An Updated Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Impacts on the Southwestern United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (12) ◽  
pp. 4322-4336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly M. Wood ◽  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Oscillation Phenomenon ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Significant Patterns

Abstract A dataset of 167 eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated for potential impacts in the southwestern United States over the period 1989–2009 and evaluated in the context of a 30-yr climatology. The statistically significant patterns from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis demonstrate the prevalence of a midlatitude trough pattern when TC-related rainfall occurs in the southwestern United States. Conversely, the presence of a strong subtropical ridge tends to prevent such events from occurring and limits TC-related rainfall to Mexico. These statistically significant patterns correspond well with previous work. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is shown to have some effect on eastern North Pacific TC impacts on the southwestern United States, as shifts in the general circulation can subsequently influence which regions receive rainfall from TCs or their remnants. The Pacific decadal oscillation may have a greater influence during the period of study as evidenced by EOF analysis of sea surface temperature anomalies.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3846-3856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.

scholarly journals Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 2237-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong Wu ◽  
Xiaochun Wang ◽  
Li Tao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Peak Phase

AbstractIn this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

scholarly journals Distinct Influences of the ENSO-Like and PMM-Like SST Anomalies on the Mean TC Genesis Location in the Western North Pacific: The 2015 Summer as an Extreme Example

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 3049-3059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Cherng Hong ◽  
Ming-Ying Lee ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Wan-Ling Tseng
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
East West

Abstract This study reports the different effects of tropical and subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the mean tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location in the western North Pacific (WNP), a TC–SSTA relationship that has been largely ignored. In the Pacific, the interannual variability of the tropical SSTA in the boreal summer is characterized by an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, whereas the subtropical SSTA exhibits a Pacific meridional mode (PMM)-like structure. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the ENSO-like and PMM-like SSTAs dominate the south–north and east–west shift of mean TC genesis location, respectively. The 2015/16 El Niño was a strong event comparable with the 1997/98 event in terms of Niño-3.4 SSTA. However, the mean TC genesis location in the WNP during the summer of 2015 exhibited an unprecedented eastward shift by approximately 10 longitudinal degrees relative to that in 1997. Whereas the ENSO-like SSTAs in 1997 and 2015 were approximately equal, the amplitude of the PMM-like SSTA in 2015 was approximately twice as large as that in 1997. Numerical experiments forced by the ENSO-like and PMM-like SSTAs in June–August 2015 reveal that the positive PMM-like SSTA forces an east–west overturning circulation anomaly in the subtropical North Pacific with anomalously ascending (descending) motion in the subtropical central (western) Pacific. The mean TC genesis location in the WNP therefore shifts eastward when warmer SST occurs in the subtropical eastern Pacific. This finding supports the hypothesis that the extremely positive PMM-like SSTA in the summer of 2015 caused the unprecedented eastward shift of the TC genesis location in the WNP.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

Intraseasonal Teleconnection between North American and Western North Pacific Monsoons with 20-Day Time Scale

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2664-2679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Ngar-Cheung Lau
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North

Abstract Based on a recently released, high-resolution reanalysis dataset for the North American region, the intraseasonal variability (ISV; with a time scale of about 20 days) of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. The rainfall signals associated with this phenomenon first emerge near the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific at about 20°N. They subsequently migrate to the southwestern United States along the slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. The rainfall quickly dissipates upon arrival at the desert region of Arizona and New Mexico (AZNM). The enhanced rainfall over AZNM is accompanied by strong southeasterly low-level flow along the Gulf of California. This pattern bears strong resemblance to the circulation related to “gulf surge” events, as documented by many studies. The southeasterly flow is associated with an anomalous low vortex over the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean off California, and a midlatitude anticyclone over the central United States in the lower troposphere. This flow pattern is in broad agreement with that favoring the “wet surges” over the southwestern United States. It is further demonstrated that the aforementioned low-level circulations associated with ISV of the NAM are part of a prominent trans-Pacific wave train extending from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Eastern Pacific/North America along a “great circle” path. The circulation anomalies along the axis of this wave train exhibit a barotropic vertical structure over most regions outside of the WNP, and a baroclinic structure over the WNP, thus suggesting the important role of convective activities over the WNP in sustaining this wave train. This inference is further substantiated by an analysis of the pattern of wave-activity–flux vectors. Variations in the WNP convection are correlated with the ISV of the monsoons in both North American and East Asian (EA)/WNP sectors. These relationships lead to notable teleconnections between NAM and the EA/WNP monsoon on 20-day time scales.

scholarly journals Seasonal Variation and Spatial Patterns of the Atmospheric Component of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1575-1594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrin M. Mills ◽  
John E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Difference Fields

Abstract The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like climate oscillation that varies on multidecadal and higher-frequency scales, with a sea surface temperature (SST) dipole in the Pacific. This study addresses the seasonality, vertical structure, and across-variable relationships of the local North Pacific and downstream North American atmospheric signal of the PDO. The PDO-based composite difference fields of 500-mb geopotential height, surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation vary not only across seasons, but also from one calendar month to another within a season, although month-to-month continuity is apparent. The most significant signals occur in western North America and in the southeastern United States, where a positive PDO is associated with negative heights, consistent with underlying temperatures in the winter. In summer, a negative precipitation signal in the southeastern United States associated with a positive PDO phase is consistent with a ridge over the region. When an annual harmonic is fit to the 12 monthly surface air temperature differences at each grid point, the PDO temperature signal peaks in winter in most of North America, while a peak in summer occurs in the southeastern United States. Approximately 25% of the variance of the PDO index is accounted for by ENSO. Atmospheric composite differences based on a residual (ENSO linearly removed) PDO index have many similarities to those of the full PDO signal.

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