scholarly journals Experiences with >50,000 Crowdsourced Hail Reports in Switzerland

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (8) ◽  
pp. 1429-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Barras ◽  
Alessandro Hering ◽  
Andrey Martynov ◽  
Pascal-Andreas Noti ◽  
Urs Germann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Observational Method ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Size Category ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Estimation Algorithms ◽  
Swiss Population ◽  
First Results ◽  
Size Estimates

AbstractCrowdsourcing is an observational method that has gained increasing popularity in recent years. In hail research, crowdsourced reports bridge the gap between heuristically defined radar hail algorithms, which are automatic and spatially and temporally widespread, and hail sensors, which provide precise hail measurements at fewer locations. We report on experiences with and first results from a hail size reporting function in the app of the Swiss National Weather Service. App users can report the presence and size of hail by choosing a predefined size category. Since May 2015, the app has gathered >50,000 hail reports from the Swiss population. This is an unprecedented wealth of data on the presence and approximate size of hail on the ground. The reports are filtered automatically for plausibility. The filters require a minimum radar reflectivity value in a neighborhood of a report, remove duplicate reports and obviously artificial patterns, and limit the time difference between the event and the report submission time. Except for the largest size category, the filters seem to be successful. After filtering, 48% of all reports remain, which we compare against two operationally used radar hail detection and size estimation algorithms, probability of hail (POH) and maximum expected severe hail size (MESHS). The comparison suggests that POH and MESHS are defined too restrictively and that some hail events are missed by the algorithms. Although there is significant variability between size categories, we found a positive correlation between the reported hail size and the radar-based size estimates.

Estimating the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: A two-survey capture-recapture exercise (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abu Abdul-Quader
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Illicit Drugs ◽  
People Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
The City ◽  
Size Estimates

BACKGROUND Population size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam relied on the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package and reports from the city police department. The two estimates vary widely. OBJECTIVE To estimate the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam METHODS Using Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), we implemented two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017 in 7 out of 24 districts. The study included men or women aged at least 18 years who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days and who had lived in the city the past six months. We calculated two sets of size estimates, the first assumed that all participants in each survey round resided in the district where the survey was conducted, the second, used the district of residence as reported by the participant. District estimates were summed to obtain an aggregate estimate for the seven districts. To calculate the city total, we weighted the population size estimates for each district by the inverse of the stratum specific sampling probabilities. RESULTS The first estimate resulted in a population size of 19,155 (95% CI: 17,006–25,039). The second one generated a smaller population size estimate of 12,867 (95% CI: 11,312–17,393). CONCLUSIONS The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided two disparate estimates of PWID in HCMC. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

First estimates of genome size in ribbon worms (phylum Nemertea) using flow cytometry and Feulgen image analysis densitometry

2014 ◽  
Vol 92 (10) ◽  
pp. 847-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly L. Mulligan ◽  
Terra C. Hiebert ◽  
Nicholas W. Jeffery ◽  
T. Ryan Gregory
Keyword(s):  
Flow Cytometry ◽  
Image Analysis ◽  
Body Size ◽  
Genome Size ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Nuclear Dna ◽  
Nuclear Dna Content ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Size Diversity ◽  
Size Estimates

Ribbon worms (phylum Nemertea) are among several animal groups that have been overlooked in past studies of genome-size diversity. Here, we report genome-size estimates for eight species of nemerteans, including representatives of the major lineages in the phylum. Genome sizes in these species ranged more than fivefold, and there was some indication of a positive relationship with body size. Somatic endopolyploidy also appears to be common in these animals. Importantly, this study demonstrates that both of the most common methods of genome-size estimation (flow cytometry and Feulgen image analysis densitometry) can be used to assess genome size in ribbon worms, thereby facilitating additional efforts to investigate patterns of variability in nuclear DNA content in this phylum.

scholarly journals Particle Size Estimation in Ice-Phase Clouds Using Multifrequency Radar Reflectivity Measurements at 95, 33, and 2.8 GHz

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Sekelsky ◽  
Warner L. Ecklund ◽  
John M. Firda ◽  
Kenneth S. Gage ◽  
Robert E. McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
Particle Size ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Multifrequency Radar ◽  
Ice Phase

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: Ramifications, Ruminations and Recommendations

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. K. Huysamen
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Null Hypothesis Significance Testing ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Size Estimates

Criticisms of traditional null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) became more pronounced during the 1960s and reached a climax during the past decade. Among others, NHST says nothing about the size of the population parameter of interest and its result is influenced by sample size. Estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, model fitting and Bayesian statistics represent some major departures from conventional NHST. Testing non-nil null hypotheses, determining optimal sample size to uncover only substantively meaningful effect sizes and reporting effect-size estimates may be regarded as minor extensions of NHST. Although there seems to be growing support for the estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, it is unlikely that NHST-based procedures will disappear in the near future. In the meantime, it is widely accepted that effect-size estimates should be reported as a mandatory adjunct to conventional NHST results.

scholarly journals Accuracy of estimates of food portion size using food photographs – the importance of using age-appropriate tools

2006 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Foster ◽  
John NS Matthews ◽  
Michael Nelson ◽  
Julie M Harris ◽  
John C Mathers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Original Data ◽  
Portion Size ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Portion Sizes ◽  
Food Portion ◽  
Age Appropriate ◽  
Portion Size Estimation ◽  
Size Estimates ◽  
Food Portion Size

AbstractBackgroundIn order to obtain a measure of nutrient intake, a measure or estimate of the amount of food consumed is required. Weighing foods imposes a large burden on subjects, often resulting in underreporting. Tools are available to assist subjects in providing an estimate of portion size and these include food photographs. The application of these tools in improving portion size estimation by children has not been investigated systematically.ObjectivesTo assess the accuracy with which children are able to estimate food portion sizes using food photographs designed for use with adults, and to determine whether the accuracy of estimates is improved when age-appropriate portion size photographs are provided.DesignOriginal data from three separate studies, on the accuracy of portion size estimates by adults using food photographs, by children using adult photographs and by children using age-appropriate photographs, are analysed and compared.SubjectsOne hundred and thirty-five adults aged 18 to 90 years and 210 children aged 4 to 11 years.ResultsChildren's estimates of portion sizes using age-appropriate food photographs were significantly more accurate (an underestimate of 1% on average) than estimates using photographs designed for use with adults (an overestimate of 45% on average). Accuracy of children's estimates of portion size using age-appropriate photographs was not significantly different from that of adults. Children overestimated a food's weight by 18% on average and adults underestimated by 5%.ConclusionsProviding children with food photographs depicting age-appropriate portion sizes greatly increases the accuracy of portion size estimates compared with estimates using photographs designed for use with adults.

scholarly journals Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Namibia Using a Respondent-Driven Sampling Adjustment to the Reverse Tracking Method: A Novel Approach (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Douglas Wesson ◽  
Rajatashuvra Adhikary ◽  
Anna Jonas ◽  
Krysta Gerndt ◽  
Ali Mirzazadeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Female Sex Workers ◽  
Respondent Driven Sampling ◽  
Double Counting ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Tracking Method ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Size Estimates

BACKGROUND Key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), are at a disproportionately high risk for HIV infection. Estimates of the size of these populations serve as denominator data to inform HIV prevention and treatment programming and are necessary for the equitable allocation of limited public health resources. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to present the respondent-driven sampling (RDS) adjusted reverse tracking method (RTM; RadR), a novel population size estimation approach that combines venue mapping data with RDS data to estimate the population size, adjusted for double counting and nonattendance biases. METHODS We used data from a 2014 RDS survey of FSWs in Windhoek and Katima Mulilo, Namibia, to demonstrate the RadR method. Information from venue mapping and enumeration from the survey formative assessment phase were combined with survey-based venue-inquiry questions to estimate population size, adjusting for double counting, and FSWs who do not attend venues. RadR estimates were compared with the official population size estimates, published by the Namibian Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS), and with the unadjusted RTM. RESULTS Using the RadR method, we estimated 1552 (95% simulation interval, SI, 1101-2387) FSWs in Windhoek and 453 (95% SI: 336-656) FSWs in Katima Mulilo. These estimates were slightly more conservative than the MoHSS estimates—Windhoek: 3000 (1800-3400); Katima Mulilo: 800 (380-2000)—though not statistically different. We also found 75 additional venues in Windhoek and 59 additional venues in Katima Mulilo identified by RDS participants’ responses that were not detected during the initial mapping exercise. CONCLUSIONS The RadR estimates were comparable with official estimates from the MoHSS. The RadR method is easily integrated into RDS studies, producing plausible population size estimates, and can also validate and update key population maps for outreach and venue-based sampling.

scholarly journals Population Size Estimation of Gay and Bisexual Men and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men Using Social Media-Based Platforms (Preprint)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Baral ◽  
Rachael M Turner ◽  
Carrie E Lyons ◽  
Sean Howell ◽  
Brian Honermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Hiv Prevention ◽  
Population Size ◽  
The United States ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Size Estimates

BACKGROUND Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV pandemic. Traditionally, GBMSM have been deemed less relevant in HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income settings where HIV epidemics are more generalized. This is due (in part) to how important population size estimates regarding the number of individuals who identify as GBMSM are to informing the development and monitoring of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs and coverage. However, pervasive stigma and criminalization of same-sex practices and relationships provide a challenging environment for population enumeration, and these factors have been associated with implausibly low or absent size estimates of GBMSM, thereby limiting knowledge about the dynamics of HIV transmission and the implementation of programs addressing GBMSM. OBJECTIVE This study leverages estimates of the number of members of a social app geared towards gay men (Hornet) and members of Facebook using self-reported relationship interests in men, men and women, and those with at least one reported same-sex interest. Results were categorized by country of residence to validate official size estimates of GBMSM in 13 countries across five continents. METHODS Data were collected through the Hornet Gay Social Network and by using an a priori determined framework to estimate the numbers of Facebook members with interests associated with GBMSM in South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, The Gambia, Lebanon, Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States. These estimates were compared with the most recent Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national estimates across 143 countries. RESULTS The estimates that leveraged social media apps for the number of GBMSM across countries are consistently far higher than official UNAIDS estimates. Using Facebook, it is also feasible to assess the numbers of GBMSM aged 13-17 years, which demonstrate similar proportions to those of older men. There is greater consistency in Facebook estimates of GBMSM compared to UNAIDS-reported estimates across countries. CONCLUSIONS The ability to use social media for epidemiologic and HIV prevention, treatment, and care needs continues to improve. Here, a method leveraging different categories of same-sex interests on Facebook, combined with a specific gay-oriented app (Hornet), demonstrated significantly higher estimates than those officially reported. While there are biases in this approach, these data reinforce the need for multiple methods to be used to count the number of GBMSM (especially in more stigmatizing settings) to better inform mathematical models and the scale of HIV program coverage. Moreover, these estimates can inform programs for those aged 13-17 years; a group for which HIV incidence is the highest and HIV prevention program coverage, including the availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is lowest. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for social media to provide comparable estimates of the number of GBMSM across a large range of countries, including some with no reported estimates.

scholarly journals Improving effect size estimation and statistical power with multi-echo fMRI and its impact on understanding the neural systems supporting mentalizing

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael V. Lombardo ◽  
Bonnie Auyeung ◽  
Rosemary J. Holt ◽  
Jack Waldman ◽  
Amber N. V. Ruigrok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Cognitive Domain ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Brain Organization ◽  
Effect Size Estimation ◽  
Size Estimates

AbstractFunctional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) research is routinely criticized for being statistically underpowered due to characteristically small sample sizes and much larger sample sizes are being increasingly recommended. Additionally, various sources of artifact inherent in fMRI data can have detrimental impact on effect size estimates and statistical power. Here we show how specific removal of non-BOLD artifacts can improve effect size estimation and statistical power in task-fMRI contexts, with particular application to the social-cognitive domain of mentalizing/theory of mind. Non-BOLD variability identification and removal is achieved in a biophysical and statistically principled manner by combining multi-echo fMRI acquisition and independent components analysis (ME-ICA). Group-level effect size estimates on two different mentalizing tasks were enhanced by ME-ICA at a median rate of 24% in regions canonically associated with mentalizing, while much more substantial boosts (40-149%) were observed in non-canonical cerebellar areas. This effect size boosting is primarily a consequence of reduction of non-BOLD noise at the subject-level, which then translates into consequent reductions in between-subject variance at the group-level. Power simulations demonstrate that enhanced effect size enables highly-powered studies at traditional sample sizes. Cerebellar effects observed after applying ME-ICA may be unobservable with conventional imaging at traditional sample sizes. Thus, ME-ICA allows for principled design-agnostic non-BOLD artifact removal that can substantially improve effect size estimates and statistical power in task-fMRI contexts. ME-ICA could help issues regarding statistical power and non-BOLD noise and enable potential for novel discovery of aspects of brain organization that are currently under-appreciated and not well understood.

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