scholarly journals Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4027-4033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein

Abstract Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Xuezhu Wang ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alek A. Petty ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve ◽  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Linette N. Boisvert ◽  
Angela C. Bliss ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 4956-4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Xuezhu Wang ◽  
S. Danilov ◽  
Nikolay V. Koldunov ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 61-64
Author(s):  
Naja Mikkelsen ◽  
Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen ◽  
Yngve Kristoffersen ◽  
Susanne Juul Lassen ◽  
Emma Sheldon

The Arctic Ocean is a landlocked basin, at present covered by perennial sea ice. During the past few decades a significant thinning and shrinking of the sea ice has been observed, and modelling studies indicate that the Arctic Ocean ice cover could, by the end of this century, almost disappear from most parts of the Arctic Ocean during peak summer seasons. It remains uncertain, however, whether the environmental changes are an enhanced greenhouse-warming signal or a result of natural (long-term) variability, but palaeoceanographic studies can contribute to our understanding of the natural variability of environmental parameters, e.g. sea-ice cover and oceanographic changes on time-scales of centuries to millennia. As part of the multidisciplinary EU project Greenland Arctic Shelf Ice and Climate Experiment (GreenICE), sediment coring and seismic reflection measurements have been undertaken in a hitherto unexplored part of the Arctic Ocean, the margin of the Lomonosov Ridge in the Lincoln Sea (Fig. 1). The aim of the project was to study the structure and dynamics of the sea-ice cover and attempt to relate these to longer-term records of climate variability retrieved from sediment cores. The main field work was carried out in May 2004 from an ice camp established by a Twin Otter aircraft on drifting sea ice at 85°N, 65°W, c. 170 km north of Alert, Arctic Canada. The camp was deployed over the shallowest part of the Lomonosov Ridge off the northern Greenland/Canada continental margin (Fig. 1). The sea-ice drift would normally be between east and south, but persistent easterly winds resulted in a fast drift trajectory towards the WSW, such that the camp drifted a distance of approximately 62 km during the two weeks camp period. At present the study area is heavily ice covered, and forecast models of future shrinking Arctic sea-ice cover suggest that this area is one of the least sensitive to warming in the Arctic. The results obtained from the GreenICE project challenge this view.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Sumata ◽  
Laura de Steur ◽  
Sebastian Gerland ◽  
Dmitry Divine ◽  
Olga Pavlova

Abstract Fram Strait is the major gateway connecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, where nearly 90% of the sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place. The exported sea ice is a large source of freshwater to the Nordic Seas and Subpolar North Atlantic, thereby preconditioning European climate and deep water formation in the downstream North Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that in 2018, the ice export through Fram Strait showed an unprecedented decline since the early 1990s. The 2018 ice export was reduced to less than 40% relative to that between 2000 and 2017, and amounted to just 25% of the 1990s. The minimum export was attributed to regional sea ice-ocean processes driven by an anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The anomalous circulation caused a stagnation of southward sea ice drift, causing a sudden drop of sea ice thickness north of the Fram Strait due to local heat supply from the ocean. The result indicates that a drastic change of the freshwater cycle and its environmental consequences happen not only through ongoing Arctic-wide ice thinning, but also by regional scale atmospheric anomalies in the Atlantic sector on annual timescales.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Lindsay ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
A. Schweiger ◽  
M. Steele ◽  
H. Stern

Abstract The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  

Abstract The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.


1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.


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