The Impacts of Horizontal Resolution on the Seasonally Dependent Biases of the Northeastern Pacific ITCZ in Coupled Climate Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 941-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengfei Song ◽  
Guang J. Zhang

ABSTRACTThe double-ITCZ bias has puzzled the climate modeling community for more than two decades. Here we show that, over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases are seasonally dependent in the NCAR CESM1 and 37 CMIP5 models, with positive biases during boreal summer–autumn and negative biases during boreal winter–spring, although the easterly wind bias persists year round. This seasonally dependent bias is found to be caused by the model’s failure to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of the North American monsoon. During winter–spring, the observed easterly wind dominates, so the simulated stronger wind speed enhances surface evaporation and lowers SST. It is opposite when the observed wind turns to westerly during summer–autumn. An easterly wind bias, mainly evident in the lower troposphere, also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observed SST is prescribed, suggesting that it is of atmospheric origin. When the atmospheric model resolution is doubled in the CESM1, both SST and precipitation are improved in association with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when the double-ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29.0% and 18.8%, respectively, by increasing the horizontal resolution in the CESM1. When dividing the 37 CMIP5 models into two groups on the basis of their horizontal resolutions, it is found that both the seasonally dependent biases over the northeastern Pacific and year-round biases over the southeastern Pacific are reduced substantially in the higher-resolution models, with improvement of ~30% in both regions during boreal spring. Close relationships between wind and precipitation biases over the northeastern and southeastern Pacific are also found among CMIP5 models.

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (24) ◽  
pp. 10407-10418
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Song ◽  
Guang Jun Zhang

AbstractWarm SST bias underlying the spurious southern ITCZ has long been recognized as one of the main causes for double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs in the central Pacific. This study demonstrates that the NCAR CESM1.2 can still simulate significant double-ITCZ bias even with cold SST bias in the southern ITCZ region, indicating that warm SST bias is not a necessary condition for double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. Further analyses suggest that the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) biases play important roles in the formation of double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. The severe cold SST biases in the ECT region in the central Pacific may enhance the SST gradient between the ECT and southern ITCZ region, strengthening the lower-troposphere dynamical convergence and hence convection in the southern ITCZ region. The formation mechanism of excessive ECT bias is further investigated. It is shown that the cold SST biases in the ECT region can be largely attributed to the anomalous cooling tendency produced by the upper-ocean zonal advection due to overly strong zonal currents. In the ECT region, the westward ocean surface zonal current is driven by the equatorial easterly surface winds. It is shown that convection bias simulated by the atmospheric model in the equatorial Amazon region may lead to easterly wind bias in the downwind side (west) of convection region. The mean Walker circulation transports these easterly wind momentum anomalies downward and westward to the surface, resulting in the overly strong surface easterly wind in the central equatorial Pacific.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan K. P. Shonk ◽  
Teferi D. Demissie ◽  
Thomas Toniazzo

Abstract. Modern coupled general circulation models produce systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic that hamper the reliability of long-range predictions. This study focuses on a common springtime westerly wind bias in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal hindcasts from two coupled models – ECMWF System 4 and EC-Earth v2.3 – and in hindcasts also based on System 4, but with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. The coupled models share common atmosphere and ocean components, although at different versions. We examine the sequence in which different biases appear during the development of the westerly bias in early April, which is marked by a rapid transition from a wintertime bias pattern with an equatorial cold tongue and an easterly wind bias to a springtime westerly bias regime displaying a marked double ITCZ. The transition is a seasonal feature of the model climatology (independent of start date), and is associated with the seasonal increase in rainfall around the start of April and the consequent enhancement of the southern branch of a double ITCZ, which generates excess off-equatorial convergence and redirects the trade winds away from the equator. There is no evidence of remote influences on the biases at the time of the transition. By contrast, there appears to be an association with a persistent dry bias north of the equator. Based on our analysis, a possible contribution to the springtime development of the double ITCZ and the westerly equatorial wind bias is a failure to correctly represent the meridional cross-equatorial flow, which can instigate a meridional rainfall bias pattern across the equator.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1765-1780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gen Li ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie

Abstract Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP–AMIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean–atmospheric energy transport balance.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu

AbstractAn unprecedented extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event (pIOD) occurred in 2019, which has caused widespread disastrous impacts on countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including the East African floods and vast bushfires in Australia. Here we investigate the causes for the 2019 pIOD by analyzing multiple observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments. We find that the 2019 pIOD is triggered in May by easterly wind bursts over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the dry phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, and sustained by the local atmosphere-ocean interaction thereafter. During September-November, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central-western tropical Pacific further enhance the Indian Ocean’s easterly winds, bringing the pIOD to an extreme magnitude. The central-western tropical Pacific warm SSTA is strengthened by two consecutive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events that originate from the tropical Indian Ocean. Our results highlight the important roles of cross-basin and cross-timescale interactions in generating extreme IOD events. The lack of accurate representation of these interactions may be the root for a short lead time in predicting this extreme pIOD with a state-of-the-art climate forecast model.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej Muzyka ◽  
Jaromir Jakacki ◽  
Anna Przyborska

<p>The Regional Ocean Modelling System has been begun to implement for region of Baltic Sea.  A preliminary curvilinear grid with horizontal resolution ca. 2.3 km has been prepared based on the grid, which was used in previous application in our research group (in Parallel Ocean Program and in standalone version of Los Alamos Sea Ice Model - CICE).  Currently the grid has 30 sigma layers, but the final number of levels will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>So far we’ve successfully compiled the model on our machine, run test cases and created Baltic Sea case, which is working with mentioned Baltic grid. The following parameters: air pressure, humidity, surface temperature, long and shortwave radiation, precipitation and wind components are used as an atmospheric forcing. The data arrive from our operational atmospheric model - Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF).</p><p>Our main goal is to create efficient system for hindcast and forecast simulations of Baltic Sea together with sea ice component by coupling ROMS with CICE. The reason for choosing these two models is an active community that takes care about model’s developments and updates. Authors also intend to work more closely with the CICE model to improve its agreement with satellite measurements in the Baltic region.<br><br>Calculations were carried out at the Academic Computer Centre in Gdańsk.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Hiroki Tokinaga ◽  
Shoichiro Kido

<p>The potential influence of the tropical Atlantic on the development of ENSO has received increased attention over recent years. In particular equatorial Atlantic variability (also known as the Atlantic zonal mode or AZM) has been shown to be anticorrelated with ENSO, i.e. cold AZM events in boreal summer (JJA) tend to be followed by El Niño in winter (DJF), and vice versa for warm AZM events. One problem with disentangling the two-way interaction between the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific is that both ENSO and the AZM tend to develop in boreal spring (MAM).</p><p>Here we use a set of GCM sensitivity experiments to quantify the strength of the Atlantic-Pacific link. The starting point is a 1000-year free-running control simulation with the GFDL CM 2.1 model. From this control simulation, we pick years in which a cold AZM event in JJA is followed by an El Niño in DJF. These years serve as initial conditions for “perfect model” prediction experiments with 10 ensemble members each. In the control experiments, the predictions evolve freely for 12 months from January 1 of each selected year. In the second set of predictions, SSTs are gradually relaxed to climatology in the tropical Atlantic, so that the cold AZM event is suppressed. In the third set of predictions, we restore the tropical Pacific SSTs to climatology, so that the El Niño event is suppressed.</p><p>The results suggest that, on average, the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies increase the strength of El Niño in the following winter by about 10-20%. If, on the other hand, El Niño development is suppressed, the amplitude of the cold AZM event also reduces by a similar amount. The results suggest that, in the context of this GCM, the influence of AZM events on ENSO development is relatively weak but not negligible. The fact that ENSO also influences the AZM in boreal spring highlights the complex two-way interaction between these two modes of variability.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (23) ◽  
pp. 9719-9738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline M. Dunning ◽  
Emily Black ◽  
Richard P. Allan

Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projection scenarios across an ensemble of CMIP5 models using an objective methodology to determine the onset and cessation of the wet season. A delay in the wet season over West Africa and the Sahel of over 5–10 days on average, and later onset of the wet season over southern Africa, is identified and associated with increasing strength of the Saharan heat low in late boreal summer and a northward shift in the position of the tropical rain belt over August–December. Over the Horn of Africa rainfall during the “short rains” season is projected to increase by over 100 mm on average by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Average rainfall per rainy day is projected to increase, while the number of rainy days in the wet season declines in regions of stable or declining rainfall (western and southern Africa) and remains constant in central Africa, where rainfall is projected to increase. Adaptation strategies should account for shorter wet seasons, increasing rainfall intensity, and decreasing rainfall frequency, which will have implications for crop yields and surface water supplies.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2231-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudhakar Dipu ◽  
Johannes Quaas ◽  
Ralf Wolke ◽  
Jens Stoll ◽  
Andreas Mühlbauer ◽  
...  

Abstract. The regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (MUSCAT) is extended in this work to represent aerosol–cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol–radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°  ×  0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol–cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5 %, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5 %.


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