scholarly journals Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3708-3727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingwen Jiang ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Yueqing Li ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Xiangwen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Monsoon Indices

Abstract The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is an important source of information for seasonal climate prediction in many Asian countries affected by monsoon climate. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the prediction of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) by the new CFS version 2 (CFSv2) using the hindcast for 1983–2010, focusing on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Many ASM features are well predicted by the CFSv2, including heavy monsoon rainfall centers, large-scale monsoon circulation patterns, and monsoon onset and retreat features. Several commonly used dynamical monsoon indices and their associated precipitation and circulation patterns can be predicted several months in advance. The CFSv2 has better skill in predicting the Southeast Asian monsoon than predicting the South Asian monsoon. Compared to CFS version 1 (CFSv1), the CFSv2 has increased skill in predicting large-scale monsoon circulation and precipitation features but decreased skill for the South Asian monsoon, although some biases in the CFSv1 still exist in the CFSv2, especially the weaker-than-observed western Pacific subtropical high and the exaggerated strong link of the ASM to ENSO. Comparison of CFSv2 hindcast with output from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations indicates that exclusion of ocean–atmosphere coupling leads to a weaker ASM. Compared to AMIP, both hindcast and CMIP show a more realistic annual cycle of precipitation, and the interannual variability of the ASM is better in hindcast. However, CMIP does not show any advantage in depicting the processes associated with the interannual variability of major dynamical monsoon indices compared to AMIP.

scholarly journals Relative Roles of Land–Sea Distribution and Orography in Asian Monsoon Intensity

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 2714-2729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfeng Xu ◽  
Congbin Fu ◽  
Yongfu Qian
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract The relative impacts of various land–sea distributions (LSDs) and mountains on Asian monsoon extent and intensity are assessed using a series of AGCM simulations. The air–sea coupling effects are not considered in this study. All simulations were integrated with zonal mean SST, globally uniform vegetation, soil color, and, except several simulations, soil texture. The results show that the LSD plays a more fundamental role than orography in determining the extent of Asian and African monsoons. The tropical zonal LSD and Asian mountains both play a crucial role for establishing summer monsoon convection over the South Asian region. The monsoon circulation index (MCI1) defined by the difference of zonal wind between 850 and 200 hPa is used to measure the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon. The large-scale meridional land–sea thermal contrast between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean only induces a 1.8 m s−1 increase of MCI1. The presence of the Indian subcontinent and Indochina peninsula (Asian mountains), however, induces a 6.6 (7.4) m s−1 increase of MCI1 associated with the release of latent heat of condensation. Clearly, the tropical subcontinental-scale zonal LSD and the Asian mountains almost equally contribute to the increase of MCI1 and play a more important role than the large-scale meridional LSD between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean. Possible mechanisms of how the tropical subcontinental-scale zonal LSD and Asian mountains impact the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation are also discussed.

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3755-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Yang ◽  
Zuqiang Zhang ◽  
Vernon E. Kousky ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins ◽  
Soo-Hyun Yoo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Abstract Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual variability of major precipitation centers and atmospheric circulation systems. The model captures the onset of the monsoon better than the retreat of the monsoon, and it simulates the seasonal march of monsoon rainfall over Southeast Asia more realistically than that over South Asia. The CFS predicts the major dynamical monsoon indices and monsoon precipitation patterns several months in advance. It also depicts the interactive oceanic–atmospheric processes associated with the precipitation anomalies reasonably well at different time leads. Overall, the skill of monsoon prediction by the CFS mainly comes from the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFS produces weaker-than-observed large-scale monsoon circulation, due partially to the cold bias over the Asian continent. It tends to overemphasize the relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon, as well as the impact of ENSO on the Asian and Indo-Pacific climate. A higher-resolution version of the CFS (T126) captures the climatology and variability of the Asian monsoon more realistically than does the current resolution version (T62). The largest improvement occurs in the simulations of precipitation near the Tibetan Plateau and over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the zonal dipole mode structure. The analysis suggests that NCEP’s next operational model may perform better in simulating and predicting the monsoon climate over Asia and the Indo-Pacific Oceans.

scholarly journals Role of Thermal Condition over Asia in the Weakening Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming Background

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3431-3436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyan Zuo ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Plausible Reason

The large-scale Asian summer monsoon circulation has experienced a weakening tendency in recent decades. Using observed data and output from model experiments with the atmospheric component of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, the authors show that a relatively smaller warming in Asia compared to the surrounding regions may be a plausible reason for this change in the monsoon. Although the surface temperature over Asia has increased, the landmass has become a relative “heat sink” because of the larger warming in other regions of the world. Indeed, over Asia, the vertically integrated tropospheric temperature in the most recent decades is colder than that in the earlier decades, a feature different from the characteristics outside Asia.

scholarly journals Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. eabg3848
Author(s):  
Steven C. Clemens ◽  
Masanobu Yamamoto ◽  
Kaustubh Thirumalai ◽  
Liviu Giosan ◽  
Julie N. Richey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Orbital Eccentricity ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.

scholarly journals Upper tropospheric CO and O<sub>3</sub> budget during the Asian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Barret ◽  
B. Sauvage ◽  
Y. Bennouna ◽  
E. Le Flochmoen
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Gangetic Plain ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract. During the Asian Summer Monsoon, the circulation in the Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) is dominated by the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Pollutants convectively uplifted to the upper troposphere are trapped within this anticyclonic circulation that extends from the Pacific Ocean to the eastern Mediterranean basin. Among the uplifted pollutants are ozone (O3) and its precursors, such as carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Many studies based on global modelisation and satellite data have documented the source regions and transport pathways of primary pollutants (CO, HCN) into the AMA. Here, we aim to quantify the O3 budget by taking into consideration anthropogenic and natural sources. We first use CO and O3 data from the Metop-A/IASI sensor to document their tropospheric distributions over Asia, taking advantage of the useful information they provide on the vertical dimension. These satellite data are used together with MOZAIC/IAGOS tropospheric profiles recorded in India to validate the distributions simulated by the global GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Over the Asian region, UTLS monthly CO and O3 distributions from IASI and GEOS-Chem display the same large-scale features. UTLS CO columns from GEOS-Chem are in agreement with IASI, with a low bias of 11 ± 9% and a correlation coefficient of 0.70. For O3, the model underestimates IASI UTLS columns over Asia by 14 ± 26% but the correlation between both is high (0.94). GEOS-Chem is further used to quantify the CO and O3 budget through sensitivity simulations. For CO, these simulations confirm that South-Asian anthropogenic emissions have a more important impact on enhanced concentrations within the AMA (∼25 ppbv) than East-Asian emissions (∼10 ppbv). The correlation between enhanced emissions over the Indo–gangetic–Plain and monsoon deep convection is responsible for this larger impact. Consistently, South-Asian anthropogenic NOx emissions also play a larger role in producing O3 within the AMA (∼8 ppbv) than East-Asian emissions (∼5 ppbv) but Asian lightning produced NOx are responsible for the largest O3 production (10–14 ppbv). Stratosphere to Troposphere Exchanges (STE) are also important in transporting O3 in the upper part of the AMA.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability in the Large-Scale Dynamics of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3731-3750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Walker ◽  
Simona Bordoni ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract This study identifies coherent and robust large-scale atmospheric patterns of interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in observational data. A decomposition of the water vapor budget into dynamic and thermodynamic components shows that interannual variability of SASM net precipitation (P − E) is primarily caused by variations in winds rather than in moisture. Linear regression analyses reveal that strong monsoons are distinguished from weak monsoons by a northward expansion of the cross-equatorial monsoonal circulation, with increased precipitation in the ascending branch. Interestingly, and in disagreement with the view of monsoons as large-scale sea-breeze circulations, strong monsoons are associated with a decreased meridional gradient in the near-surface atmospheric temperature in the SASM region. Teleconnections exist from the SASM region to the Southern Hemisphere, whose midlatitude poleward eddy energy flux correlates with monsoon strength. Possible implications of these teleconnection patterns for understanding SASM interannual variability are discussed.

scholarly journals Characteristics of a persistent "pool of inhibited cloudiness" and its genesis over the Bay of Bengal associated with the Asian summer monsoon

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 1247-1252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anish Kumar M. Nair ◽  
K. Rajeev ◽  
S. Sijikumar ◽  
S. Meenu
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Spatial Gradient ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract. Using spatial and vertical distributions of clouds derived from multi-year spaceborne observations, this paper presents the characteristics of a significant "pool of inhibited cloudiness" covering an area of >106 km2 between 3–13° N and 77–90° E over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), persisting throughout the Asian summer monsoon season (ASM). Seasonal mean precipitation rate over the "pool" is <3 mm day−1 while that over the surrounding regions is mostly in the range of 6–14 mm day−1. Frequency of occurrence of clouds in this "pool" is ~20–40 % less than that over the surrounding deep convective regions. Zonal and meridional cross sections of the altitude distribution of clouds derived from CloudSat data reveal a vault-like structure at the "pool" with little cloudiness below ~7 km, indicating that this "pool" is almost fully contributed by the substantially reduced or near-absence of low- and middle-level clouds. This suggest the absence of convection in the "pool" region. Spaceborne scatterometer observations show divergence of surface wind at the "pool" and convergence at its surroundings, suggesting the existence of a mini-circulation embedded in the large-scale monsoon circulation. Reanalysis data shows a mini-circulation extending between the surface and ~3 km altitude, but its spatial structure does not match well with that inferred from the above observations. Sea surface at the south BoB during ASM is sufficiently warm to trigger convection, but is inhibited by the subsidence associated with the mini-circulation, resulting in the "pool". This mini-circulation might be a dynamical response of the atmosphere to the substantial spatial gradient of latent heating by large-scale cloudiness and precipitation at the vast and geographically fixed convective zones surrounding the "pool". Subsidence at the "pool" might contribute to the maintenance of convection at the above zones and be an important component of ASM that is overlooked hitherto.

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