scholarly journals High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-334
Author(s):  
J. G. McLay ◽  
E. A. Hendricks ◽  
J. Moskaitis
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACT A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.5144 m s−1) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at >64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt.

Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 1306-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang ◽  
Jianfang Fei ◽  
Xiaogang Huang ◽  
Xiaoping Cheng ◽  
Xiangrong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean

scholarly journals Improving prediction of trans-boundary biomass burning plume dispersion: from northern peninsular Southeast Asia to downwind western North Pacific Ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (16) ◽  
pp. 12521-12541
Author(s):  
Maggie Chel-Gee Ooi ◽  
Ming-Tung Chuang ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Steven S. Kong ◽  
Wei-Syun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Plume Rise ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean

Abstract. Plumes from the boreal spring biomass burning (BB) in northern peninsular Southeast Asia (nPSEA) are lifted into the subtropical jet stream and transported and deposited across nPSEA, South China, Taiwan and even the western North Pacific Ocean. This paper as part of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7-SEAS) project effort attempts to improve the chemical weather prediction capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the Community Multiscale for Air Quality (WRF–CMAQ) model over a vast region, from the mountainous near-source burning sites at nPSEA to its downwind region. Several sensitivity analyses of plume rise are compared in the paper, and it is discovered that the initial vertical allocation profile of BB plumes and the plume rise module (PLMRIM) are the main reasons causing the inaccuracies of the WRF–CMAQ simulations. The smoldering emission from the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) empirical algorithm included has improved the accuracies of PM10, O3 and CO at the source. The best performance at the downwind sites is achieved with the inline PLMRIM, which accounts for the atmospheric stratification at the mountainous source region with the FINN burning emission dataset. Such a setup greatly improves not only the BB aerosol concentration prediction over near-source and receptor ground-based measurement sites but also the aerosol vertical distribution and column aerosol optical depth of the BB aerosol along the transport route. The BB aerosols from nPSEA are carried by the subtropical westerlies in the free troposphere to the western North Pacific, while BB aerosol has been found to interact with the local pollutants in the Taiwan region through three conditions: (a) overpassing western Taiwan and entering the central mountain area, (b) mixing down to western Taiwan, (c) transport of local pollutants upwards and mixing with a BB plume on higher ground. The second condition, which involves the prevailing high-pressure system from Asian cold surge, is able to impact most of the population in Taiwan.

scholarly journals Atmospheric inorganic nitrogen input via dry, wet, and sea fog deposition to the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 411-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jung ◽  
H. Furutani ◽  
M. Uematsu ◽  
S. Kim ◽  
S. Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Inorganic N ◽  
Fog Water ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Sea Fog ◽  
Fog Deposition

Abstract. Aerosol, rainwater, and sea fog water samples were collected during the cruise conducted over the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean in the summer of 2008, in order to estimate dry, wet, and sea fog deposition fluxes of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen (N). During sea fog events, mean number densities of particles with diameters larger than 0.5 μm decreased by 12–78%, suggesting that particles with diameters larger than 0.5 μm could act preferentially as condensation nuclei (CN) for sea fog droplets. Mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3−), methanesulfonic acid (MSA), and non sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42−) in sea fog water were higher than those in rainwater, whereas those of ammonium (NH4+) in both sea fog water and rainwater were similar. These results reveal that sea fog scavenged NO3− and biogenic sulfur species more efficiently than rain. Mean dry, wet, and sea fog deposition fluxes for atmospheric total inorganic N (TIN; i.e. NH4+ + NO3−) over the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean were estimated to be 4.9 μmol m−2 d−1, 33 μmol m−2 d−1, and 7.8 μmol m−2 d−1, respectively. While NO3− was the dominant inorganic N species in dry and sea fog deposition, inorganic N supplied to surface waters by wet deposition was predominantly by NH4+. The contribution of dry, wet, and sea fog deposition to total deposition flux for TIN (46 μmol m−2 d−1) were 11%, 72%, and 17%, respectively, suggesting that ignoring sea fog deposition would lead to underestimate of the total influx of atmospheric inorganic N into the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean, especially in summer periods.

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