scholarly journals Robust Strengthening and Westward Shift of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation during 1979–2012: A Comparison of 7 Sets of Reanalysis Data and 26 CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 3097-3118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuangmei Ma ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Section ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Independent Observations ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract In this study, the zonal mass streamfunction Ψ, which depicts intuitively the tropical Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) structure characterized by an enclosed and clockwise rotation cell in the zonal–vertical section over the equatorial Pacific, was used to study the changes of PWC spatial structure during 1979–2012. To examine the robustness of changes in PWC characteristics, the linear trends of PWC were evaluated and compared among the current seven sets of reanalysis data, along with a comparison to the trends of surface climate variables. The spatial pattern of Ψ trend exhibited a strengthening and westward-shifting trend of PWC in all reanalysis datasets, with the significantly positive Ψ dominating the western Pacific and negative Ψ controlling the eastern Pacific. This kind of change is physically in agreement with the changes of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface winds, and precipitation derived from both the reanalyses and independent observations. Quantitative analyses of the changes in the PWC intensity and western edge, defined based on the zonal mass streamfunction, also revealed a robust strengthening and westward-shifting trend among all reanalysis datasets, with a trend of 15.08% decade−1 and 3.70° longitude decade−1 in the ensemble mean of seven sets of reanalysis data, with the strongest (weakest) intensification of 17.53% decade−1 (7.96% decade−1) in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (NCEP-2) and largest (smallest) westward shift of −4.68° longitude decade−1 (−2.55° longitude decade−1) in JRA-55 (JRA-25). In response to the recent observed La Niña–like anomalous SST forcing, the ensemble simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with 26 models in the ensemble, reasonably reproduced the observed strengthening and westward-shifting trend of PWC, implying the dominant forcing of the La Niña–like SST anomalies to the recent PWC change.

scholarly journals Impact of Resolution on the Tropical Pacific Circulation in a Matrix of Coupled Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2541-2556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
A. Clayton ◽  
M.-E. Demory ◽  
J. Donners ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Results are presented from a matrix of coupled model integrations, using atmosphere resolutions of 135 and 90 km, and ocean resolutions of 1° and 1/3°, to study the impact of resolution on simulated climate. The mean state of the tropical Pacific is found to be improved in the models with a higher ocean resolution. Such an improved mean state arises from the development of tropical instability waves, which are poorly resolved at low resolution; these waves reduce the equatorial cold tongue bias. The improved ocean state also allows for a better simulation of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Several sensitivity studies have been performed to further understand the processes involved in the different component models. Significantly decreasing the horizontal momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the lower-resolution ocean has benefits for the mean tropical Pacific climate, but decreases model stability. Increasing the momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the higher-resolution ocean degrades the simulation toward that of the lower-resolution ocean. These results suggest that enhanced ocean model resolution can have important benefits for the climatology of both the atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled model, and that some of these benefits may be achievable at lower ocean resolution, if the model formulation allows.

scholarly journals Dipole Structure of Mixed Layer Salinity in Response to El Niño‐La Niña Asymmetry in the Tropical Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (21) ◽  
pp. 12165-12172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Guan ◽  
Shijian Hu ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
Shan Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals Atmospheric Energetics over the Tropical Pacific during the ENSO Cycle

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3635-3654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Dong ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Lidou Huyan ◽  
Jiaqing Xue
Keyword(s):  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The atmospheric perturbation potential energy (PPE) over the tropical Pacific is calculated and analyzed in a composite ENSO cycle. The PPE over the tropical Pacific troposphere increases during El Niño and decreases during La Niña, displaying two centers symmetrical about the equator and delaying the central–eastern Pacific SST anomaly by two months. Generated from atmospheric diabatic heating, the smaller part of PPE in the lower troposphere varies synchronously with the central–eastern Pacific SST through sensible heating, while the larger part of PPE lies in the mid- and upper troposphere and lags the central–eastern Pacific SST about one season because of latent heat release. As the tropical Pacific PPE peaks during the boreal late winter in an El Niño event, two anticyclones form in the upper troposphere as a result of the Gill model response. More PPE is converted to atmospheric kinetic energy (KE) above the central–western Pacific, but less over the eastern Pacific, leading to intensified Hadley circulations over the central–western Pacific and weakened Hadley circulations over the eastern Pacific. The strengthened Hadley circulations cause surface easterly wind bursts through KE convergence in the western equatorial Pacific, which may trigger a La Niña event. The reverse situation occurs during La Niña. Thus, the response of the Hadley circulations in the central–western Pacific provides a negative feedback during the ENSO cycle.

scholarly journals Mechanisms Involved in the Amplification of the 11-yr Solar Cycle Signal in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 5102-5118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stergios Misios ◽  
Hauke Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Tropical Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Indian And Atlantic Oceans ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract It is debated whether the response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to the 11-yr solar cycle forcing resembles a La Niña– or El Niño–like signal. To address this issue, ensemble simulations employing an atmospheric general circulation model with and without ocean coupling are conducted. The coupled simulations show no evidence for a La Niña–like cooling in solar maxima. Instead, the tropical sea surface temperature rises almost in phase with the 11-yr solar cycle. A basinwide warming of about 0.1 K is simulated in the tropical Pacific, whereas the warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans is weaker. In the western Pacific, the region of deep convection shifts to the east, thus reducing the surface easterlies. This shift is independent of the ocean coupling because deep convection moves to the east in the uncoupled simulations too. The reduced surface easterlies cool the subsurface but warm the surface due to the reduction of heat transport divergence. The latter mechanism operates together with water vapor feedback, resulting in a stronger tropical Pacific warming relative to the warming over the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. These results suggest that the atmospheric response to the 11-yr solar cycle drives the tropical Pacific response, which is amplified by atmosphere–ocean feedbacks operating on decadal time scales. Based on the coupled simulations, it is concluded that the tropical Pacific Ocean should warm when the sun is more active.

The dependence of mean climate state on shortwave absorption by water vapor

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-54
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Model Version ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract State-of-the-art climate models exhibit significant spread in the climatological value of atmospheric shortwave absorption (SWA). This study investigates both the possible causes and climatic impacts of this SWA inter-model spread. The inter-model spread of global-mean SWA largely originates from the inter-model difference in water vapor shortwave absorptivity. Hence, we alter the water vapor shortwave absorptivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CESM1-CAM4). Increasing the water vapor shortwave absorptivity leads to a reduction in global-mean precipitation and a La Niña-like cooling over the tropical Pacific. The global-mean atmospheric energy budget suggests that the precipitation is suppressed as a way to compensate for the increased SWA. The precipitation reduction is driven by the weakened surface winds, stabilized planetary boundary layer, and surface cooling. The La Niña-like cooling over the tropical Pacific is attributed to the zonal asymmetry of climatological evaporative damping efficiency and the low cloud enhancement over the eastern basin. Complementary fixed SSTs simulations suggest that the latter is more fundamental and that it primarily arises from atmospheric processes. Consistent with our experiments, the CMIP5/6 models with a higher global-mean SWA tend to exhibit the tropical Pacific toward a more La Niña-like mean state, highlighting the possible role of water vapor shortwave absorptivity for shaping the mean-state climate patterns.

scholarly journals North American Droughts of the Last Millennium from a Gridded Network of Tree-Ring Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1353-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celine Herweijer ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
North American ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Spatial Mode ◽  
Drought Variability ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Drought is the most economically expensive recurring natural disaster to strike North America in modern times. Recently available gridded drought reconstructions have been developed for most of North America from a network of drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies, many of which span the last 1000 yr. These reconstructions enable the authors to put the famous droughts of the instrumental record (i.e., the 1930s Dust Bowl and the 1950s Southwest droughts) into the context of 1000 yr of natural drought variability on the continent. We can now, with this remarkable new record, examine the severity, persistence, spatial signatures, and frequencies of drought variability over the past milllennium, and how these have changed with time. The gridded drought reconstructions reveal the existence of successive “megadroughts,” unprecedented in persistence (20–40 yr), yet similar in year-to-year severity and spatial distribution to the major droughts experienced in today’s North America. These megadroughts occurred during a 400-yr-long period in the early to middle second millennium a.d., with a climate varying as today’s, but around a drier mean. The implication is that the mechanism forcing persistent drought in the West and the Plains in the instrumental era is analagous to that underlying the megadroughts of the medieval period. The leading spatial mode of drought variability in the recontructions resembles the North American ENSO pattern: widespread drought across the United States, centered on the Southwest, with a hint of the opposite phase in the Pacific Northwest. Recently, climate models forced by the observed history of tropical Pacific SSTs have been able to successfully simulate all of the major North American droughts of the last 150 yr. In each case, cool “La Niña–like” conditions in the tropical Pacific are consistent with North American drought. With ENSO showing a pronounced signal in the gridded drought recontructions of the last millennium, both in terms of its link to the leading spatial mode, and the leading time scales of drought variability (revealed by multitaper spectral analysis and wavelet analysis), it is postulated that, as for the modern day, the medieval megadroughts were forced by protracted La Niña–like tropical Pacific SSTs. Further evidence for this comes from the global hydroclimatic “footprint” of the medieval era revealed by existing paleoclimatic archives from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-sensitive tropical and extratropical land regions. In general, this global pattern matches that observed for modern-day persistent North American drought, whereby a La Niña–like tropical Pacific is accompanied by hemispheric, and in the midlatitudes, zonal, symmetry of hydroclimatic anomalies.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Climate Variability under Solar Geoengineering: Impacts on ENSO Extremes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Malik ◽  
Peer J. Nowack ◽  
Joanna D. Haigh ◽  
Long Cao ◽  
Luqman Atique ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Solar Geoengineering ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract. Many modelling studies suggest that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in interaction with the tropical Pacific background climate, will change under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Solar geoengineering (reducing the solar flux from outer space) has been proposed as a means to counteract anthropogenic greenhouse-induced changes in climate. Effectiveness of solar geoengineering is uncertain. Robust results are particularly difficult to obtain for ENSO because existing geoengineering simulations are too short (typically ~ 50 years) to detect statistically significant changes in the highly variable tropical Pacific background climate. We here present results from a 1000-year sunshade geoengineering simulation, G1, carried out with the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM3L. In agreement with previous studies, reducing the shortwave solar flux more than compensates the warming in the tropical Pacific that develops in the 4×CO2 scenario: we observe an overcooling of 0.3 °C (5 %) and 0.23-mm day−1 (5 %) reduction in mean rainfall relative to preindustrial conditions in the G1 simulation. This is due to the different latitudinal distributions of the shortwave (solar) and longwave (CO2) forcings.The location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) located north of equator in the tropical Pacific, which moved 7.5° southwards under 4×CO2, is also restored to its preindustrial location. However, other aspects of the tropical Pacific mean climate are not reset as effectively. Relative to preindustrial conditions, in G1 the zonal wind stress, zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and meridional SST gradient are reduced by 10 %, 11 %, and 9 %, respectively, and the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is consistently weakened. The overall amplitude of ENSO strengthens by 5–8 %, but there is a 65 % reduction in the asymmetry between cold and warm events: cold events intensify more than warm events. Importantly, the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events increases by 44 % and 32 %, respectively, while the total number of El Niño events increases by 12 %. Paradoxically, while the number of total and extreme events increase, the most extreme El Niño events also become weaker relative to preindustrial state while the La Niña events become stronger. That is, extreme El Niño events in G1 become less extreme than in preindustrial conditions, but extreme El Niño events become more frequent. In contrast, extreme La Niña events become stronger in G1. This is in agreement with the general overcooling of the tropical Pacific in G1 relative to preindustrial conditions, which depict a shift towards generally more La Niña-like conditions.

scholarly journals The Large-Scale Ocean Dynamical Effect on Uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (22) ◽  
pp. 8051-8065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ying ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ocean Stratification ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Radiation Feedback ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract This study investigates how intermodel differences in large-scale ocean dynamics affect the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming, as projected by 32 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The largest cause of intermodel TPSW differences is related to the cloud–radiation feedback. After removing the effect of cloud–radiation feedback, the authors find that differences in ocean advection play the next largest role, explaining around 14% of the total intermodel variance in TPSW. Of particular importance are differences in climatological zonal overturning circulation among the models. With the robust enhancement of ocean stratification across models, models with relatively strong climatological upwelling tend to have relatively weak SST warming in the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, the pronounced intermodel differences in ocean overturning changes contribute little to uncertainty in the TPSW pattern. The intermodel differences in climatological zonal overturning are found to be associated with the intermodel spread in climatological SST. In most CMIP5 models, there is a common cold tongue associated with an overly strong overturning in the climatology simulation, implying a La Niña–like bias in the TPSW pattern projected by the MME of the CMIP5 models. This provides further evidence for the projection that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño–like pattern than the MME projection.

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