scholarly journals Stochastic Convection Parameterization with Markov Chains in an Intermediate-Complexity GCM

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 1367-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Dorrestijn ◽  
Daan T. Crommelin ◽  
A. Pier Siebesma ◽  
Harmen J. J. Jonker ◽  
Frank Selten
Keyword(s):  
Mass Flux ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Stochastic Fluctuations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Convection Parameterization ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Conditional Markov chain (CMC) models have proven to be promising building blocks for stochastic convection parameterizations. In this paper, it is demonstrated how two different CMC models can be used as mass flux closures in convection parameterizations. More specifically, the CMC models provide a stochastic estimate of the convective area fraction that is directly proportional to the cloud-base mass flux. Since, in one of the models, the number of CMCs decreases with increasing resolution, this approach makes convection parameterizations scale aware and introduces stochastic fluctuations that increase with resolution in a realistic way. Both CMC models are implemented in a GCM of intermediate complexity. It is shown that with the CMC models, trained with observational data, it is possible to improve both the subgrid-scale variability and the autocorrelation function of the cloud-base mass flux as well as the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the tropics. Hovmöller diagrams and wavenumber–frequency diagrams of the equatorial precipitation indicate that, in this specific GCM, convectively coupled equatorial waves are more sensitive to the mean cloud-base mass flux than to stochastic fluctuations. A smaller mean mass flux tends to increase the power of the simulated MJO and to diminish equatorial Kelvin waves.

scholarly journals A Stochastic Parameterization for Deep Convection Based on Equilibrium Statistics

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Plant ◽  
G. C. Craig
Keyword(s):  
Mass Flux ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Local Fluctuations ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Closure Method ◽  
Deterministic Limit

Abstract A stochastic parameterization scheme for deep convection is described, suitable for use in both climate and NWP models. Theoretical arguments and the results of cloud-resolving models are discussed in order to motivate the form of the scheme. In the deterministic limit, it tends to a spectrum of entraining/detraining plumes and is similar to other current parameterizations. The stochastic variability describes the local fluctuations about a large-scale equilibrium state. Plumes are drawn at random from a probability distribution function (PDF) that defines the chance of finding a plume of given cloud-base mass flux within each model grid box. The normalization of the PDF is given by the ensemble-mean mass flux, and this is computed with a CAPE closure method. The characteristics of each plume produced are determined using an adaptation of the plume model from the Kain–Fritsch parameterization. Initial tests in the single-column version of the Unified Model verify that the scheme is effective in producing the desired distributions of convective variability without adversely affecting the mean state.

scholarly journals Identifying the MJO, Equatorial Waves, and Their Impacts Using 32 Years of HIRS Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1418-1431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
Lei Shi ◽  
James P. Kossin ◽  
John J. Bates
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Intersatellite Calibration ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves are the dominant modes of synoptic-to-subseasonal variability in the tropics. These systems have frequently been examined with proxies for convection such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). However, upper-tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) gives a more complete picture of tropical circulations because it is more sensitive to the drying and warming associated with subsidence. Previous studies examined tropical variability using relatively short (3–7 yr) UTWV datasets. Intersatellite calibration of data from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) has recently produced a homogeneous 32-yr climate data record of UTWV for 200–500 hPa. This study explores the utility of HIRS UTWV for identifying the MJO and equatorial waves. Spectral analysis shows that the MJO and equatorial waves stand out above the low-frequency background in UTWV, similar to previous findings with OLR. The fraction of variance associated with the MJO and equatorial Rossby waves is actually greater in UTWV than in OLR. Kelvin waves, on the other hand, are overshadowed in UTWV by horizontal advection from extratropical Rossby waves. For the MJO, UTWV identifies subsidence drying in the subtropics, poleward of the convection. These dry anomalies are associated with the MJO’s subtropical Rossby gyres. MJO events with dry anomalies over the central North Pacific Ocean also amplify the 200-hPa flow pattern over North America 7 days later. These events cannot be identified using equatorial OLR alone, which demonstrates that UTWV is a useful supplement for identifying the MJO, equatorial waves.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves within the MJO during CINDY/DYNAMO: slow Kelvin waves as building blocks

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 4211-4230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi ◽  
George N. Kiladis ◽  
Juliana Dias ◽  
Tomoe Nasuno
Keyword(s):  
Building Blocks ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

scholarly journals Differences between Nonprecipitating Tropical and Trade Wind Marine Shallow Cumuli

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (2) ◽  
pp. 681-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virendra P. Ghate ◽  
Mark A. Miller ◽  
Ping Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Cumulus Clouds ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Lower Cloud ◽  
Observational Site ◽  
Velocity Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Marine nonprecipitating cumulus topped boundary layers (CTBLs) observed in a tropical and in a trade wind region are contrasted based on their cloud macrophysical, dynamical, and radiative structures. Data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observational site previously operating at Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, and data collected during the deployment of ARM Mobile Facility at the island of Graciosa, in the Azores, were used in this study. The tropical marine CTBLs were deeper, had higher surface fluxes and boundary layer radiative cooling, but lower wind speeds compared to their trade wind counterparts. The radiative velocity scale was 50%–70% of the surface convective velocity scale at both locations, highlighting the prominent role played by radiation in maintaining turbulence in marine CTBLs. Despite greater thicknesses, the chord lengths of tropical cumuli were on average lower than those of trade wind cumuli, and as a result of lower cloud cover, the hourly averaged (cloudy and clear) liquid water paths of tropical cumuli were lower than the trade wind cumuli. At both locations ~70% of the cloudy profiles were updrafts, while the average amount of updrafts near cloud base stronger than 1 m s−1 was ~22% in tropical cumuli and ~12% in the trade wind cumuli. The mean in-cloud radar reflectivity within updrafts and mean updraft velocity was higher in tropical cumuli than the trade wind cumuli. Despite stronger vertical velocities and a higher number of strong updrafts, due to lower cloud fraction, the updraft mass flux was lower in the tropical cumuli compared to the trade wind cumuli. The observations suggest that the tropical and trade wind marine cumulus clouds differ significantly in their macrophysical and dynamical structures.

scholarly journals Measuring ice- and liquid-water properties in mixed-phase cloud layers at the Leipzig Cloudnet station

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 10609-10620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Bühl ◽  
Patric Seifert ◽  
Alexander Myagkov ◽  
Albert Ansmann
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Mass Flux ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ice Water Content ◽  
Ice Water

Abstract. An analysis of the Cloudnet data set collected at Leipzig, Germany, with special focus on mixed-phase layered clouds is presented. We derive liquid- and ice-water content together with vertical motions of ice particles falling through cloud base. The ice mass flux is calculated by combining measurements of ice-water content and particle Doppler velocity. The efficiency of heterogeneous ice formation and its impact on cloud lifetime is estimated for different cloud-top temperatures by relating the ice mass flux and the liquid-water content at cloud top. Cloud radar measurements of polarization and Doppler velocity indicate that ice crystals formed in mixed-phase cloud layers with a geometrical thickness of less than 350 m are mostly pristine when they fall out of the cloud.

The influence of observations propagated by convectively coupled equatorial waves

2011 ◽  
Vol 137 (656) ◽  
pp. 641-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qoosaku Moteki ◽  
Kunio Yoneyama ◽  
Ryuichi Shirooka ◽  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
Kazuaki Yasunaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

scholarly journals Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves. Part I: Horizontal and Vertical Structures

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3406-3423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gui-Ying Yang ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Julia Slingo
Keyword(s):  
Composite Structures ◽  
Wave Structure ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Ambient Flow ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
Equatorial Wave

Abstract Multilevel 15-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-15) and satellite-observed brightness temperature (Tb) data for the period May–October 1992 are used to examine the horizontal and vertical structures of convectively coupled equatorial waves. Dynamical waves are isolated using a methodology developed previously. Composite structures of convectively coupled equatorial waves are obtained using linear regression/correlation between convection (Tb) and dynamical structures. It is found that the relationship depends on the ambient flow and the nature of the convective coupling, and varies between off-equatorial- and equatorial-centered convection, different hemispheres, and seasons. The Kelvin wave structure in the Western Hemisphere is generally consistent with classic equatorial wave theory and has its convection located in the region of low-level convergence. In the Eastern Hemisphere the Kelvin wave tends to have convection in the region of enhanced lower-tropospheric westerlies and a tilted vertical structure. The Kelvin wave also tends to have a third peak in zonal wind amplitude at 500 hPa and exhibits upward propagation into the lower stratosphere. Lower-tropospheric westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave structures and their relationship with convection are consistent with classic equatorial wave theory and the implied lower-tropospheric convergences. In the Eastern Hemisphere the WMRG and R1 waves have first baroclinic mode structures in the vertical. However, in the Western Hemisphere, the R1 wave has a barotropic structure. In the Eastern Hemisphere the R1 wave, like the Kelvin wave, tends to have equatorial convection in the region of enhanced lower-level westerlies, suggesting that enhanced surface energy fluxes associated with these waves may play an important organizing role for equatorial convection in this warm-water hemisphere. In the upper troposphere, eastward-moving Rossby–gravity (EMRG) and n = 1 gravity waves are found in the Eastern Hemisphere, and eastward-moving WMRG and R1 waves are found in the Western Hemisphere, suggestive of Doppler shifting of waves by the ambient flow.

scholarly journals Large-Eddy Simulations of a Drizzling, Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (3) ◽  
pp. 1083-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew S. Ackerman ◽  
Margreet C. vanZanten ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Verica Savic-Jovcic ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Cloud Water ◽  
Large Eddy Simulations ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Cloud water sedimentation and drizzle in a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are the focus of an intercomparison of large-eddy simulations. The context is an idealized case study of nocturnal stratocumulus under a dry inversion, with embedded pockets of heavily drizzling open cellular convection. Results from 11 groups are used. Two models resolve the size distributions of cloud particles, and the others parameterize cloud water sedimentation and drizzle. For the ensemble of simulations with drizzle and cloud water sedimentation, the mean liquid water path (LWP) is remarkably steady and consistent with the measurements, the mean entrainment rate is at the low end of the measured range, and the ensemble-average maximum vertical wind variance is roughly half that measured. On average, precipitation at the surface and at cloud base is smaller, and the rate of precipitation evaporation greater, than measured. Including drizzle in the simulations reduces convective intensity, increases boundary layer stratification, and decreases LWP for nearly all models. Including cloud water sedimentation substantially decreases entrainment, decreases convective intensity, and increases LWP for most models. In nearly all cases, LWP responds more strongly to cloud water sedimentation than to drizzle. The omission of cloud water sedimentation in simulations is strongly discouraged, regardless of whether or not precipitation is present below cloud base.

scholarly journals Nature versus Nurture in Shallow Convection

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1655-1666 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Romps ◽  
Zhiming Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Nature Versus Nurture ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Single Set

Abstract Tracers are used in a large-eddy simulation of shallow convection to show that stochastic entrainment (and not cloud-base properties) determines the fate of convecting parcels. The tracers are used to diagnose the correlations between a parcel’s state above the cloud base and both the parcel’s state at the cloud base and its entrainment history. The correlation with the cloud-base state goes to zero a few hundred meters above the cloud base. On the other hand, correlations between a parcel’s state and its net entrainment are large. Evidence is found that the entrainment events may be described as a stochastic Poisson process. A parcel model is constructed with stochastic entrainment that is able to replicate the mean and standard deviation of cloud properties. Turning off cloud-base variability has little effect on the results, which suggests that stochastic mass-flux models may be initialized with a single set of properties. The success of the stochastic parcel model suggests that it holds promise as the framework for a convective parameterization.

Multiscale Convective Organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (8) ◽  
pp. 1171-1187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Martin J. Miller ◽  
Melvyn A. Shapiro ◽  
Ghassem R. Asrar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Impact Phenomena ◽  
Meteorological Systems ◽  
The Tropics

The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project recognizes that major improvements are needed in how the tropics are represented in climate models. Tropical convection is organized into multiscale precipitation systems with an underlying chaotic order. These organized systems act as building blocks for meteorological events at the intersection of weather and climate (time scales up to seasonal). These events affect a large percentage of the world's population. Much of the uncertainty associated with weather and climate derives from incomplete understanding of how meteorological systems on the mesoscale (~1–100 km), synoptic scale (~1,000 km), and planetary scale (~10,000 km) interact with each other. This uncertainty complicates attempts to predict high-impact phenomena associated with the tropical atmosphere, such as tropical cyclones, the Madden–Julian oscillation, convectively coupled tropical waves, and the monsoons. These and other phenomena influence the extratropics by migrating out of the tropics and by the remote effects of planetary waves, including those generated by the MJO. The diurnal and seasonal cycles modulate all of the above. It will be impossible to accurately predict climate on regional scales or to comprehend the variability of the global water cycle in a warmer world without comprehensively addressing tropical convection and its interactions across space and time scales.

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