scholarly journals The Large-Scale Ocean Dynamical Effect on Uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (22) ◽  
pp. 8051-8065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ying ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ocean Stratification ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Radiation Feedback ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract This study investigates how intermodel differences in large-scale ocean dynamics affect the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming, as projected by 32 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The largest cause of intermodel TPSW differences is related to the cloud–radiation feedback. After removing the effect of cloud–radiation feedback, the authors find that differences in ocean advection play the next largest role, explaining around 14% of the total intermodel variance in TPSW. Of particular importance are differences in climatological zonal overturning circulation among the models. With the robust enhancement of ocean stratification across models, models with relatively strong climatological upwelling tend to have relatively weak SST warming in the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, the pronounced intermodel differences in ocean overturning changes contribute little to uncertainty in the TPSW pattern. The intermodel differences in climatological zonal overturning are found to be associated with the intermodel spread in climatological SST. In most CMIP5 models, there is a common cold tongue associated with an overly strong overturning in the climatology simulation, implying a La Niña–like bias in the TPSW pattern projected by the MME of the CMIP5 models. This provides further evidence for the projection that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño–like pattern than the MME projection.

scholarly journals Cloud–Radiation Feedback as a Leading Source of Uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 3867-3881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ying ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Budget ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Radiation Feedback ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The role of the intermodel spread of cloud–radiation feedback in the uncertainty in the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming is investigated based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs from 32 models participating in CMIP5. The large intermodel discrepancies in cloud–radiation feedback contribute 24% of the intermodel uncertainty in the TPSW pattern over the central Pacific. The mechanism by which the cloud–radiation feedback influences the TPSW pattern is revealed based on an analysis of the surface heat budget. A relatively weak negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central Pacific cannot suppress the surface warming as greatly as in the multimodel ensemble and thus induces a warm SST deviation over the central Pacific, producing a low-level convergence that suppresses (enhances) the evaporative cooling and zonal cold advection in the western (eastern) Pacific. With these processes, the original positive SST deviation over the central Pacific will move westward to the western and central Pacific, with a negative SST deviation in the eastern Pacific. Compared with the observed cloud–radiation feedback from six sets of reanalysis and satellite-observed data, the negative cloud–radiation feedback in the models is underestimated in general. It implies that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño–like pattern based on the concept of observational constraint. However, the observed cloud–radiation feedback from the various datasets also demonstrates large discrepancies in magnitude. Therefore, the authors suggest that more effort should be made to improve the precision of shortwave radiation observations and the description of cloud–radiation feedback in models for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern in future.

scholarly journals Excessive ITCZ but Negative SST Biases in the Tropical Pacific Simulated by CMIP5/6 Models: The Role of the Meridional Pattern of SST Bias

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 5305-5316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Sst Bias ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractIn phases 5 and 6 of the state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) models, there is an apparent excessive rainfall bias with a negative SST bias in the tropical Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The regime of the excessive ITCZ but negative SST bias is inconsistent with the common positive rainfall–SST correlation of climate anomalies over the tropics. Using a two-mode model, we decomposed the rainfall bias into two components and found that the surface convergence (SC) bias is the key factor forming the excessive ITCZ bias in the historical runs of 25 CMIP5 models and 23 CMIP6 models. A mixed layer model was further applied to connect the formation of the SC bias with the SST pattern bias. The results suggest that the meridional pattern of the SST bias plays a key role in forming the SC bias. In the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the overall negative SST bias has two apparent meridional troughs at around 10°S and 10°N, respectively. The two meridional troughs in the SST bias drive two convergence centers in the SC bias favoring the excessive ITCZ, even though the local SST bias is negative.

scholarly journals Changes in the Tropical Pacific SST Trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and Its Implication of ENSO

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7764-7771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
June-Yi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Background State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

This study assesses the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) trend and ENSO amplitude by comparing a historical run of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase-5 multimodel ensemble dataset (CMIP5) and the CMIP phase-3 dataset (CMIP3). The results indicate that the magnitude of the SST trend in the tropical Pacific basin has been significantly reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5, which may be associated with the overestimation of the response to natural forcing and aerosols by including Earth system models in CMIP5. Moreover, the patterns of tropical warming over the second half of the twentieth century have changed from a La Niña–like structure in CMIP3 to an El Niño–like structure in CMIP5. Further analysis indicates that such changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific and an increase in the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to the SST changes in the eastern tropical Pacific have influenced the ENSO properties. In particular, the ratio of the SST anomaly variance in the eastern and western tropical Pacific increased from CMIP3 to CMIP5, indicating that a center of action associated with the ENSO amplitude has shifted to the east.

scholarly journals Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks to the El Niño Warming: Are They Still Biased in CMIP5 Models?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 4947-4961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Chen ◽  
Yongqiang Yu ◽  
De-Zheng Sun
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Previous evaluations of model simulations of the cloud and water vapor feedbacks in response to El Niño warming have singled out two common biases in models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3): an underestimate of the negative feedback from the shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) and an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor. Here, the authors check whether these two biases are alleviated in the CMIP5 models. While encouraging improvements are found, particularly in the simulation of the negative SWCRF feedback, the biases in the simulation of these two feedbacks remain prevalent and significant. It is shown that bias in the SWCRF feedback correlates well with biases in the corresponding feedbacks from precipitation, large-scale circulation, and longwave radiative forcing of clouds (LWCRF). By dividing CMIP5 models into two categories—high score models (HSM) and low score models (LSM)—based on their individual skills of simulating the SWCRF feedback, the authors further find that ocean–atmosphere coupling generally lowers the score of the simulated feedbacks of water vapor and clouds but that the LSM is more affected by the coupling than the HSM. They also find that the SWCRF feedback is simulated better in the models that have a more realistic zonal extent of the equatorial cold tongue, suggesting that the continuing existence of an excessive cold tongue is a key factor behind the persistence of the feedback biases in models.

scholarly journals Robust Strengthening and Westward Shift of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation during 1979–2012: A Comparison of 7 Sets of Reanalysis Data and 26 CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 3097-3118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuangmei Ma ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Section ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Independent Observations ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract In this study, the zonal mass streamfunction Ψ, which depicts intuitively the tropical Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) structure characterized by an enclosed and clockwise rotation cell in the zonal–vertical section over the equatorial Pacific, was used to study the changes of PWC spatial structure during 1979–2012. To examine the robustness of changes in PWC characteristics, the linear trends of PWC were evaluated and compared among the current seven sets of reanalysis data, along with a comparison to the trends of surface climate variables. The spatial pattern of Ψ trend exhibited a strengthening and westward-shifting trend of PWC in all reanalysis datasets, with the significantly positive Ψ dominating the western Pacific and negative Ψ controlling the eastern Pacific. This kind of change is physically in agreement with the changes of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface winds, and precipitation derived from both the reanalyses and independent observations. Quantitative analyses of the changes in the PWC intensity and western edge, defined based on the zonal mass streamfunction, also revealed a robust strengthening and westward-shifting trend among all reanalysis datasets, with a trend of 15.08% decade−1 and 3.70° longitude decade−1 in the ensemble mean of seven sets of reanalysis data, with the strongest (weakest) intensification of 17.53% decade−1 (7.96% decade−1) in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (NCEP-2) and largest (smallest) westward shift of −4.68° longitude decade−1 (−2.55° longitude decade−1) in JRA-55 (JRA-25). In response to the recent observed La Niña–like anomalous SST forcing, the ensemble simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with 26 models in the ensemble, reasonably reproduced the observed strengthening and westward-shifting trend of PWC, implying the dominant forcing of the La Niña–like SST anomalies to the recent PWC change.

scholarly journals Role of Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing from the South and North Pacific in Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (13) ◽  
pp. 4013-4038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyi Sun ◽  
Yuko M. Okumura
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
The South ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Stochastic variability of internal atmospheric modes, known as teleconnection patterns, drives large-scale patterns of low-frequency SST variability in the extratropics. To investigate how the decadal component of this stochastically driven variability in the South and North Pacific affects the tropical Pacific and contributes to the observed basinwide pattern of decadal variability, a suite of climate model experiments was conducted. In these experiments, the models are forced with constant surface heat flux anomalies associated with the decadal component of the dominant atmospheric modes, particularly the Pacific–South American (PSA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) patterns. Both the PSA and NPO modes induce basinwide SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and beyond that resemble the observed interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The subtropical SST anomalies forced by the PSA and NPO modes propagate to the equatorial Pacific mainly through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. This atmospheric bridge is stronger from the South Pacific than the North Pacific due to the northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and the associated northward advection of momentum anomalies. The equatorial ocean dynamics is also more strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation changes induced by the PSA mode than the NPO mode. In the PSA experiment, persistent and zonally coherent wind stress curl anomalies over the South Pacific affect the zonal mean depth of the equatorial thermocline and weaken the equatorial SST anomalies resulting from the atmospheric bridge. This oceanic adjustment serves as a delayed negative feedback and may be important for setting the time scales of tropical Pacific decadal variability.

Interannual Biases Induced by Freshwater Flux and Coupled Feedback in the Tropical Pacific

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (5) ◽  
pp. 1715-1737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Guihua Wang ◽  
Dake Chen ◽  
A. J. Busalacchi ◽  
E. C. Hackert
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Feedback Effects ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Interannual Anomaly ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Freshwater flux (FWF) forcing–induced feedback has not been represented adequately in many coupled ocean–atmosphere models of the tropical Pacific. Previously, various approximations have been made in representing the FWF forcing in climate modeling. In this article, using a hybrid coupled model (HCM), sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the extent to which this forcing and related feedback effects can contribute to tropical biases in interannual simulations of the tropical Pacific. The total FWF into the ocean, represented by precipitation (P) minus evaporation (E), (P − E), is separated into its climatological part and interannual anomaly part: FWFTotal = (P − E)clim + FWFinter. The former can be prescribed (seasonally varying); the latter can be captured using an empirical model linking with large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Four cases are considered with different FWFinter specifications: interannual (P − E) forcing [FWFinter = (P − E)inter], interannual P forcing (FWFinter = Pinter), interannual E forcing (FWFinter = −Einter), and climatological (P − E) forcing (FWFinter = 0.0), respectively. The HCM-based experiments indicate that different FWFinter approximations can modulate interannual variability in a substantial way. The HCM with the interannual (P − E) forcing, in which a positive SST − (P − E)inter feedback is included explicitly, has a reasonably realistic simulation of interannual variability. When FWFinter is approximated in some ways, the simulated interannual variability can be modulated significantly: it is weakened with the climatological (P − E) forcing and is even more damped with the interannual E forcing, but is exaggerated with the interannual P forcing. Quantitatively, taking the interannual (P − E) forcing run as a reference, the Niño-3 SST variance can be reduced by about 12% and 26% in the climatological (P − E) forcing run and interannual E forcing run, respectively, but overestimated by 11% in the Pinter forcing run. It is demonstrated that FWF can be a clear bias source for coupled model simulations in the tropical Pacific.

Representation of the Equatorial Undercurrent in CMIP5 Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (10) ◽  
pp. 2997-3007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren B. Kuntz ◽  
Daniel P. Schrag
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Enso Dynamics ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Vital Component ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a vital component of tropical Pacific circulation, helping to modulate the state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here we compare the representation of the EUC in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations of the undercurrent. We find that the CMIP5 models consistently underestimate both the magnitude and variability of the EUC. Insufficient resolution as well as diffusivity parameterizations both contribute to a representation of the EUC that is too weak and too diffuse. Given the strong influence of the EUC on the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, model deficiencies in the EUC contribute to shortcomings in capturing ENSO dynamics and Pacific decadal variability. Further evaluation of the impact of EUC simulation on the climatology and variability in the tropical Pacific is necessary.

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