A regional geomagnetic field model over Southern Africa derived with harmonic splines from Swarm satellite and ground-based data recorded between 2014 and 2019

A regional harmonic spline geomagnetic main field model, Southern Africa Core Field Model (SACFM-3), is derived from Swarm satellite and ground-based data for the southern African region, in the eastern part of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the field intensity continues to decrease. Using SACFM-3 and the global CHAOS-6-×9 model, a detailed study was conducted to shed light on the high spatial and temporal geomagnetic field variations over Southern Africa between 2014 and 2019. The results show a steady decrease of the radial component Z in almost the entire region. In 2019, its rate of decrease in the western part of the region has reached high values, 76 nT/year and 78 nT/year at Tsumeb and Keetmanshoop magnetic observatories, respectively. For some areas in the western part of the region the radial component Z and field intensity F have decreased in strength, from 1.0 to 1.3% and from 0.9 to 1.2%, respectively, between the epochs 2014.5 and 2019.5. There is a noticeable decrease of the field intensity from the south-western coast of South Africa expanding towards the north and eastern regions. The results show that the SAA area is continuing to grow in the region. Abrupt changes in the linear secular variation in 2016 and 2017 are confirmed in the region using ground-based data, and the X component shows an abrupt change in the secular variation in 2018 at four magnetic observatories (Hermanus, Hartebeesthoek, Tsumeb and Keetmanshoop) that needs further investigation. The regional model SACFM-3 reflects to some extent these fast core field variations in the Z component at Hermanus, Hartebeesthoek and Keetmanshoop observatories. Graphical Abstract

Review of Long-Term Trends in the Equatorial Ionosphere Due the Geomagnetic Field Secular Variations and Its Relevance to Space Weather

The Earth’s ionosphere presents long-term trends that have been of interest since a pioneering study in 1989 suggesting that greenhouse gases increasing due to anthropogenic activity will produce not only a troposphere global warming, but a cooling in the upper atmosphere as well. Since then, long-term changes in the upper atmosphere, and particularly in the ionosphere, have become a significant topic in global change studies with many results already published. There are also other ionospheric long-term change forcings of natural origin, such as the Earth’s magnetic field secular variation with very special characteristics at equatorial and low latitudes. The ionosphere, as a part of the space weather environment, plays a crucial role to the point that it could certainly be said that space weather cannot be understood without reference to it. In this work, theoretical and experimental results on equatorial and low-latitude ionospheric trends linked to the geomagnetic field secular variation are reviewed and analyzed. Controversies and gaps in existing knowledge are identified together with important areas for future study. These trends, although weak when compared to other ionospheric variations, are steady and may become significant in the future and important even now for long-term space weather forecasts.

Physics-based secular variation candidate models for the IGRF

Each International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model released under the auspices of the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy comprises a secular variation component that describes the evolution of the main magnetic field anticipated for the 5 years to come. Every Gauss coefficient, up to spherical harmonic degree and order 8, is assumed to undergo its own independent linear evolution. With a mathematical model of the core magnetic field and its time rate of change constructed from geomagnetic observations at hand, a standard prediction of the secular variation (SV) consists of taking the time rate of change of each Gauss coefficient at the final time of analysis as the predicted rate of change. The last three generations of the IGRF have additionally witnessed a growing number of candidate SV models relying upon physics-based forecasts. This surge is motivated by satellite data that now span more than two decades and by the concurrent progress in the numerical modelling of Earth’s core dynamics. Satellite data reveal rapid (interannual) geomagnetic features whose imprint can be detrimental to the quality of the IGRF prediction. This calls for forecasting frameworks able to incorporate at least part of the processes responsible for short-term geomagnetic variations. In this letter, we perform a retrospective analysis of the performance of past IGRF SV models and candidates over the past 35 years; we emphasize that over the satellite era, the quality of the 5-year forecasts worsens at times of rapid geomagnetic changes. After the definition of the time scales that are relevant for the IGRF prediction exercise, we cover the strategies followed by past physics-based candidates, which we categorize into a “‘core–surface flow” family and a “dynamo” family, noting that both strategies resort to “input” models of the main field and its secular variation constructed from observations. We next review practical lessons learned from our previous attempts. Finally, we discuss possible improvements on the current state of affairs in two directions: the feasibility of incorporating rapid physical processes into the analysis on the one hand, and the accuracy and quantification of the uncertainty impacting input models on the other hand.

A STUDY OF THE SECULAR VARIATION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE DELTA SCUTI STAR AD CMI

We determine the nature of the Delta Scuti star AD CMi and its physical parameters from newly determined times of maximum light and other times from the literature, as well as from uvby −β photoelectric photometry.

Signs of a new geomagnetic jerk between 2019 and 2020 from Swarm and observatory data

Following the observed pattern of a new geomagnetic jerk every 3–4 years, certain predictions suggested that a new event should occur around 2020 after the one observed around 2017.5. In this work, we explore this scenario by analysing the secular variation of the East geomagnetic field component in both ground and satellite geomagnetic data. At ground, we use the available data from 2015 to 2021 in 10 observatories worldwide distributed. This analysis shows the occurrence of the mentioned jerk in mid-2017 at observatories located in the Pacific region, but also reveals a new jerk between mid-2019 and early 2020 with a clear global character. Swarm satellite data also corroborate these findings by means of the secular variation estimated using virtual observatories at 440 km altitude. In addition, a general view using the most recent CHAOS geomagnetic model confirms the global character of the 2020-jerk with V-shaped secular variation changes in meridional sectors covering the Eastern Pacific, America, Asia and the Indian Ocean; and Λ-shapes in Europe, Africa and Western Pacific. The radial geomagnetic field at the core–mantle boundary is investigated as the origin of the new jerk. Results show that the global-average secular acceleration of the radial field exhibits a new pulse at mid-2018, establishing the starting epoch of the 2020-jerk.

Study of the Correction Method of Secular Variation in the Main Geomagnetic Field by the Field Seismogeomagnetic Survey

The correction of the secular variation (SV) of the main geomagnetic field is a key link of field seismogeomagnetic data processing, and the current method relies on the observatory data for the relevant technical processing. To optimize the data products and obtain more accurate and reliable seismomagnetic information, this study adopted a new technical idea, which uses the repeated survey data from field stations to obtain the SV of the main geomagnetic field over the survey area by the weighted least-squares method, and compared the results with those of the current methods. The results were as follows: 1. The SV results of the main geomagnetic field produced by the new method are closer to those of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF)_SV model. The mean square error (MSE) of the difference of the three elements F, D, and I between the new method and the IGRF_SV model is 10.7%, 47.0%, and 14.5% of that of the original method, respectively. 2. By applying the new SV correction method, more stable and reasonable variations in Earth’s crustal magnetic field can be obtained. The average amplitude of the Earth’s crustal magnetic field variation in the three elements F, D, and I is 28.5%, 55.4%, and 34.4 of the original results, the MSE is 59.1%, 56.5%, and 40.3% of the original results, and the mean gradient is 93.6%, 91.9%, and 97.0%, respectively. 3. In the processed results of the new method, the seismomagnetic information is clearly optimized, and the location of the epicenter is more consistent with the 0 value line of the Earth’s crustal magnetic field. The processed results of the new method are significantly better than those of the original method and have a higher application value.

Dependence of the velocity changes of secular variations on the position of observatory and time

According to the data of world observatories net secular variations of geomagnetic fields from internal and outer sources have been studied. Averaged 3-year data have been used for this purpose. Procedure of calculations of secular variations from internal and outer sources according to observatories data has been submitted. 1979 has been chosen as a zero level for accounting secular variations from outer sources because the sign of the large-scale magnetic field has changed this year. It has been shown that the value of secular variations from outer sources is different for different regions and increases with the growth of the latitude of magnetic observatory. Maximal values of secular variations are observed in the northern polar cap as well as at the longitudes of the eastern focus of secular variation. It has been shown that at the DIK, CSS, TIK observatories secular variations have maximal values. Groups of observatories have been segregated with symmetric and asymmetric changes of secular variation comparing to 1979. Symmetric changes of secular variation during two Hail’s cycles are observed at the observatories in circumpolar area (ALE, NAL, BJN), in auroral and middle latitudes. Maximal asymmetry of secular variation is observed at the observatories GDH, BLC, FCC, as well as at certain subauroral observatories and the regions with raised seismic activity. Secular variation from outer sources depends on the value of the large scale magnetic field of the Sun. The value of secular variation from the inner sources has been modulated by the outer sources and depends on special features of underlying surfaces of the observatories, induction currents in particular.