scholarly journals Local and External Moisture Sources for the Arctic Warming over the Barents–Kara Seas

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1963-1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linhao Zhong ◽  
Lijuan Hua ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
Local Moisture

Water vapor is critical to Arctic sea ice loss and surface air warming, particularly in winter. Whether the local process or poleward transport from lower latitudes can explain the Arctic warming is still a controversial issue. In this work, a hydrological tool, a dynamical recycling model (DRM) based on time-backward Lagrangian moisture tracking, is applied to quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of local evaporation and external sources to Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) moisture in winter during 1979–2015. On average, the local and external moistures explain 35.4% and 57.3% of BKS moisture, respectively. The BKS, Norwegian Sea, and midlatitude North Atlantic are the three major sources and show significant increasing trends of moisture contribution. The local moisture contribution correlates weakly to downward infrared radiation (IR) but significantly to sea ice variation, which suggests that the recent-decade increase of local moisture contribution is only a manifestation of sea ice melting. In contrast, the external moisture contribution significantly correlates to both downward IR and sea ice variation, thus suggesting that meridional moisture transport mainly explains the recent BKS warming. The moisture contributions due to different sources are governed by distinct circulation patterns. The negative Arctic Oscillation–like pattern suppresses external moisture but favors local evaporation. In the case of dominant external moisture, a well-organized wave train spanning from across the midlatitude Atlantic to mid–high-latitude Eurasia has the mid–high-latitude components similar to a positive-phase North Atlantic Oscillation with a Ural blocking to the east. Moreover, the meridional shift of the wave train pathway and the spatial scale of the wave train anomalies determine the transport passage and strength of the major external moisture sources.

scholarly journals Ural Blocking as an Amplifier of the Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Winter

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2639-2654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

In this paper, the lead–lag relationship between the Arctic sea ice variability over the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) and Ural blocking (UB) in winter (DJF) ranging from 1979/80 to 2011/12 is examined. It is found that in a regressed DJF-mean field an increased UB frequency (days) corresponds to an enhanced sea ice decline over the BKS, while the high sea surface temperature over the BKS is accompanied by a significant Arctic sea ice reduction. Lagged daily regression and correlation reveal that the growth and maintenance of the UB that is related to the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) through the negative east Atlantic/west Russia (EA/WR−) wave train is accompanied by an intensified negative BKS sea ice anomaly, and the BKS sea ice reduction lags the UB pattern by about four days. Because the intensified UB pattern occurs together with enhanced downward infrared radiation (IR) associated with the intensified moisture flux convergence and total column water over the BKS, the UB pattern contributes significantly to the BKS sea ice decrease on a time scale of weeks through intensified positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies resulting from enhanced downward IR. It is also found that the BKS sea ice decline can persistently maintain even when the UB has disappeared, thus indicating that the UB pattern is an important amplifier of the BKS sea ice reduction. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the EA/WR− wave train formed by the combined NAO+ and UB patterns is closely related to the amplified warming over the BKS through the strengthening (weakening) of mid-to-high-latitude westerly wind in the North Atlantic (Eurasia).

scholarly journals Contributors to linkage between Arctic warming and East Asian winter climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinping Xu ◽  
Shengping He ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Botao Zhou ◽  
Huijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Arctic Warming

AbstractPrevious modelling and observational studies have shown discrepancies in the interannual relationship of winter surface air temperature (SAT) between Arctic and East Asia, stimulating the debate about whether Arctic change can influence midlatitude climate. This study uses two sets of coordinated experiments (EXP1 and EXP2) from six different atmospheric general circulation models. Both EXP1 and EXP2 consist of 130 ensemble members, each of which in EXP1 (EXP2) was forced by the same observed daily varying sea ice and daily varying (daily climatological) sea surface temperature (SST) for 1982–2014 but with different atmospheric initial conditions. Large spread exists among ensemble members in simulating the Arctic–East Asian SAT relationship. Only a fraction of ensemble members can reproduce the observed deep Arctic warming–cold continent pattern which extends from surface to upper troposphere, implying the important role of atmospheric internal variability. The mechanisms of deep Arctic warming and shallow Arctic warming are further distinguished. Arctic warming aloft is caused primarily by poleward moisture transport, which in conjunction with the surface warming coupled with sea ice melting constitutes the surface-amplified deep Arctic warming throughout the troposphere. These processes associated with the deep Arctic warming may be related to the forcing of remote SST when there is favorable atmospheric circulation such as Rossby wave train propagating from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

Separating the influences of low-latitude warming and sea-ice loss on Northern Hemisphere climate change

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Russell Blackport ◽  
Kelly E. McCusker ◽  
Thomas Oudar ◽  
Lantao Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Analyzing a multi-model ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea-ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea-ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. In spite of some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger inter-model spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more inter-model spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea-ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea-ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene Northern Hemisphere warming driven by Arctic amplification

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. eaax8203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
Seong-Joong Kim ◽  
Andrew L. Stewart ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Holocene Thermal Maximum ◽  
Thermal Maximum

The Holocene thermal maximum was characterized by strong summer solar heating that substantially increased the summertime temperature relative to preindustrial climate. However, the summer warming was compensated by weaker winter insolation, and the annual mean temperature of the Holocene thermal maximum remains ambiguous. Using multimodel mid-Holocene simulations, we show that the annual mean Northern Hemisphere temperature is strongly correlated with the degree of Arctic amplification and sea ice loss. Additional model experiments show that the summer Arctic sea ice loss persists into winter and increases the mid- and high-latitude temperatures. These results are evaluated against four proxy datasets to verify that the annual mean northern high-latitude temperature during the mid-Holocene was warmer than the preindustrial climate, because of the seasonally rectified temperature increase driven by the Arctic amplification. This study offers a resolution to the “Holocene temperature conundrum”, a well-known discrepancy between paleo-proxies and climate model simulations of Holocene thermal maximum.

The winter midlatitude-Arctic interaction: effects of North Atlantic SST and high-latitude blocking on Arctic sea ice and Eurasian cooling

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 2981-3004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binhe Luo ◽  
Lixin Wu ◽  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Ian Simmonds
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Marta Vázquez ◽  
Luis Gimeno
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. By considering the moisture transport for precipitation (MTP) for a target region to be the moisture that arrives in this region from its major moisture sources and which then results in precipitation in that region, we explore (i) whether the MTP from the main moisture sources for the Arctic region is linked with inter-annual fluctuations in the extent of Arctic sea ice superimposed on its decline and (ii) the role of extreme MTP events in the inter-daily change in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) when extreme MTP simultaneously arrives from the four main moisture regions that supply it. The results suggest (1) that ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring and, (2) on a daily basis, extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons extreme humidity transport therefore contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to the decline on a long-range scale, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies, as ice melt is favoured by a decrease in moisture transport for this season at this scale.

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals A simple approach to providing a more consistent Arctic sea ice extent time series from the 1950s to present

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1359-1368 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. N. Meier ◽  
J. Stroeve ◽  
A. Barrett ◽  
F. Fetterer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Combined Time Series

Abstract. Observations from passive microwave satellite sensors have provided a continuous and consistent record of sea ice extent since late 1978. Earlier records, compiled from ice charts and other sources exist, but are not consistent with the satellite record. Here, a method is presented to adjust a compilation of pre-satellite sources to remove discontinuities between the two periods and create a more consistent combined 59-yr time series spanning 1953–2011. This adjusted combined time series shows more realistic behavior across the transition between the two individual time series and thus provides higher confidence in trend estimates from 1953 through 2011. The long-term time series is used to calculate linear trend estimates and compare them with trend estimates from the satellite period. The results indicate that trends through the 1960s were largely positive (though not statistically significant) and then turned negative by the mid-1970s and have been consistently negative since, reaching statistical significance (at the 95% confidence level) by the late 1980s. The trend for September (when Arctic extent reaches its seasonal minimum) for the satellite period, 1979–2011 is −12.9% decade−1, nearly double the 1953–2011 trend of −6.8% decade−1 (percent relative to the 1981–2010 mean). The recent decade (2002–2011) stands out as a period of persistent decline in ice extent. The combined 59-yr time series puts the strong observed decline in the Arctic sea ice cover during 1979–2011 in a longer-term context and provides a useful resource for comparisons with historical model estimates.

scholarly journals Internal Variability in Projections of Twenty-First-Century Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Role of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Wettstein ◽  
Clara Deser
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000–61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse gas emissions scenario and differs only in the atmospheric model component's initial condition. September Arctic sea ice extent trends during 2020–59 range from −2.0 × 106 to −5.7 × 106 km2 across the 39 ensemble members, indicating a substantial role for internal variability in future Arctic sea ice loss projections. A similar nearly threefold range (from −7.0 × 103 to −19 × 103 km3) is found for summer sea ice volume trends. Higher rates of summer Arctic sea ice loss in CCSM3 are associated with enhanced transpolar drift and Fram Strait ice export driven by surface wind and sea level pressure patterns. Over the Arctic, the covarying atmospheric circulation patterns resemble the so-called Arctic dipole, with maximum amplitude between April and July. Outside the Arctic, an atmospheric Rossby wave train over the Pacific sector is associated with internal ice loss variability. Interannual covariability patterns between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are similar to those based on trends, suggesting that similar processes govern internal variability over a broad range of time scales. Interannual patterns of CCSM3 ice–atmosphere covariability compare well with those in nature and in the newer CCSM4 version of the model, lending confidence to the results. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns in CCSM3 suggest that the tropical Pacific modulates Arctic sea ice variability via the aforementioned Rossby wave train. Large ensembles with other coupled models are needed to corroborate these CCSM3-based findings.

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