The effect of explicit convection on climate change in the West African monsoon and central West African Sahel rainfall

The West African monsoon (WAM) is the dominant feature of West African climate providing the majority of annual rainfall. Projections of future rainfall over the West African Sahel are deeply uncertain with a key reason likely to be moist convection, which is typically parameterized in global climate models. Here, we use a pan-Africa convection permitting simulation (CP4), alongside a parameterized convection simulation (P25), to determine the key processes that underpin the effect of explicit convection on the climate change of the central West African Sahel (8°W-2°E, 12-17°N). In current climate, CP4 affects WAM processes on multiple scales compared to P25. There are differences in the diurnal cycles of rainfall, moisture convergence, and atmospheric humidity. There are upscale impacts: the WAM penetrates farther north, there is greater humidity over the north Sahel and the Saharan heat low regions, the sub-tropical subsidence rate over the Sahara is weaker, and ascent within the tropical rain belt is deeper. Under climate change, the WAM shifts northwards and Hadley circulation weakens in P25 and CP4. The differences between P25 and CP4 persist, however, underpinned by process differences at the diurnal and large-scales. Mean rainfall increases 17.1% in CP4 compared to 6.7% in P25 and there is greater weakening in tropical ascent and sub-tropical subsidence in CP4. These findings show the limitations of parameterized convection and demonstrate the value that explicit convection simulations can provide to climate modellers and climate policy decision makers.