Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

Errors in the winter temperature response to ENSO over North America in seasonal forecast models

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Seon Tae Kim ◽  
Yun-Young Lee ◽  
Ji-Hyun Oh ◽  
A-Young Lim
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Enso Phases

AbstractThis study presents the ability of seasonal forecast models to represent the observed mid-latitude teleconnection associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the North American region for the winter months of December, January, and February. Further, the impacts of the associated errors on regional forecast performance for winter temperatures are evaluated, with a focus on one-month lead time forecasts. In most models, there exists a strong linear relationship of temperature anomalies with ENSO and, thus, a clear anomaly sign separation between both ENSO phases persists throughout the winter, whereas linear relationships are weak in observations. This leads to a difference in the temperature forecast performance between the two ENSO phases. Forecast verification scores show that the winter season warming (cooling) events during El Niño in northern (southern) North America are more correctly forecasted in the models than the cooling (warming) events during La Niña. One possible reason for this result is that the remote atmospheric teleconnection pattern in the models is almost linear or symmetric between the El Niño and La Niña phases. The strong linear atmospheric teleconnection appears to be associated with the models’ failure in simulating the westward shift of the tropical Pacific rainfall response for the La Niña phase compared to that for the El Niño phase, which is attributed to the warmer central tropical Pacific in the models. This study highlights that understanding how the predictive performance of climate models varies according to El Niño or La Niña phases is very important when utilizing predictive information from seasonal forecast models.

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the U.S. Climate during Northern Summer

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2165-2177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
C-P. Chang ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Barotropic Model ◽  
Northern Summer ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the U.S. climate during northern summer are analyzed separately. Composite analyses reveal that a continental-scale anomalous high dominates over most of North America during La Niña events and leads to hot and dry summers over the central United States. However, the impacts of El Niño over North America are weaker and more variable. A linear barotropic model is used to explore the maintenance of the anomalous patterns. Various forcing terms derived from observations via a single-level vorticity budget analysis are used to drive the model. When the barotropic model is driven by the total forcing (Rossby wave source plus transient eddy forcing plus nonlinear interactions), the model simulations resemble the observed patterns, and a strong and extensive anticyclone is reproduced in the La Niña simulation. The model responses to the individual forcing terms suggested that the vorticity stretching term ( fD) and the transient eddy forcing contribute most to the responses over North America. The stretching term ( fD) excites a low in the El Niño simulation and a high in the La Niña simulation over North America. However, the transient eddy forcing favors an anomalous high over North America in both El Niño and La Niña simulations, such that it weakens the El Niño pattern and strengthens the La Niña pattern.

scholarly journals Why Do Similar Patterns of Tropical Convection Yield Extratropical Circulation Anomalies of Opposite Sign?

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 487-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Goss ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Opposite Sign ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Tropical precipitation anomalies associated with El Niño and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phase 1 (La Niña and MJO phase 5) are characterized by a tripole, with positive (negative) centers over the Indian Ocean and central Pacific and a negative (positive) center over the warm pool region. However, their midlatitude circulation responses over the North Pacific and North America tend to be of opposite sign. To investigate these differences in the extratropical response to tropical convection, the dynamical core of a climate model is used, with boreal winter climatology as the initial flow. The model is run using the full heating field for the above four cases, and with heating restricted to each of seven small domains located near or over the equator, to investigate which convective anomalies may be responsible for the different extratropical responses. An analogous observational study is also performed. For both studies, it is found that, despite having a similar tropical convective anomaly spatial pattern, the extratropical response to El Niño and MJO phase 1 (La Niña and MJO phase 5) is quite different. Most notably, responses with opposite-signed upper-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies are found over the eastern North Pacific, northwestern North America, and the southeastern United States. The extratropical response for each convective case most closely resembles that for the domain associated with the largest-amplitude precipitation anomaly: the central equatorial Pacific for El Niño and La Niña and the warm pool region for MJO phases 1 and 5.

scholarly journals Can ENSO-Like Convection Force an ENSO-Like Extratropical Response on Subseasonal Time Scales?

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8339-8349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Goss ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Western North America ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The North Pacific

A daily El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is developed based on precipitation rate and is used to investigate subseasonal time-scale extratropical circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-like convective heating. The index, referred to as the El Niño precipitation index (ENPI), is anomalously positive when there is El Niño–like convection. Conversely, the ENPI is anomalously negative when there is La Niña–like convection. It is found that when precipitation becomes El Niño–like (La Niña–like) on subseasonal time scales, the 300-hPa geopotential height field over the North Pacific and western North America becomes El Niño–like (La Niña–like) within 5–10 days. The composites show a small association with the MJO. These results are supported by previous modeling studies, which show that the response over the North Pacific and western North America to an equatorial Pacific heating anomaly occurs within about one week. This suggests that the mean seasonal extratropical response to El Niño (La Niña) may in effect simply be the average of the subseasonal response to subseasonally varying El Niño–like (La Niña–like) convective heating. Implications for subseasonal to seasonal forecasting are discussed.

scholarly journals ENSO Teleconnections and Impacts on U.S. Summertime Temperature during a Multiyear La Niña Life Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (14) ◽  
pp. 6009-6024
Author(s):  
Bor-Ting Jong ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Weston B. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
La Nina

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections have been recognized as possible negative influences on crop yields in the United States during the summer growing season, especially in a developing La Niña summer. This study examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnections and remote impacts on the United States during a multiyear La Niña life cycle. Since 1950, a developing La Niña summer is either when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña or when a La Niña is persisting. Due to the distinct prior ENSO conditions, the oceanic and atmospheric characteristics in the tropics are dissimilar in these two different La Niña summers, leading to different teleconnection patterns. During the transitioning summer, the decaying El Niño and the developing La Niña induce suppressed deep convection over both the subtropical western Pacific (WP) and the tropical central Pacific (CP). Both of these two suppressed convection regions induce Rossby wave propagation extending toward North America, resulting in a statistically significant anomalous anticyclone over northeastern North America and, therefore, a robust warming signal over the Midwest. In contrast, during the persisting summer, only one suppressed convection region is present over the tropical CP induced by the La Niña SST forcing, resulting in a weak and insignificant extratropical teleconnection. Experiments from a stationary wave model confirm that the suppressed convection over the subtropical WP during the transitioning summer not only contributes substantially to the robust warming over the Midwest but also causes the teleconnections to be different from those in the persisting summer.

scholarly journals The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3471-3486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Chih Tseng ◽  
Eric Maloney ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Wave Ray

AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the MJO an important predictability source on subseasonal to seasonal time scales (S2S). Previous research demonstrates a strong similarity of teleconnection patterns across MJO events for certain MJO phases (i.e., pattern consistency) and increased model ensemble agreement during these phases that is beneficial for extended numerical weather forecasts. However, the MJO’s ability to modulate extratropical weather varies greatly on interannual time scales, which brings extra uncertainty in leveraging the MJO for S2S prediction. Few studies have investigated the mechanisms responsible for variations in the consistency of MJO tropical–extratropical teleconnections on interannual time scales. This study uses reanalysis data, ensemble simulations of a linear baroclinic model, and a Rossby wave ray tracing algorithm to demonstrate that two mechanisms largely determine the interannual variability of MJO teleconnection consistency. First, the meridional shift of stationary Rossby wave ray paths indicates increases (decreases) in the MJO’s extratropical modulation during La Niña (El Niño) years. Second, a previous study proposed that the constructive interference of Rossby wave signals caused by a dipole Rossby wave source pattern across the subtropical jet during certain MJO phases produces a consistent MJO teleconnection. However, this dipole feature is less clear in both El Niño and La Niña years due to the extension and contraction of MJO convection, respectively, which would decrease the MJO’s influence in the extratropics. Hence, considering the joint influence of the basic state and MJO forcing, this study suggests a diminished potential to leverage the MJO for S2S prediction in El Niño years.

scholarly journals Severe Ice Conditions in the Bohai Sea, China, and Mild Ice Conditions in the Great Lakes during the 2009/10 Winter: Links to El Niño and a Strong Negative Arctic Oscillation

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (9) ◽  
pp. 1922-1935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang ◽  
Qinzheng Liu ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Yu Liu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Bohai Sea ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Bohai Sea ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Ice Conditions

AbstractThis study investigates the causes of severe ice conditions over the Bohai Sea, China, and mild ice cover over the North American Great Lakes under the same hemispheric climate patterns during the 2009/10 winter with a strong negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and an El Niño event. The main cause of severe ice cover over the Bohai Sea was the strong negative AO. Six of seven winters with severe ice were associated with a strong negative AO during the period 1954–2010. The Siberian high (SH) in the 2009/10 winter was close to normal. The influence of El Niño on the Bohai Sea was not significant. In contrast, the mild ice conditions in the Great Lakes were mainly caused by the strong El Niño event. Although the negative AO generally produces significant colder surface air temperature (SAT) and heavy ice cover over the Great Lakes, when it coincided with a strong El Niño event during the 2009/10 winter the El Niño–induced Pacific–North America (PNA)-like pattern dominated the midlatitudes and was responsible for the flattening of the ridge–trough system over North America, leading to warmer-than-normal temperatures and mild ice conditions over the Great Lakes. This comparative study revealed that interannual variability of SAT in North America, including the Great Lakes, is effectively influenced by El Niño events through a PNA or PNA-like pattern whereas the interannual variability of SAT in northeastern China, including the Bohai Sea area, was mainly controlled by AO and SH.

scholarly journals Assessing ENSO Summer Teleconnections, Impacts, and Predictability in North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Bor-Ting Jong ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Richard Seager
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

AbstractDuring the summer when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña, the extratropical teleconnections exert robust warming anomalies over the United States Midwest threatening agricultural production. This study assesses the performance of current climate models in capturing the prominent observed extratropical responses over North America during the transitioning La Niña summer, based on Atmospheric General Circulation Model experiments and coupled models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The ensemble mean of the SST-forced experiments across the transitioning La Niña summers does not capture the robust warming in the Midwest. The SST-forced experiments do not produce consistent subtropical western Pacific (WP) negative precipitation anomalies and this leads to the poor simulations of extratropical teleconnections over North America. In the NMME models, with active air-sea interaction, the negative WP precipitation anomalies show better agreement across the models and with observations. However, the downstream wave-train pattern and the resulting extratropical responses over North America exhibit large disagreement across the models and are consistently weaker than in observations. Furthermore, in these climate models, an anomalous anticyclone does not robustly translate into warm anomaly over the Midwest, in disagreement with observations. This work suggests that, during the El Niño to La Niña transitioning summer, active air-sea interaction is important in simulating tropical precipitation over the WP. Nevertheless, skillful representations of the Rossby wave propagation and land-atmosphere processes in climate models are also essential for skillful simulations of extratropical responses over North America.

scholarly journals On the Investigation of the Typology of Fog Events in an Arid Environment and the Link with Climate Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (8) ◽  
pp. 3181-3202 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. S. Mohan ◽  
Marouane Temimi ◽  
R. S. Ajayamohan ◽  
Narendra Reddy Nelli ◽  
Ricardo Fonseca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arid Environment ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Radiation Fog ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The central aim of this work is to investigate the characteristics of fog events over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and identify the underlying physical processes responsible for fog initiation and dissipation. To achieve this, hourly meteorological measurements at eight airport stations, along with ERA5 reanalysis data (1995–2018), are utilized. The analysis indicates the dominance of radiation fog (RAD) as, on average, 70% of the observed events fall under this category. Fog in the UAE typically forms between 2000 and 0200 local time (LT) and dissipates between 0600 and 0900 LT. During a typical dense fog event recorded during 22–23 December 2017, cooling and moistening tendencies of up to 1.2 K h−1 and 0.7 g kg−1 h−1 are observed ~5–6 h before fog onset. In the vertical, a dry and warm layer above 750 hPa gradually descends from above 500 hPa to promote the development of fog. Similar conclusions are reached when analyzing composites of fog events. Further, the variability of fog occurrence associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns is explored. It is concluded that the El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold) phases exhibit very different spatial characteristics with respect to surface meteorological variables. In particular, during El Niño events, the near-surface atmosphere is cooler and moister compared to La Niña events, favoring RAD fog formation over the UAE. Besides, fog events during El Niño years tend to last longer compared to La Niña years due to an earlier onset.

scholarly journals Distinct Patterns of Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly and Their Impacts on North American Climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5221-5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Guo ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Dong Eun Lee
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cluster Technique ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

A neural-network-based cluster technique, the so-called self-organizing map (SOM), was performed to extract distinct sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns during boreal winter. The SOM technique has advantages in nonlinear feature extraction compared to the commonly used empirical orthogonal function analysis and is widely used in meteorology. The eight distinguishable SOM patterns so identified represent three La Niña–like patterns, two near-normal patterns, and three El Niño–like patterns. These patterns show the varied amplitude and location of the SST anomalies associated with El Niño and La Niña, such as the central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. The impact of each distinctive SOM pattern on winter-mean surface temperature and precipitation changes over North America was examined. Based on composite maps with observational data, each SOM pattern corresponds to a distinguishable spatial structure of temperature and precipitation anomaly over North America, which seems to result from differing wave train patterns, extending from the tropics to mid–high latitudes induced by longitudinally shifted tropical heating. The corresponding teleconnection as represented by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model, version 4 (CAM4), was compared with the observational results. It was found that the 16-member ensemble average of the CAM4 experiments with prescribed SST can reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation responses to the different SST SOM patterns, which suggests that the circulation differences are largely SST driven rather than due to internal atmospheric variability.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document