scholarly journals Ridging Associated with Drought across the Western and Southwestern United States: Characteristics, Trends, and Predictability Sources

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 2485-2508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter B. Gibson ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Bin Guan ◽  
Michael J. DeFlorio ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Ridge Detection ◽  
The Pacific

AbstractPersistent winter ridging events are a consistent feature of meteorological drought across the western and southwestern United States. In this study, a ridge detection algorithm is developed and applied on daily geopotential height anomalies to track and quantify the diversity of individual ridge characteristics (e.g., position, frequency, magnitude, extent, and persistence). Three dominant ridge types are shown to play important, but differing, roles for influencing the location of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs), precipitation, and subsequently meteorological drought. For California, a combination of these ridge types is important for influencing precipitation deficits on daily through seasonal time scales, indicating the various pathways by which ridging can induce drought. Furthermore, both the frequency of ridge types and reduced AR activity are necessary features for explaining drought variability on seasonal time scales across the western and southwestern regions. The three ridge types are found to be associated in different ways with various remote drivers and modes of variability, highlighting possible sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. A comparison between ridge types shows that anomalously large and persistent ridging events relate to different Rossby wave trains across the Pacific with different preferential upstream locations of tropical heating. For the “South-ridge” type, centered over the Southwest, a positive trend is found in both the frequency and persistence of these events across recent decades, likely contributing to observed regional drying. These results illustrate the utility of feature tracking for characterizing a wider range of ridging features that collectively influence precipitation deficits and drought.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3846-3856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.

An Updated Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Impacts on the Southwestern United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (12) ◽  
pp. 4322-4336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly M. Wood ◽  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Oscillation Phenomenon ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Significant Patterns

Abstract A dataset of 167 eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated for potential impacts in the southwestern United States over the period 1989–2009 and evaluated in the context of a 30-yr climatology. The statistically significant patterns from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis demonstrate the prevalence of a midlatitude trough pattern when TC-related rainfall occurs in the southwestern United States. Conversely, the presence of a strong subtropical ridge tends to prevent such events from occurring and limits TC-related rainfall to Mexico. These statistically significant patterns correspond well with previous work. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is shown to have some effect on eastern North Pacific TC impacts on the southwestern United States, as shifts in the general circulation can subsequently influence which regions receive rainfall from TCs or their remnants. The Pacific decadal oscillation may have a greater influence during the period of study as evidenced by EOF analysis of sea surface temperature anomalies.

scholarly journals A hybrid statistical-dynamical framework for meteorological drought prediction: Application to the southwestern United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 5095-5110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahrbanou Madadgar ◽  
Amir AghaKouchak ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Linyin Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Drought Prediction

A Comparative Study of Precipitation and Evaporation between CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Model Ensembles in Semiarid Regions

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3731-3749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel C. Baker ◽  
Huei-Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
First Century ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Semiarid Regions ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Model Ensembles

Abstract The twentieth-century climatology and twenty-first-century trend in precipitation P, evaporation E, and P − E for selected semiarid U.S. Southwest and Mediterranean regions are compared between ensembles from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The twentieth-century simulations are validated with precipitation from observation and evaporation from reanalysis. It is found that the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B simulations in CMIP3 and the simulations with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 produce qualitatively similar seasonal cycles of the twenty-first-century trend in P − E for both semiarid regions. For the southwestern United States, it is characterized by a strong drying trend in spring, a weak moistening trend in summer, a weak drying trend in winter, and an overall drying trend for the annual mean. For the Mediterranean region, a drying trend is simulated for all seasons with an October maximum and July minimum. The consistency between CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios indicates that the simulated trend is robust; however, while the trend in P − E is negative in spring for the southwestern United States for all CMIP ensembles, CMIP3 predicts a strongly negative trend in P and minor negative trend in E whereas both CMIP5 scenarios predict a nearly zero trend in P and positive trend in E. For the twentieth-century simulations, the P, E, and P − E of the two model ensembles are statistically indistinguishable for most seasons. This “stagnation” of the simulated climatology from CMIP3 to CMIP5 implies that the hydroclimatic variable biases have not decreased in the newer generation of models. Notably, over the southwestern United States the CMIP3 models produce too much precipitation in the cold season. This bias remains almost unchanged in CMIP5.

scholarly journals Dominant Time Scales of Potentially Predictable Precipitation Variations across the Continental United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 8881-8897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Dan J. S. Gianotti ◽  
Guido Salvucci ◽  
Jason Furtado
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
Event Occurrence

Abstract While low-frequency variations in precipitation amount, occurrence counts (hereafter “occurrence”), and intensity can take place on seasonal to multidecadal time scales, it is often unclear at which time scales these precipitation variations can be ascribed to potentially predictable, climate-induced changes versus simple, stochastic (i.e., random) precipitation event evolutions. This paper seeks to isolate the dominant time scales at which potentially predictable changes in observed precipitation characteristics occur over the continental United States and analyze sources of revealed potentially predictable precipitation variations for particular regions. The results highlight that at interannual time scales (here defined as those shorter than 7 years), the potential for predicting annual precipitation amounts tends to be higher than for annual event occurrence or intensity, with interannual potential predictability highest in both relatively dry and wet locations and lowest in transition regions. By contrast, at time scales greater than 7 years the potential for predicting annual event occurrence tends to be higher than amount or intensity, with >20-yr time scale potential predictability highest in relatively wet locations and lowest in relatively dry locations. To highlight the utility of this type of analysis, two robust signals are selected for further investigation, including 1) approximately 10-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual amounts over the northwestern United States and 2) 20–60-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual event occurrence over the southwestern United States. While mechanistic drivers for these observed variations are still being investigated, concurrent and precursor climate-state estimates in the atmosphere and ocean—principally over the Pacific sector—are provided, the monitoring of which may help realize the potential for predicting precipitation variations in these regions.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Leading Drivers of Pacific Coastal Drought Variability in the Contiguous United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin I. Cook ◽  
A. Park Williams ◽  
Justin S. Mankin ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Strong Correlations ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Drought Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Coastal droughts that simultaneously affect California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but they have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire and agriculture). To better understand these events, historical observations are used to investigate 1) drought variability along the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States and 2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October–March) precipitation variability along the Pacific coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounting for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode (~20% of precipitation variability) characterized by antiphased moisture anomalies across 40°N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895 to 2016 (clustering in the 1920s–1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40°N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts but not north of this boundary, where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful seasonal predictions. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks.

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