Weakened Interannual Variability in the Tropical Atlantic

Climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic is complex with strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, where the sea surface temperature (SST) variability impacts the hydroclimate of the surrounding continents. We observe a decrease in the variability of the Tropical Atlantic after 1970 in both CMIP6 models and observations. Most of the Tropical Atlantic interannual variability is explained by its equatorial (Atlantic Zonal Mode, AZM) and meridional (Atlantic Meridional Mode, AMM) modes of variability. The observed wind relaxation after 1970 in both the equatorial and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) plays a role in the decreased variability. Concerning the AZM, a widespread warming trend is observed in the equatorial Atlantic accompanied by a weakening trend of the trade winds. This drives a weakening in the Bjerknes Feedback by deepening the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and increasing the thermal damping. Even though individually the TNA and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) show increased variability, the observed asymmetric warming in the Tropical Atlantic and relaxed northeast trade winds after the 70s play a role in decreasing the AMM variability. This configuration leads to positive Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, increasing further the TNA SST, preventing AMM from changing phases as before 1970. Associated with it, the African Sahel shows a positive precipitation trend and the Intertropical Convergence Zone tends to shift northward, which acts on maintaining the increased precipitation.

El Niño–Global Atmospheric Oscillation as the Main Mode of Interannual Climate Variability

The interannual variability of the global mean monthly anomalies of near-surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed near the surface, amount of precipitation and total cloudiness was investigated. The amplitudes of the anomalies of these hydrometeorological characteristics between opposite phases of the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) were calculated. The regional element of the GAO in the tropics of the Indian and Pacific Oceans is the Southern Oscillation. The results show that the oscillations of these characteristics are associated with the GAO not only in the tropical belt of the Earth but also in the middle and high latitudes, especially in the Arctic and northern Eurasia. The physical mechanism by which the transition of the GAO from the negative to the positive phase influences the weakening of the Pacific trade winds, and, as a consequence, the onset of El Niño is described.

Indian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño

Atlantic Niño is the Atlantic equivalent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has prominent impacts on regional and global climate. Existing studies suggest that the Atlantic Niño may arise from local atmosphere-ocean interaction and is sometimes triggered by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), with overall weak ENSO contribution. By analyzing observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments, here we show that the Atlantic Niño can be induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that the enhanced rainfall in the western tropical Indian Ocean during positive IOD weakens the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic, causing warm anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic basin and therefore triggering the Atlantic Niño. Our finding suggests that the cross-basin impact from the tropical Indian Ocean plays a more important role in affecting interannual climate variability than previously thought.

Hydrodynamic influences on sedimentology and geomorphology of nearshore parts of carbonate ramps: Holocene, NE Yucatán Shelf, Mexico

ABSTRACT Although carbonate ramps are ubiquitous in the geologic record, the impacts of oceanographic processes on their facies patterns are less well constrained than with other carbonate geomorphic forms such as isolated carbonate platforms. To better understand the role of physical and chemical oceanographic forces on geomorphic and sedimentologic variability of ramps, this study examines in-situ field measurements, remote-sensing data, and hydrodynamic modeling of the nearshore inner ramp of the modern northeastern Yucatán Shelf, Mexico. The results reveal how sediment production and accumulation are influenced by the complex interactions of the physical, chemical, and biological processes on the ramp. Upwelled, cool, nutrient-rich waters are transported westward across the ramp and concentrated along the shoreline by cold fronts (Nortes), westerly regional currents, and longshore currents. This influx supports a mix of both heterozoan and photozoan fauna and flora in the nearshore realm. Geomorphically, the nearshore parts of this ramp system in the study area include lagoon, barrier island, and shoreface environments, influenced by the mixed-energy (wave and tidal) setting. Persistent trade winds, episodic tropical depressions, and winter storms generate waves that propagate onto the shoreface. Extensive shore-parallel sand bodies (beach ridges and subaqueous dune fields) of the high-energy, wave-dominated upper shoreface and foreshore are composed of fine to coarse skeletal sand, lack mud, and include highly abraded, broken and bored grains. The large shallow lagoon is mixed-energy: wave-dominated near the inlet, it transitions to tide-dominated in the more protected central and eastern regions. Lagoon sediment consists of Halimeda-rich muddy gravel and sand. Hydrodynamic forces are especially strong where bathymetry focuses water flow, as occurs along a promontory and at the lagoon inlet, and can form subaqueous dunes. Explicit comparison among numerical models of conceptual shorefaces in which variables are altered and isolated systematically demonstrates the influences of the winds, waves, tides, and currents on hydrodynamics across a broad spectrum of settings (e.g., increased tidal range, differing wind and wave conditions). Results quantify how sediment transport patterns are determined by wave height and direction relative to the shoreface, but tidal forces locally control geomorphic and sedimentologic character. Similarly, the physical oceanographic processes acting throughout the year (e.g., daily tides, episodic winter Nortes, and persistent easterly winds and waves) have more impact on geomorphology and sedimentology of comparable nearshore systems than intense, but infrequent, hurricanes. Overall, this study provides perspectives on how upwelling, nutrient levels, and hydrodynamics influence the varied sedimentologic and geomorphic character of the nearshore areas of this high-energy carbonate ramp system. These results also provide for more accurate and realistic conceptual models of the depositional variability for a spectrum of modern and ancient ramp systems.

Upper-Bound General Circulation of the Ocean: A Theoretical Exposition

This paper considers the general ocean circulation (GOC) within the thermodynamical closure of our climate theory, which aims to deduce the generic climate state from first principles. The preceding papers of this theory have reduced planetary fluids to warm/cold masses and determined their bulk properties, which provide prior constraints for the derivation of the upper-bound circulation when the potential vorticity (PV) is homogenized in moving masses. In a companion paper on the general atmosphere circulation (GAC), this upper bound is seen to reproduce the observed prevailing wind, therefore forsaking discordant explanations of the easterly trade winds and the polar jet stream. In this paper on the ocean, we again show that this upper bound may replicate broad features of the observed circulation, including a western-intensified subtropical gyre and a counter-rotating tropical gyre feeding the equatorial undercurrent. Since PV homogenization has short-circuited the wind curl, the Sverdrup dynamics does not need to be the sole progenitor of the western intensification, as commonly perceived. Together with GAC, we posit that PV homogenization provides a unifying dynamical principle of the large-scale planetary circulation, which may be interpreted as the maximum macroscopic motion extractable by microscopic stirring, within the confines of thermal differentiation.

Seasonal Predictions of Holopelagic Sargassum Across the Tropical Atlantic Accounting for Uncertainty in Drivers and Processes: The SARTRAC Ensemble Forecast System

The holopelagic macroalgae sargassum has proliferated across the tropical Atlantic since 2011, of consequence for coastal populations from West Africa to the Caribbean with limited early warning of major beaching events. As part of an interdisciplinary project, ‘Teleconnected SARgassum risks across the Atlantic: building capacity for TRansformational Adaptation in the Caribbean and West Africa’ (SARTRAC), an ensemble forecast system, SARTRAC-EFS, is providing seasonal predictions of sargassum drift. An eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast provides the winds and currents necessary to generate ensemble members. Ensemble forecasts are then obtained for different combinations of ‘windage’, the fractional influence of winds on sargassum mats, and in situ rates of growth, mortality, and sinking. Forecasts for north and south of Jamaica are evaluated with satellite-observed distributions, associated with beaching events in specific years of heavy inundation, 2015 and 2018-20. These seasonal forecasts are evaluated, on lead times of up to 180 days. Forecasts are subject to leading modes of tropical climate variability, in particular the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). More accurate forecasts for a given year are obtained with ensemble members from hindcast years with a similar spring AMM-index. This is most clearly evident during negative AMM phases in spring of 2015 and 2018, when positive sea surface temperature anomalies and anomalously weak trade winds were established across the northern tropics. On this evidence, SARTRAC-EFS is potentially useful in providing early warning of high sargassum prevalence. Extended to sargassum drift off West Africa, extensive cloud cover limits availability of the satellite data needed for full application and evaluation of SARTRAC-EFS in this region, although experimental forecasts off the coast of Ghana are found highly sensitive to the windage that is associated with strong onshore winds during boreal summer. Alongside other forecast systems, SARTRAC-EFS is providing useful early warnings of sargassum inundation at seasonal timescale.

Mesoscale spatio-temporal variability of airborne lidar-derived aerosol properties in the Barbados region during EUREC⁴A

From 23 January to 13 February 2020, twenty ATR-42 scientific flights were conducted in the framework of the EUREC4A field campaign over the tropical Atlantic, off the coast of Barbados (−58°30' W 13°30' N). By means of a side-pointing lidar, these flights allowed to retrieve the optical properties of the aerosols found in the sub-cloud layer and below the trade winds inversion. Two distinct periods with significant aerosol contents were identified in relationship with the so-called trade wind and tropical regimes, respectively. A very strong spatial heterogeneity of the aerosol field has been highlighted at the airborne measurements scale of a few tens of kilometres. This heterogeneity, difficult to capture using spaceborne instruments, can be related to the highly variable relative humidity field and the fractional cloud cover encountered during all the flights.

The Role of Stokes Drift in the Dispersal of North Atlantic Surface Marine Debris

Understanding the physical mechanisms behind the transport and accumulation of floating objects in the ocean is crucial to efficiently tackle the issue of marine pollution. The main sinks of marine plastic are the coast and the bottom sediment. This study focuses on the former, investigating the timescales of dispersal from the ocean surface and onto coastal accumulation areas through a process called “beaching.” Previous studies found that the Stokes drift can reach the same magnitude as the Eulerian current speed and that it has a long-term effect on the trajectories of floating objects. Two particle tracking models (PTMs) are carried out and then compared, one with and one without Stokes drift, named PTM-SD and PTM-REF, respectively. Eulerian velocity and Stokes drift data from global reanalysis datasets are used for particle advection. Particles in the PTM-SD model are found to beach at a yearly rate that is double the rate observed in PTM-REF. The main coastal attractors are consistent with the direction of large-scale atmospheric circulation (Westerlies and Trade Winds). After 12 years (at the end of the run), the amount of beached particles is 20% larger in PTM-SD than in PTM-REF. Long-term predictions carried out with the aid of adjacency matrices found that after 100 years all particles have beached in PTM-SD, while 8% of the all seeded particles are still floating in PTM-REF. The results confirm the need to accurately represent the Stokes drift in particle models attempting to predict the behaviour of marine debris, in order to avoid overestimation of its residence time in the ocean and effectively guide policies toward prevention and removal.

Cloud Radar Observations of Diurnal and Seasonal Cloudiness over Reunion Island

In November 2016, a 95 GHz cloud radar was permanently deployed in Reunion Island to investigate the vertical distribution of tropical clouds and monitor the temporal variability of cloudiness in the frame of the pan-European research infrastructure Aerosol, Clouds and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS). In the present study, reflectivity observations collected during the two first years of operation (2016–2018) of this vertically pointing cloud radar are relied upon to investigate the diurnal and seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the northern part of this island. During the wet season (December–March), cloudiness is particularly pronounced between 1–3 km above sea level (with a frequency of cloud occurrence of 45% between 12:00–19:00 LST) and 8–12 km (with a frequency of cloud occurrence of 15% between 14:00–19:00 LST). During the dry season (June–September), this bimodal vertical mode is no longer observed and the vertical cloud extension is essentially limited to a height of 3 km due to both the drop-in humidity resulting from the northward migration of the ITCZ and the capping effect of the trade winds inversion. The frequency of cloud occurrence is at its maximum between 13:00–18:00 LST, with a probability of 35% at 15 LST near an altitude of 2 km. The analysis of global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-derived weather data also shows that the diurnal cycle of low- (1–3 km) and mid-to-high level (5–10 km) clouds is strongly correlated with the diurnal evolution of tropospheric humidity, suggesting that additional moisture is advected towards the island by the sea breeze regime. The detailed analysis of cloudiness observations collected during the four seasons sampled in 2017 and 2018 also shows substantial differences between the two years, possibly associated with a strong positive Indian Ocean Southern Dipole (IOSD) event extending throughout the year 2017.