scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (15) ◽  
pp. 4731-4752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel J. Schweiger ◽  
Kevin R. Wood ◽  
Jinlun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Modeling ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract PIOMAS-20C, an Arctic sea ice reconstruction for 1901–2010, is produced by forcing the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) with ERA-20C atmospheric data. ERA-20C performance over Arctic sea ice is assessed by comparisons with measurements and data from other reanalyses. ERA-20C performs similarly with respect to the annual cycle of downwelling radiation, air temperature, and wind speed compared to reanalyses with more extensive data assimilation such as ERA-Interim and MERRA. PIOMAS-20C sea ice thickness and volume are then compared with in situ and aircraft remote sensing observations for the period of ~1950–2010. Error statistics are similar to those for PIOMAS. We compare the magnitude and patterns of sea ice variability between the first half of the twentieth century (1901–40) and the more recent period (1980–2010), both marked by sea ice decline in the Arctic. The first period contains the so-called early-twentieth-century warming (ETCW; ~1920–40) during which the Atlantic sector saw a significant decline in sea ice volume, but the Pacific sector did not. The sea ice decline over the 1979–2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901–40 period. Sea ice volume trends reconstructed solely from surface temperature anomalies are smaller than PIOMAS-20C, suggesting that mechanisms other than warming, such as changes in ice motion and deformation, played a significant role in determining sea ice volume trends during both periods.

scholarly journals Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 10929-10999 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Döscher ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
E. Maksimovich
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice is the central and essential component of the Arctic climate system. The depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970's, have accelerated after the millennium shift. While a relationship to global warming is evident and is underpinned statistically, the mechanisms connected to the sea ice reduction are to be explored in detail. Sea ice erodes both from the top and from the bottom. Atmosphere, sea ice and ocean processes interact in non-linear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system. The amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and is at the same time accelerating the ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms connected to the sea ice decline has grown during the 1990's and has deepened when the acceleration became clear in the early 2000's. Record summer sea ice extents in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2012 provided additional information on the mechanisms. This article reviews recent progress in understanding of the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from an atmospheric, ocean and sea ice perspective. There is strong evidence for decisive atmospheric changes being the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo and thickness allow for additional local atmosphere and ocean influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large scale ocean influences on the Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Only little indication exists for a direct decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (24) ◽  
pp. 6573-6581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salil Mahajan ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Control Simulation ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The simulated impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the low-frequency variability of the Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent is studied with a 1000-year-long segment of a control simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1. The simulated AMOC variations in the control simulation are found to be significantly anticorrelated with the Arctic sea ice extent anomalies and significantly correlated with the Arctic SAT anomalies on decadal time scales in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The maximum anticorrelation with the Arctic sea ice extent and the maximum correlation with the Arctic SAT occur when the AMOC index leads by one year. An intensification of the AMOC is associated with a sea ice decline in the Labrador, Greenland, and Barents Seas in the control simulation, with the largest change occurring in winter. The recent declining trend in the satellite-observed sea ice extent also shows a similar pattern in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in the winter, suggesting the possibility of a role of the AMOC in the recent Arctic sea ice decline in addition to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-induced warming. However, in the summer, the simulated sea ice response to the AMOC in the Pacific sector of the Arctic is much weaker than the observed declining trend, indicating a stronger role for other climate forcings or variability in the recently observed summer sea ice decline in the Chukchi, Beaufort, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4027-4033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Ir Radiation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

scholarly journals Late-Twentieth-Century Simulation of Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Properties in the CCSM4

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1431-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Kara Sterling ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
James A. Maslanik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Motion Field ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ensemble Mean

To establish how well the new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) simulates the properties of the Arctic sea ice and ocean, results from six CCSM4 twentieth-century ensemble simulations are compared here with the available data. It is found that the CCSM4 simulations capture most of the important climatological features of the Arctic sea ice and ocean state well, among them the sea ice thickness distribution, fraction of multiyear sea ice, and sea ice edge. The strongest bias exists in the simulated spring-to-fall sea ice motion field, the location of the Beaufort Gyre, and the temperature of the deep Arctic Ocean (below 250 m), which are caused by deficiencies in the simulation of the Arctic sea level pressure field and the lack of deep-water formation on the Arctic shelves. The observed decrease in the sea ice extent and the multiyear ice cover is well captured by the CCSM4. It is important to note, however, that the temporal evolution of the simulated Arctic sea ice cover over the satellite era is strongly influenced by internal variability. For example, while one ensemble member shows an even larger decrease in the sea ice extent over 1981–2005 than that observed, two ensemble members show no statistically significant trend over the same period. It is therefore important to compare the observed sea ice extent trend not just with the ensemble mean or a multimodel ensemble mean, but also with individual ensemble members, because of the strong imprint of internal variability on these relatively short trends.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Arctic sea ice thickness and volume derived from ice age

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1325-1345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghui Liu ◽  
Jeffrey R. Key ◽  
Xuanji Wang ◽  
Mark Tschudi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Sea ice is a key component of the Arctic climate system, and has impacts on global climate. Ice concentration, thickness, and volume are among the most important Arctic sea ice parameters. This study presents a new record of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from 1984 to 2018 based on an existing satellite-derived ice age product. The relationship between ice age and ice thickness is first established for every month based on collocated ice age and ice thickness from submarine sonar data (1984–2000) and ICESat (2003–2008) and an empirical ice growth model. Based on this relationship, ice thickness is derived for the entire time period from the weekly ice age product, and the Arctic monthly sea ice volume is then calculated. The ice-age-based thickness and volume show good agreement in terms of bias and root-mean-square error with submarine, ICESat, and CryoSat-2 ice thickness, as well as ICESat and CryoSat-2 ice volume, in February–March and October–November. More detailed comparisons with independent data from Envisat for 2003 to 2010 and CryoSat-2 from CPOM, AWI, and NASA GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) for 2011 to 2018 show low bias in ice-age-based thickness. The ratios of the ice volume uncertainties to the mean range from 21 % to 29 %. Analysis of the derived data shows that the ice-age-based sea ice volume exhibits a decreasing trend of −411 km3 yr−1 from 1984 to 2018, stronger than the trends from other datasets. Of the factors affecting the sea ice volume trends, changes in sea ice thickness contribute more than changes in sea ice area, with a contribution of at least 80 % from changes in sea ice thickness from November to May and nearly 50 % in August and September, while less than 30 % is from changes in sea ice area in all months.

scholarly journals Intensification of the Atlantic Water Supply to the Arctic Ocean Through Fram Strait Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Xuezhu Wang ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

scholarly journals Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (15) ◽  
pp. 4570-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, which has played a leading role in the observed recent Arctic surface warming and has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the most rapid decline occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. Previous studies are often focused on a single mechanism for changes and variations of summer Arctic sea ice extent, and many are based on short observational records. The key players for summer Arctic sea ice extent variability at multidecadal/centennial time scales and their contributions to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to provide a framework to quantify the contributions of three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific heat transport into the Arctic, and Arctic Dipole) to the internal low-frequency variability of Summer Arctic sea ice extent, using a 3,600-y-long control climate model simulation. The results suggest that changes in these key predictors could have contributed substantially to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice. The modeling results also suggest that at multidecadal/centennial time scales, variations in the atmosphere heat transport across the Arctic Circle are forced by anticorrelated variations in the Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic.

scholarly journals Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 13571-13600 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Döscher ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
E. Maksimovich
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Central Component ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline

Abstract. Sea ice is the central component and most sensitive indicator of the Arctic climate system. Both the depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970s, have accelerated since the millennium. While the relationship of global warming to sea ice reduction is evident and underpinned statistically, it is the connecting mechanisms that are explored in detail in this review. Sea ice erodes both from the top and the bottom. Atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes interact in non-linear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system: the amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and, at the same time, accelerates ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms of sea ice decline grew during the 1990s and deepened when the acceleration became clear in the early 2000s. Record minimum summer sea ice extents in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2012 provide additional information on the mechanisms. This article reviews recent progress in understanding the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice perspectives. There is strong evidence that decisive atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness allow for additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large-scale ocean influences on Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. There is little indication of a direct and decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

Insight: What's driving the Arctic sea ice decline?

2008 ◽  
Vol 199 (2674) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Catherine Brahic
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Benefits of sea ice thickness initialization for the Arctic decadal climate prediction skill in EC-Earth3

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Tian ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Mehdi Pasha Karami ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Tim Kruschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Central Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual time scales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all the variables characterizing sea ice, sea ice volume, being a product of sea ice area/concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most sensitive parameter for climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the benefits of specific initialized variables at regional scales, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean-only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. The increased skill from ocean plus SIC initialization is small in most regions, compared to ocean-only initialization. In the marginal ice zone covered by seasonal ice, skills regarding winter SIC are mainly gained from the initial ocean temperature anomalies. Consistent with previous studies, the Arctic sea ice volume anomalies are found to play a dominant role for the prediction skill of September Arctic sea ice extent. Winter preconditioning of SIT for the perennial ice in the central Arctic Ocean results in increased skill of SIC in the adjacent Arctic coastal waters (e.g. the Laptev/East Siberian/Chukchi Seas) for lead time up to a decade. This highlights the importance of initializing SIT for predictions of decadal time scale in regional Arctic sea ice. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from being the sea ice volume playing the major role to a more ocean-related processes.

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