender ◽  
K. Fraedrich
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. The co-operative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) on the climate in China are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800–2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The experiment includes two ensembles with weak (5 members) and strong (3 members) total solar irradiance variability. In the absence of El Niño and La Niña events, volcanoes, which are the dominant forcing in both ensembles, cause a dramatic cooling in West China (−2 °C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The recovery times for the volcano induced cooling vary globally between one and 12 yr; in China these values are mostly within 1–4 yr, but reach 10 yr in the Northeast. Without volcanoes, after El Niño events the summer precipitation is reduced in the North, while South China becomes wetter (indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, for summers, JJA); La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling in most regions of China, while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to −2.5 °C). The simulated impact of the eruption of the Tambora in 1815, which caused the "year without summer" 1816 in Europe and North America and coldness and famines for several years in the Chinese province Yunnan, depends crucially on the ENSO state of the coupled model. A comparison with reconstructed El Niño events shows a moderate cool climate with wet (in the South) and extreme dry anomalies (in the North) persisting for several years.

scholarly journals MLS measurements of stratospheric hydrogen cyanide during the 2015–16 El Niño event

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh C. Pumphrey ◽  
Norbert Glatthor ◽  
Peter F. Bernath ◽  
Christopher D. Boone ◽  
James Hannigan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Hydrogen Cyanide ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Good Qualitative Agreement ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events ◽  
Enso Indices

Abstract. It is known from ground-based measurements made during the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events that atmospheric HCN tends to be higher than usual during such years. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura has been measuring HCN mixing ratios since launch in 2004; the measurements are ongoing at the time of writing. The winter of 2015–16 has seen the largest El Niño event since 1997–98. We present MLS measurements of HCN in the lower stratosphere for the Aura mission to date, comparing the 2015–16 El Niño period to the rest of the mission. HCN in 2015–16 is higher than at any other time during the mission, but ground based measurements suggest that it may have been even more elevated in 1997–98. As the MLS HCN data are essentially un-validated, we show them alongside data from the MIPAS and ACE-FTS instruments; the three instruments agree reasonably well in the tropical lower stratosphere. Global HCN emissions calculated from the GFED (V4.1) database are very much greater during large El Niño events and are greater in 1997–98 than in 2015–16, thereby showing good qualitative agreement with the measurements. Correlation between ENSO indices, measured HCN and GFED HCN emissions is less clear away from the 2015–16 event. In particular, the 2009–10 winter had fairly strong El Niño conditions and fairly large GFED HCN emissions, but very little effect is observed in the MLS HCN.

scholarly journals Impact of Severe Drought during the Strong 2015/2016 El Nino on the Phenology and Survival of Secondary Dry Dipterocarp Species in Western Thailand

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 967
Author(s):  
Rungnapa Kaewthongrach ◽  
Yann Vitasse ◽  
Taninnuch Lamjiak ◽  
Amnat Chidthaisong
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Leaf Phenology ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Deciduous Species ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Secondary forest areas are increasing worldwide and understanding how these forests interact with climate change including frequent and extreme events becomes increasingly important. This study aims to investigate the effects of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought on species-specific leaf phenology, dieback and tree mortality in a secondary dry dipterocarp forest (DDF) in western Thailand. During the 2015/2016 El Niño event, rainfall and soil water content were lower than 25 mm and 5% during 5–6 consecutive months. The dry season was 3–4 months longer during the El Niño than during non-El Niño events. We found that this prolonged drought induced the earlier shedding and a delay in leaf emergence of the DDF. The deciduousness period was also longer during the El Niño event (5 months instead of 2–3 months during non-El Niño event). We found that the DDF species showed different phenological responses and sensitivities to the El Niño-induced drought. The leaf phenology of stem succulent species Lannea coromandelica (Houtt.) Merr. and a complete deciduous species with low wood density. Sindora siamensis Teijsm. ex Miq. was only slightly affected by the El Niño-induced drought. Conversely, a semi-deciduous species such as Dipterocarpus obtusifolius Teijsm. ex Miq. showed a higher degree of deciduousness during the El Niño compared to non-El Niño events. Our results also highlight that dieback and mortality during El Niño were increased by 45 and 50%, respectively, compared to non-El Niño events, pointing at the importance of such events to shape DDF ecosystems.

Clear anti-phase tendency of volcanic eruptions and consistent U.S. Dollar Index response to volcanic forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seokhwan Hwang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract Numerous studies have presented statistical relations between large volcanic eruptions and ensuing El Niño events or between El Niño events and local economies. However, the relation between volcanic eruptions and economies has not been completely clarified. This study compares volcanic eruptions and the U.S. Dollar Index for the past 54 years (1967–2020) to identify significant economic responses to volcanic activity. There is a clear anti-phase tendency between the volcanic eruptions of the western Pacific and those of the eastern Pacific. And volcanic eruptions and U.S. Dollar Index exhibit a strong correlation and U.S. Dollar Index follows the fluctuation trend of volcanic eruptions with a 1-year delay. Thus, results indicate that changes in forces within the earth due to volcanic eruptions continuously impact the global economy. This study identifies a teleconnection between heterogeneous factors that had not been previously reported and provides a new scientific clue regarding the mechanism how has geodynamics affected the human life.

Effective population size for South American sea lions along the Peruvian coast: the survivors of the strongest El Niño event in history

2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (8) ◽  
pp. 1835-1841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Rosa de Oliveira ◽  
Lúcia Darsie Fraga ◽  
Patricia Majluf
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South American ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Sea Lions ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Peruvian Coast ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

The South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens, has been considered vulnerable and under the threat of extinction in Peru due to the drastic demographic changes as a result of the impact of low food availability and the unusual timing of the severe El Niño event of 1997–1998. We present the first estimate of effective population size (Ne) for the species that takes into account the effects of mating system and variation in population size in different generations caused by the severe El Niño event of 1997–1998. The resulting Ne was 7715 specimens. We believe that the estimated Ne for the Peruvian population is not a critical value, because it is higher than the mean minimum viable population generally accepted for vertebrates (ca. 5000 breeding adults). However, the viability of O. flavescens on the Peruvian coast may depend primarily on local availability of food resources. Climatic change models predict stronger and more frequent El Niño events. In this sense, the Ne of 7715 should be considered as a value to be maintained in order to keep the population large enough to avoid inbreeding or to retain adaptive genetic variation to survive to future El Niño events. Moreover, this Ne estimate is important data in discussions about resuming culling activities, based on the statement of an increasing competition between fishery activity and sea lions during El Niño events. Thus, this Ne should be taken into account in future management plans to ensure the conservation of the species on the Peruvian coast.

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