scholarly journals Pacific Decadal Variability: Paced by Rossby Basin Modes?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1445-1456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilbert Weijer ◽  
Ernesto Muñoz ◽  
Niklas Schneider ◽  
François Primeau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Pressure Field ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract A systematic study is presented of decadal climate variability in the North Pacific. In particular, the hypothesis is addressed that oceanic Rossby basin modes are responsible for enhanced energy at decadal and bidecadal time scales. To this end, a series of statistical analyses are performed on a 500-yr control integration of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). In particular, a principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis is performed to identify modal behavior in the subsurface pressure field. It is found that the dominant energy of sea surface temperature (SST) variability at 25 yr (the model equivalent of the Pacific decadal oscillation) cannot be explained by the resonant excitation of an oceanic basin mode. However, significant energy in the subsurface pressure field at time scales of 17 and 10 yr appears to be related to internal ocean oscillations. However, these oscillations lack the characteristics of the classical basin modes, and must either be deformed beyond recognition by the background circulation and inhomogeneous stratification or have another dynamical origin altogether. The 17-yr oscillation projects onto the Pacific decadal oscillation and, if present in the real ocean, has the potential to enhance the predictability of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific.

Decadal Relationship between the Stratospheric Arctic Vortex and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3371-3386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dingzhu Hu ◽  
Zhaoyong Guan
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the relationship between the stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on decadal time scales was investigated. A significant in-phase relationship between the PDO and SAV on decadal time scales during 1950–2014 is found, that is, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) associated with the positive (negative) PDO phases is closely related to the strengthening (weakening) of the SAV. This decadal relationship between the North Pacific SST and SAV is different from their relationship on subdecadal time scales. Observational and modeling results both demonstrate that the decadal variation in the SAV is strongly affected by the North Pacific SSTs related to the PDO via modifying the upward propagation of planetary wavenumber-1 waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The decreased SSTs over the North Pacific tend to result in a deepened Aleutian low along with a strengthened jet stream over the North Pacific, which excites a weakened western Pacific pattern and a strengthened Pacific–North American pattern. These tropospheric circulation anomalies are in accordance with the decreased refractive index (RI) at middle and high latitudes in the northern stratosphere during the positive PDO phase. The increased RI at high latitudes in the upper troposphere impedes the planetary wavenumber-1 wave from propagating into the stratosphere, and in turn strengthens the SAV. The responses of the RI to the PDO are mainly contributions of the changes in the meridional gradient of the zonal-mean potential vorticity via alteration of the baroclinic term .

scholarly journals South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 6051-6069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiale Lou ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Terence J. O’Kane
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave–topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific–South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific—albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability.

Interannual Variation of Annual Subduction Rate in the North Pacific Estimated from a Gridded Argo Product

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 2276-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsuya Toyama ◽  
Aiko Iwasaki ◽  
Toshio Suga
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
Subtropical Mode Water ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Mode Water ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central Mode ◽  
Subduction Rate ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractSpatiotemporal variability of the subduction rate in the North Pacific from 2005 to 2012 is examined based on the Argo observational data. The subduction rate in the subtropical North Pacific varies significantly from year to year between 25 and 50 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), and it is well correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. The temporal change of the subduction rate is largely determined by that of the late winter mixed layer depth through the lateral induction term. The increase (decrease) in the subduction rate in the subtropical mode water areas accompanies densification (lightening) of the mode density class of the subducted water. The subduction rate variability in the central mode water and eastern subtropical mode water regions is anticorrelated as found in the previous study using the output from an ocean GCM. The subduction rate in the central mode water density range changes dramatically, which is very large in 2005 and 2010 but almost disappears in 2009. The subduction rate variability in the western subtropical mode water regions seems to be correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation with a lag of a few years.

scholarly journals Distinguishing the Quasi-Decadal and Multidecadal Sea Level and Climate Variations in the Pacific: Implications for the ENSO-Like Low-Frequency Variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (13) ◽  
pp. 5097-5117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kewei Lyu ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Jianyu Hu ◽  
Jin-Yi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North Pacific

Low-frequency sea level variations with periods longer than interannual time scales have been receiving much attention recently, with the aim of distinguishing the anthropogenic regional sea level change signal from the natural fluctuations. Based on the available sea level products, this study finds that the dominant low-frequency sea level mode in the Pacific basin has both quasi-decadal variations and a multidecadal trend reversal in the early 1990s. The dominant sea level modes on these two time scales have different tropical structures: a west–east seesaw in the tropical Pacific on the multidecadal time scale and a dipole between the western and central tropical Pacific on the quasi-decadal time scale. These two sea level modes in the Pacific basin are closely related to the ENSO-like low-frequency climate variability on respective time scales but feature distinct surface wind forcing patterns and subbasin climate processes. The multidecadal sea level mode is associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Aleutian low variations in the North Pacific and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies toward the eastern basin, while the quasi-decadal sea level mode is accompanied by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies centered in the central basin along with the North Pacific part, which resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its oceanic expressions [i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Victoria mode]. The authors further conclude that the ENSO-like low-frequency variability, which has dominant influences on the Pacific sea level and climate, comprises at least two distinct modes with different spatial structures on quasi-decadal and multidecadal time scales, respectively.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates Tropical Cyclone days in the North Pacific Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonio Navarra
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Mode ◽  
The North Pacific

<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Pacific Ocean claim a major socio-economic toll on a yearly basis, and their impacts are projected to be exacerbated due to climate change and increased exposure and vulnerability. Recent examples of Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Hagibis (2019) are a reminder of the devastating impacts these storms can have. While the TC activity in the West North Pacific (WNP) and East North Pacific (ENP)  has been the subject of intense investigation, these basins are generally treated separately, rather than considering the storm activity in the North Pacific as a single basin. The influence of climate processes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ,  that operate across the entire North Pacific may not have been considered by focusing on the sub-basins, especially if we are interested in multi-annual and decadal changes. It is reasonable to hypothesize that a climate mode like the PDO could play an important role in terms of TC activity in this basin. However, there is limited evidence that connects these storms and the PDO. Our expectation is that the number of TC days is related to the PDO through the modulation of this climate mode of the SST in the regions where these storms develop. In particular, during the positive phase of the PDO, warm waters close to the equator would lead to conditions favorable to the development of longer-lasting storms compared to the negative PDO phase, which is characterized by lower SST values. We believe that this connection has not been sufficiently considered in the literature because the North Pacific Ocean was not considered as a single basin but broken up into WNP and ENP, confounding the detection of a potential PDO signal. Therefore, in this work we focus on the potential role of the PDO in modulating TC activity, with emphasis on the number of TC active days in the entire North Pacific Ocean. We have selected this metric because the number of TC days provides an integrated information about TC genesis, lifespan, and tracks, and because it exhibits substantial decadal-scale oscillations in TC activity compared to other metrics used to highlight TC activity. We aim to verify the effects of different SST patterns on the spatial distribution of TC genesis in the North Pacific leading to conditions that are more/less favorable for long-lasting TCs under positive/negative PDO phases. A larger number of TC days for storms that tend to develop along the tropics during the positive PDO phase is found. When we stratify the years according to the sign of the PDO phase, the years associated with the positive phase tend to have storms that form at a lower latitude and that last longer  compared with the negative phase. On average, these storms tend to form around 14°N and to result in 240 TC days; during the negative PDO phase, TCs tend to form around 16°N, for a total of 160 TC days.</p>

scholarly journals Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Tropical Pacific Forcing versus Internal Variability

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8265-8279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Jun-Chao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Conversion ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Barotropic Energy Conversion ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific (north of 20°N). Its South Pacific counterpart (south of 20°S) is the South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO). The effects of tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) SST forcing and internal atmospheric variability are investigated for both the PDO and SPDO using a 10-member ensemble tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment. Each member is forced by the historical radiative forcing and observed SST anomalies in the TEP region. Outside the TEP region, the ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled and freely evolve. The TEP-forced PDO (54% variance) and SPDO (46% variance) are correlated in time and exhibit a symmetric structure about the equator, driven by the Pacific–North American (PNA) and Pacific–South American teleconnections, respectively. The internal PDO resembles the TEP-forced component but is related to internal Aleutian low (AL) variability associated with the Northern Hemisphere annular mode and PNA pattern. The internal variability is locally enhanced by barotropic energy conversion in the westerly jet exit region around the Aleutians. By contrast, barotropic energy conversion is weak associated with the internal SPDO, resulting in weak geographical preference of sea level pressure variability. Therefore, the internal SPDO differs from the TEP-forced component, featuring SST anomalies along ~60°S in association with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. The limitations on isolating the internal component from observations are discussed. Specifically, internal PDO variability appears to contribute significantly to the North Pacific regime shift in the 1940s.

Geographical restriction as a guide to the causes of extinction: the case of the cold northern oceans during the Neogene

Paleobiology ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geerat J. Vermeij
Keyword(s):  
Primary Productivity ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Late Neogene ◽  
The North Pacific

Geographical restriction to refuges implies the regional extinction of taxa in areas of the previous range falling outside the refuge. A comparison of the circumstances in the refuge with those in areas from which the taxa were eliminated is potentially informative for pinpointing the causes of extinction. A synthesis of data on the geographical and stratigraphical distributions of cool-water molluscs of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans during the late Neogene reveals four patterns of geographical restriction, at least two of which imply that climatic cooling was not the only cause of extinction during the last several million years. These four patterns are (1) the northwestern Pacific restriction, involving 15 taxa whose amphi-Pacific distributions during the late Neogene became subsequently restricted to the Asian side of the Pacific; (2) the northwestern Atlantic restriction, involving six taxa whose early Pleistocene distribution is inferred to have been amphi-Atlantic, but whose present-day and late Pleistocene ranges are confined to the northwestern Atlantic; (3) a vicariant Pacific pattern, in which many ancestral amphi-Pacific taxa gave rise to separate eastern and western descendants; and (4) the circumboreal restriction, involving six taxa whose early Pleistocene distribution, encompassing both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, became subsequently limited to the North Pacific. Like the Pliocene extinctions in the Atlantic, previously studied by Stanley and others, the vicariant Pacific pattern is most reasonably interpreted as having resulted from regional extinction of northern populations in response to cooling. The northwestern Pacific and Atlantic restrictions, however, cannot be accounted for in this way. In contrast to the northeastern margins of the Pacific and Atlantic, the northwestern margins are today characterized by wide temperature fluctuations and by extensive development of shore ice in winter. Northeastern, rather than northwestern, restriction would be expected if cooling were the overriding cause of regional extinction. Among the other possible causes of extinction, only a decrease in primary productivity can account for the observed northwestern and circumboreal patterns of restriction. Geographical patterns of body size and the distribution of siliceous deposits provide supporting evidence that primary productivity declined after the Miocene in the northeastern Pacific, but remained high in the northwestern Pacific, and that productivity in the Pacific is generally higher than it is in the Atlantic. The patterns of geographical restriction in the northern oceans thus provide additional support to previous inferences that reductions in primary productivity have played a significant role in marine extinctions.

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