scholarly journals Simulated Connections between ENSO and Tropical Cyclones near Guam in a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model: Implications for Seasonal Forecasting

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (22) ◽  
pp. 8231-8248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Thomas Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Enso Phases

Abstract This study aims to assess the connections between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones near Guam (GuamTCs) using the state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR). In observations, more (fewer) GuamTCs occur in El Niño (La Niña) years, and the ENSO–GuamTC connections arise from TC genesis locations in ENSO phases. The observed ENSO–GuamTC connections are realistically simulated in the two control experiments that use two versions of FLOR: the standard version and another with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). The ENSO–GuamTC connections in FLOR-FA are closer to observations than those in FLOR because of a better representation of TC genesis during ENSO phases. The physical mechanisms underlying the observed ENSO–GuamTC connections are further supported in the long-term control experiments with FLOR and FLOR-FA. The ENSO–GuamTC connections in sea surface temperature (SST)- and sea surface salinity (SSS)-restoring experiments with FLOR 1990 strongly resemble the observations, suggesting the ENSO–GuamTC connections arise substantially from the forcing of SST. The prediction skill of FLOR-FA for GuamTC frequency is quite promising in terms of correlation and root-mean-square error and is higher than that of FLOR for the period 1980–2014. This study shows the capability of global climate models (FLOR and FLOR-FA) in simulating the linkage between ENSO and TC activity near a highly localized region (i.e., Guam) and in predicting the frequency of TCs at the subbasin scale.

A Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard J. Diamond ◽  
Andrew M. Lorrey ◽  
James A. Renwick
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Enso Phases

Abstract The new South Pacific Enhanced Archive for Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) dataset provides an opportunity to develop a more complete climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the southwest Pacific. Here, spatial patterns and characteristics of TCs for the 41-yr period beginning with the 1969/70 season are related to phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), taking into account the degree of ocean–atmosphere coupling. Twentieth-century reanalysis data and the coupled ENSO index (CEI) were used to investigate TC genesis areas and climate diagnostics in the extratropical transition (ETT) region at and south of 25°S during different CEI ENSO phases. This is the first study looking at CEI-based ENSO phases and the more detailed relationship of TCs to the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere during different ENSO phases. Consistent with previous findings, positive relationships exist among TCs, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation. A statistically significant greater frequency of major TCs was found during the latter half of the study period (1991–2010) compared to the 1970–90 period, again consistent with the findings of other studies. Also found were significant and consistent linkages highlighting the interplay of TCs and sea surface temperature (SSTs) in the southwest Pacific basin west of 170°E and a closer connection to atmospheric circulation east of 170°E. Moreover, this study demonstrates subtle differences between a fully coupled El Niño or La Niña and atmospheric- or ocean-dominated phases, or neutral conditions.

scholarly journals Evidence of intense climate variation and reduced ENSO activity from δ<sup>18</sup>O of <i>Tridacna</i> 3700 years ago

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Hu ◽  
Xiaoming Sun ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
Hong Yan
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Xisha Islands ◽  
The North

Abstract. Tridacna is the largest marine bivalves in the tropical ocean, and its carbonate shell can shed light on high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. In this contribution, δ18Oshell was used to estimate the climatic variation in the Xisha Islands of the South China Sea. We first evaluate the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) influence on modern rehandled monthly (r-monthly) resolution Tridacna gigas δ18Oshell. The obtained results reveal that δ18Oshell seasonal variation is mainly controlled by SST and appear insensitive to local SSS change. Thus, the δ18O of Tridacna shells can be roughly used as a proxy of the local SST: a 1 ‰ δ18Oshell change is roughly equal to 4.41 °C of SST. R-monthly δ18O of a 40-year Tridacna squamosa (3673 ± 28 BP) from the North Reef of Xisha Islands was analyzed and compared with the modern specimen. The difference between the average δ18O of fossil Tridacna shell (δ18O = −1.34 ‰) and modern Tridacna specimen (δ18O = −1.15 ‰) probably implies a warm climate with roughly 0.84°C higher in 3700 years ago. The seasonal variation in 3700 years ago was slightly decreased compared with that suggested by the instrument data, and the switching between warm and cold-seasons was rapid. Higher amplitude in r-monthly and r-annual reconstructed SST anomalies implies an enhanced climate variability in this past warm period. Investigation of the El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation (based on the reconstructed SST series) indicates a reduced ENSO frequency but more extreme El Ninõ events in 3700 years ago.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Dipolelike Variability in the CSIRO Mark 3 Coupled Climate Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1449-1468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Gary Meyers
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface

Abstract Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean is explored with a multicentury integration of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 3 climate model, which runs without flux adjustment. Despite the presence of some common deficiencies in this type of coupled model, zonal dipolelike variability is produced. During July through November, the dominant mode of variability of sea surface temperature resembles the observed zonal dipole and has out-of-phase rainfall variations across the Indian Ocean basin, which are as large as those associated with the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the positive dipole phase, cold SST anomaly and suppressed rainfall south of the equator on the Sumatra–Java coast drives an anticyclonic circulation anomaly that is consistent with the steady response (Gill model) to a heat sink displaced south of the equator. The northwest–southeast tilting Sumatra–Java coast results in cold sea surface temperature (SST) centered south of the equator, which forces anticylonic winds that are southeasterly along the coast, which thus produces local upwelling, cool SSTs, and promotes more anticylonic winds; on the equator, the easterlies raise the thermocline to the east via upwelling Kelvin waves and deepen the off-equatorial thermocline to the west via off-equatorial downwelling Rossby waves. The model dipole mode exhibits little contemporaneous relationship with the model ENSO; however, this does not imply that it is independent of ENSO. The model dipole often (but not always) develops in the year following El Niño. It is triggered by an unrealistic transmission of the model’s ENSO discharge phase through the Indonesian passages. In the model, the ENSO discharge Rossby waves arrive at the Sumatra–Java coast some 6 to 9 months after an El Niño peaks, causing the majority of model dipole events to peak in the year after an ENSO warm event. In the observed ENSO discharge, Rossby waves arrive at the Australian northwest coast. Thus the model Indian Ocean dipolelike variability is triggered by an unrealistic mechanism. The result highlights the importance of properly representing the transmission of Pacific Rossby waves and Indonesian throughflow in the complex topography of the Indonesian region in coupled climate models.

scholarly journals Evidence from giant-clam <i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O of intense El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation-related variability but reduced frequency 3700 years ago

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 597-610
Author(s):  
Yue Hu ◽  
Xiaoming Sun ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
Hong Yan
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Giant Clam ◽  
Xisha Islands

Abstract. Giant clams (Tridacna) are the largest marine bivalves, and their carbonate shells can be used for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions. In this contribution, δ18Oshell was used to estimate climatic variation in the Xisha Islands of the South China Sea. We first evaluate sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) influence on the modern resampled monthly (r-monthly) resolution of Tridacna gigas δ18Oshell. The results obtained reveal that δ18Oshell seasonal variation is mainly controlled by SST and appears to be insensitive to local SSS change. Thus, the δ18O of Tridacna shells can be roughly used as a proxy of local SST: a 1 ‰ δ18Oshell change is roughly equal to 4.41 ∘C of SST. The r-monthly δ18O of a 40-year-old Tridacna squamosa (3673±28 BP) from the North Reef of the Xisha Islands was analyzed and compared with the modern specimen. The difference between the average δ18O of the fossil Tridacna shell (δ18O =-1.34 ‰) and the modern Tridacna specimen (δ18O =-1.15 ‰) probably implies a warm climate, roughly 0.84 ∘C, 3700 years ago. The seasonal variation 3700 years ago was slightly lower than that suggested by modern instrumental data, and the transition between warm and cold seasons was rapid. Higher amplitudes of reconstructed r-monthly and r-annual SST anomalies imply an enhanced climate variability during this warm period. Investigation of the El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation (based on the reconstructed SST series) indicates reduced ENSO frequency but increased ENSO-related variability and extreme El Ninõ winter events 3700 years ago.

scholarly journals Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-132
Author(s):  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Central Pacific

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the most extensive tropospheric circulation cells on our planet, known as Hadley and Walker circulations. Previous studies have largely focused on the effect of ENSO on the strength of these cells. However, what has remained uncertain is whether interannual sea surface temperature anomalies can also cause synchronized spatial shifts of these circulations. Here, by examining the spatiotemporal relationship between Hadley and Walker cells in observations and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that the seasonally evolving warm-pool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the decay phase of an El Niño event generate a meridionally asymmetric Walker circulation response, which couples the zonal and meridional atmospheric overturning circulations. This process, which can be characterized as a phase-synchronized spatial shift in Walker and Hadley cells, is accompanied by cross-equatorial northwesterly low-level flow that diverges from an area of anomalous drying in the western North Pacific and converges towards a region with anomalous moistening in the southern central Pacific. Our results show that the SST-induced concurrent spatial shifts of the two circulations are climatically relevant as they can further amplify extratropical precipitation variability on interannual timescales.

scholarly journals Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Coupled El Niño/Southern Oscillation Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (7) ◽  
pp. 4546-4556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C. Hackert ◽  
Robin M. Kovach ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi ◽  
Joaquim Ballabrera‐Poy
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Salinity
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