Tropical cyclone simulation with Emanuel’s convection scheme

ABSTRACT. A new convection parameterization scheme proposed by Emanuel (1991) is used to simulate the evolution of tropical cyclone. The numerical model used for this study is a 19 level axi-symmetric primitive equation, hydrostatic model in a z co-ordinate system. The vertical domain ranges from 0 to 18 km and the horizontal domain ranges upto 3114 km with a resolution of 20 km. in the central 400 km radius and with increasing radial distance thereafter. The evolution of an initially balanced vortex with an initial strength of 9 m/sec is studied. It is shown that Emanuel's convection scheme is successful in simulating the development of the initial vortex into a mature, intense cyclonic storm. At the mature stage, a minimum surface pressure of 930 hPa is attained with the associated low level maximum tangential wind speed of 70 m/sec. The simulated circulation features at the mature stage show the formation of an intense cyclone. Two different sensitivity experiments were performed. A set of experiments with the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) from 300.5° to 302° K in steps of 0.5° K have shown that the intensity of model cyclone increases with the increase of SST. Another set of experiments with variation of latitude has shown that the cyclonic storm is more intense at lower latitudes.

Convection Modeling of Pure-steam Atmospheres

Condensable species are crucial to shaping planetary climate. A wide range of planetary climate systems involve understanding nondilute condensable substances and their influence on climate dynamics. There has been progress on large-scale dynamical effects and on 1D convection parameterization, but resolved 3D moist convection remains unexplored in nondilute conditions, though it can have a profound impact on temperature/humidity profiles and cloud structure. In this work, we tackle this problem for pure-steam atmospheres using three-dimensional, high-resolution numerical simulations of convection in postrunaway atmospheres. We show that the atmosphere is composed of two characteristic regions, an upper condensing region dominated by gravity waves and a lower noncondensing region characterized by convective overturning cells. Velocities in the condensing region are much smaller than those in the lower, noncondensing region, and the horizontal temperature variation is small. Condensation in the thermal photosphere is largely driven by radiative cooling and tends to be statistically homogeneous. Some condensation also happens deeper, near the boundary of the condensing region, due to triggering by gravity waves and convective penetrations and exhibits random patchiness. This qualitative structure is insensitive to varying model parameters, but quantitative details may differ. Our results confirm theoretical expectations that atmospheres close to the pure-steam limit do not have organized deep convective plumes in the condensing region. The generalized convective parameterization scheme discussed in Ding & Pierrehumbert is appropriate for handling the basic structure of atmospheres near the pure-steam limit but cannot capture gravity waves and their mixing which appear in 3D convection-resolving models.

Numerical study of western disturbances over western Himalayas using mesoscale model

Hkkjrh; {ks= esa ’khr _rq ds nkSjku if’peh fo{kksHkksa ¼MCY;w-Mh-½ dh egRoiw.kZ fo’ks"krkvksa dks izfr:fir djus ds fy, isu LVsV ;wfuoflZVh&us’kuy lsUVj Qksj ,V~eksLQsfjd fjlpZ ¼ih-,l-;w-&,u-lh-,-vkj-½ la;qDr jkT; vejhdk ds xSj ty LFkSfrd :ikUrj ds rkSj ij eslksLdsy ekWMy ¼,e- ,e- 5½ dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u esa nks xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj i)fr;ksa uker%&CySdknj ,oa gkSax&iSu rFkk pkj laogu izkpyhdj.k i)fr;ksa uker% dqvks] xzsy] dSufÝz’k ,oa csV~l&feYyj ds 60 fd- eh- ds {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy dk mi;ksx djds vkB lqxzkfgrk iz;ksx fd, x, gaSA blesa {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy rFkk LFkykÑfr ds egRo ds nks dkjdksa&30 fd-eh-] 60 fd-eh- ,oa 90 fd- eh- ds {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy ftlesa ,d fLFkfr esa LFkykÑfr ij fopkj ugha fd;k x;k gS rFkk nwljh esa lkekU; LFkykÑfr ij fopkj fd;k x;k gS] ds vk/kkj ij N% iz;ksx djds v/;;u fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ds fy, nks lfØ; if’peh fo{kksHkksa dk p;u fd;k x;k gS ftlds dkj.k if’peh fgeky; {ks= esa Hkkjh o`f"V gqbZA izFke v/;;u ds fy, 18 tuojh ls 21 tuojh] 1997 rd dh vof/k ds nkSjku ds if’peh fo{kksHk dk p;u fd;k x;k gS rFkk nwljs iz;ksx ds fy, 20 tuojh ls 25 tuojh] 1999 dh vof/k ds nkSjku ds if’peh fo{kksHk dk p;u fd;k x;k gSA blesa vkjafHkd rFkk lhekar fLFkfr;ksa ds fy, us’kuy lsUVj QkWj bu~okbjWuesUV fizMhD’ku&us’kuy lsUVj QkWj ,V~eksLQsfjd fjlpZ ¼,u- lh- b- ih-&,u- lh- , - vkj-½ la;qDr jkT; vejhdk }kjk iqufoZ’ysf"kr vkaadM+ksa dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ls ;g irk pyk gS fd gkSax&iSu vkSj csV~l feYyj dh Øe’k% xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj rFkk es?k laogu izkpyhdj.k i)fr ds la;kstu dk izn’kZu mi;ksx dh xbZ vU; la;kstu i)fr;ksa ds rqyuk esa lcls vPNk jgk gSA vkn’kZ HkkSfrdh ¼ekWMy fQftDl½ vU; la;kstu i)fr;ksa dh rqyuk esa bl la;kstu ds }kjk leqnz ry dk nkc T;knk lgh izfr:fir djus esa l{ke jgh gSA blds vykok LFkykÑfr jfgr {ks= esa if’peh fo{kksHk dk izfr:i.k lkekU; LFkykÑfr esa izfr:fIkr if’peh fo{kksHk dh rqyuk esa de o"kkZ dh ek=k dks n’kkZrk gSA tc blesa lkekU; LFkykÑfr dks ’kkfey fd;k x;k rks fgeky; {ks= ds vkl&ikl Hkkjh o"kkZ gqbZA o"kkZ ds {ks=ksa ds ,dhÑr ekWMy lR;kfir fo’ys"k.k ds vuq:Ik ik, x, gaSA o"kkZ {ks=ksa ds lqxzkfgrk v/;;u ls irk pyk gS fd NksVs izHkko& {ks= ¼30 fd-eh-½ ds izfr:fir ekWMy vPNs ifj.kke nsrs gSaA ” A non-hydrostatic version of the Penn State University - National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR), US, Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate the characteristic features of the Western Disturbances (WDs) occurred over the Indian region during winter. In the present study sensitivity eight experiments are carried out by using two planetary boundary layer schemes, viz., Blackadar and Hong-Pan, and four convection parameterization schemes, viz., Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fristch and Betts-Miller, with 60 km horizontal model resolution. And also the role of horizontal model resolution and topography is studied by carrying out six experiments based on two factors: horizontal model resolution of 30 km, 60 km and 90 km with assumed no topography and normal topography. For this study two active WDs are chosen which yielded extensive precipitation over western Himalayas. WD from 18 to 21 January 1997 is chosen for study one and WD from 20 to 25 January 1999 is chosen for experiment two. National Center for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), US, reanalyzed data is used for initial and boundary conditions. It is found that the performance of combination of the Hong-Pan and Betts-Miller as planetary boundary layer and cloud convection parameterization schemes respectively is best compared to the other combinations of schemes used in this study. The model physics could able to simulate sea level pressure better with this combination as compared to the combinations with other schemes. Further, WD simulations with assumed no topography shows lesser amount of precipitation compared to WD simulations with normal topography. When normal topography is included, intense localized of precipitation was observed along the Himalayan range. Model integrations of precipitation fields are found close to the corresponding verification analysis. Sensitivity studies of precipitation field shows that finer domain (30 km) of the model simulation gives better results.

Understanding model diversity in future precipitation projections for South America

Precipitation patterns are expected to change in the future climate, affecting humans through a number of factors. Global climate models (GCM) are our best tools for projecting large-scale changes in climate, but they cannot make reliable projections locally. To abate this problem, we have downscaled three GCMs with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 50 km horizontal resolution over South America, and 10 km resolution for central Chile, Peru and southern Brazil. Historical simulations for years 1996–2005 generally compare well to precipitation observations and reanalyses. Future simulations for central Chile show reductions in annual precipitation and increases in the number of dry days at the end-of-the-century for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, regardless of resolution and GCM boundary conditions used. However, future projections for Peru and southern Brazil are more uncertain, and simulations show that increasing the model resolution can switch the sign of precipitation projections. Differences in future precipitation changes between global/regional and high resolution (10 km) are only mildly influenced by the orography resolution, but linked to the convection parameterization, reflected in very different changes in dry static energy flux divergence, vertical velocity and boundary layer height. Our findings imply that using results directly from GCMs, and even from coarse-resolution (50 km) regional models, may give incorrect conclusions about regional-scale precipitation projections. While climate modelling at convection-permitting scales is computationally costly, we show that coarse-resolution regional simulations using a scale-aware convection parameterization, instead of a more conventional scheme, better mirror fine-resolution precipitation projections.

The Grell–Freitas (GF) convection parameterization: recent developments, extensions, and applications

Recent developments and options in the GF (Grell and Freitas, 2014; Freitas et al., 2018) convection parameterization are presented. The parameterization has been expanded to a trimodal spectral size to simulate three convection modes: shallow, congestus, and deep. In contrast to usual entrainment and detrainment assumptions, we assume that beta functions (BFs), commonly applied to represent probability density functions (PDFs), can be used to characterize the vertical mass flux profiles for the three modes and use the BFs to derive entrainment and detrainment rates. We also added a new closure for nonequilibrium convection that improved the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convection, with a better representation of the transition from shallow to deep convection regimes over land. The transport of chemical constituents (including wet deposition) can be treated inside the GF scheme. The tracer transport is handled in flux form and is mass-conserving. Finally, the cloud microphysics have been extended to include the ice phase to simulate the conversion from liquid water to ice in updrafts with resulting additional heat release and the melting from snow to rain.

Evaluation and Comparison of Two Deep Convection Parameterization Schemes at Convection-Permitting Resolution

Coarse-grained results from a large-eddy simulation (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) were compared in this study with the WRF simulations at a typical convection-permitting horizontal grid spacing of 3 km for an idealized case of deep moist convection. The purpose of this comparison is to identify major differences at the subgrid process level between two widely-used deep convection parameterization schemes in the WRF model. It is shown that there are considerable differences in subgrid process representations between the two schemes due to different parameterization formulations and underlying assumptions. The two schemes not only differ in trigger function, subgrid cloud model, and closure assumptions but also disagree with the coarse-grained LES results in terms of vertical mass flux profiles. Thus, it is difficult to discern which scheme is more advantageous over the other at the subgrid process level. The conclusions from this study highlight the importance of establishing benchmarks using observations and LES to develop and evaluate convection parameterization schemes suitable for models at convection-permitting resolution.

Evaluating the Performance of Cumulus Convection Parameterization Schemes in Regional Climate Modeling System

In this study, we explored the performance of the cumulus convection parameterization schemes of Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM) towards the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) of a catastrophic year through various numerical experiments conducted with different convection schemes (Kuo, Grell amd MIT) in RegCM. The model is integrated at 60KM horizontal resolution over Indian region and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The simulated temperature at 2m and the wind at 10m are validated against the forced data and the total precipitation is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) observations. We find that the simulation with MIT convection scheme is close to the GPCC data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Our results with three convection schemes suggest that the RegCM with MIT convection scheme successfully simulated some characteristics of ISM of a catastrophic year and may be further examined with more number of convection schemes to customize which convection scheme is much better.