The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January Is More Difficult to Predict Than February

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (20) ◽  
pp. 8651-8670
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Hailan Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
The West ◽  
Circulation Anomaly ◽  
Northeast Pacific ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

AbstractThis study examines the within-season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December–March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1-month-lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skill is the result of the model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting in precipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly, which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet—something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacific is the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Beverley ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Robin Chadwick
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability and it exerts a strong influence on many remote regions of the world, for example in northern North America. Here, we examine future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector and investigate the mechanisms involved. We find that the positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America that are associated with an El Niño event in the present day are much weaker, or of the opposite sign, in the CMIP6 abrupt 4×CO2 experiments for almost all models (22 out of 26, of which 15 are statistically significant differences). This is largely related to changes to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, rather than differences in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using a barotropic model, run with different background circulation basic states and Rossby wave source forcing patterns from the individual CMIP6 models, we find that changes to the forcing from the equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more important than changes in the global basic state background circulation. By further decomposing this forcing change into changes associated with the longitude and magnitude of ENSO precipitation anomalies, we demonstrate that the projected overall eastward shift of ENSO precipitation is the main driver of the temperature teleconnection change, rather than the increase in magnitude of El Niño precipitation anomalies which are, nevertheless, seen in the majority of models.

Introduction to ‘The 1997–8 El Niño Atlas of oceanographic conditions along the west coast of North America (23°N–50°N)’

2002 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 503-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.G. Castro ◽  
T.R. Baumgartner ◽  
S. Bograd ◽  
R. Castro ◽  
F.P. Chavez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
West Coast ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The West ◽  
Oceanographic Conditions

scholarly journals Winter 2015/16 Atmospheric and Precipitation Anomalies over North America: El Niño Response and the Role of Noise

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (3) ◽  
pp. 909-927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Precipitation Response ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The possible causes for the observed winter 2015/16 precipitation anomalies, which were opposite to the mean El Niño signal over the U.S. Southwest, are analyzed based on the ensemble of forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The analysis focuses on the role of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) forcing and the contributions of atmospheric internal variability. The model-predicted ensemble mean forecast for December–January–February 2015/16 (DJF 2015/16) North American atmospheric anomalies compared favorably with the El Niño composite, although some difference existed. The predicted pattern was also like that in the previous strong El Niño events of 1982/83 and 1997/98. Therefore, the model largely predicted the teleconnection and precipitation response pattern in DJF 2015/16 like the mean El Niño signal. The observed negative precipitation anomalies over the U.S. Southwest in DJF 2015/16 were not consistent either with the observed or with the model-predicted El Niño composite. Analysis of the member-to-member variability in the ensemble of forecast anomalies allowed quantification of the contribution of atmospheric internal variability in shaping seasonal mean anomalies. There were considerable variations in the outcome of DJF 2015/16 precipitation over North America from one forecast to another even though the predicted SSTs were nearly identical. The observed DJF 2015/16 precipitation anomalies were well within the envelope of possible forecast outcomes. Therefore, the atmospheric internal variability could have played a considerable role in determining the observed DJF 2015/16 negative precipitation anomalies over the U.S. Southwest, and its role is discussed in the context of differences in response.

scholarly journals Impact of the El Niño type and PDO on the winter sub-seasonal North American zonal temperature dipole via the variability of positive PNA patterns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Ge ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The West ◽  
Anticyclonic Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In recent years, the winter (from December to February, DJF) North American surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in midlatitudes shows a “warm west/cold east” (WWCE) dipole pattern. To some extent, the winter WWCE dipole can be considered as being a result of the winter mean of sub-seasonal WWCE events. In this paper, the Pacific SST condition linked to the sub-seasonal WWCE SAT dipole is investigated. It is found that while the sub-seasonal WWCE dipole is related to the positive Pacific North American (PNA+) pattern, the impact of the PNA+ on the WWCE dipole depends on the El Niño SST type and the phase of Pacific decadal Oscillation (PDO). For a central-Pacific (CP) type El Niño, the positive (negative) height anomaly center of PNA+ is located in the west (east) part of North America to result in an intensified WWCE dipole, though the positive PDO favors the WWCE dipole. In contrast, the WWCE dipole is suppressed under an Eastern-Pacific (EP) type El Niño because the PNA+ anticyclonic anomaly dominates the whole North America.Moreover, the physical cause of why the type of El Niño influences the PNA+ is further examined. It is found that the type of El Niño can significantly influence the location of PNA+ through changing North Pacific midlatitude westerly winds (NPWWs). For the CP-type El Niño, the eastward migration of PNA+ is suppressed to favor its anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly appearing in the west (east) region of North American owing to reduced NPWWs. But for the EP-type El Niño, NPWWs are intensified to cause the appearance of the PNA+ anticyclonic anomaly over the whole North America due to enhanced Hadley cell and Ferrell cell.

El Niño along the west coast of North America

2002 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco P Chavez ◽  
Curtis A Collins ◽  
Adriana Huyer ◽  
David L Mackas
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
West Coast ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The West

scholarly journals Assessing ENSO Summer Teleconnections, Impacts, and Predictability in North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Bor-Ting Jong ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Richard Seager
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

AbstractDuring the summer when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña, the extratropical teleconnections exert robust warming anomalies over the United States Midwest threatening agricultural production. This study assesses the performance of current climate models in capturing the prominent observed extratropical responses over North America during the transitioning La Niña summer, based on Atmospheric General Circulation Model experiments and coupled models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The ensemble mean of the SST-forced experiments across the transitioning La Niña summers does not capture the robust warming in the Midwest. The SST-forced experiments do not produce consistent subtropical western Pacific (WP) negative precipitation anomalies and this leads to the poor simulations of extratropical teleconnections over North America. In the NMME models, with active air-sea interaction, the negative WP precipitation anomalies show better agreement across the models and with observations. However, the downstream wave-train pattern and the resulting extratropical responses over North America exhibit large disagreement across the models and are consistently weaker than in observations. Furthermore, in these climate models, an anomalous anticyclone does not robustly translate into warm anomaly over the Midwest, in disagreement with observations. This work suggests that, during the El Niño to La Niña transitioning summer, active air-sea interaction is important in simulating tropical precipitation over the WP. Nevertheless, skillful representations of the Rossby wave propagation and land-atmosphere processes in climate models are also essential for skillful simulations of extratropical responses over North America.

scholarly journals The North American Spring Coldness Response to the Persistent Weak Stratospheric Vortex Induced by Extreme El Niño Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Quanliang Chen ◽  
Yang Li ◽  
Yawei Yang ◽  
Shaobo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

The stratospheric pathway is a major driver of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on mid-latitude tropospheric circulation and winter weather. The weak vortex induced by El Niño conditions has been shown to increase the risk of cold spells, especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. This study involved idealized experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to examine how the weak winter vortex induced by extreme El Niño events is linked to North American coldness in spring. Contrary to the expected mid-latitude cooling associated with a weak vortex, extreme El Niño events do not lead to North American cooling overall, with daily cold extremes actually decreasing, especially in Canada. The expected cooling is absent in most of North America because of the advection of warmer air masses guided by an enhanced ridge over Canada and a trough over the Aleutian Peninsula. This pattern persists in spring as a result of the trapping of stationary waves from the polar stratosphere and troposphere, implying that the stratospheric influence on North America is sensitive to regional downward wave activities.

scholarly journals Influence of Background Divergent Moisture Flux on the Frequency of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Samson HagosP ◽  
L. Ruby LeungP ◽  
Oluwayemi Garuba ◽  
Christina M. Patricola
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
West Coast ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Modes Of Variability

AbstractThe frequency of North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs) affects water supply and flood risk over western North America. Thus, understanding factors that affect the variability of landfalling AR frequency is of scientific and societal importance. This study aims at identifying the sources of the moisture for North Pacific ARs and assessing how different modes of variability modulate these sources. To this end, the sources and variability of the background divergent component of the integrated moisture flux (DIVT) in ARs are identified using MERRA reanalysis. It is shown that in the boreal winter, this background DIVT in ARs is related to the outflow from the subsidence over the subtropics which transports moisture northward, while in summer it is related to the Asian monsoon and it transports moisture northwestward. This leads to a seasonal northwest/southeast movement of the AR frequency climatology. At the intra-seasonal scale, propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation introduces an anti-clockwise rotation of the background DIVT, with northward transport in phases 1 and 2, westward in 3 and 4, southward in 5 and 6 and eastward in 7 and 8, making landfall over the west coast of North America most likely during the last two phases. Similarly, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability also affects the frequency of ARs through modulation of the westerly background DIVT, favoring landfall over the US west coast during strong El Niño phases. It is shown that in general the likelihood of AR landfall over the western US is correlated with the zonal background DIVT over northeastern Pacific.

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

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