The Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice, 1988–2003: Have We Passed a Tipping Point?

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4879-4894 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Lindsay ◽  
J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
First Year ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Cooling Period ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract Recent observations of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era show that record or near-record lows for the ice extent occurred in the years 2002–05. To determine the physical processes contributing to these changes in the Arctic pack ice, model results from a regional coupled ice–ocean model have been analyzed. Since 1988 the thickness of the simulated basinwide ice thinned by 1.31 m or 43%. The thinning is greatest along the coast in the sector from the Chukchi Sea to the Beaufort Sea to Greenland. It is hypothesized that the thinning since 1988 is due to preconditioning, a trigger, and positive feedbacks: 1) the fall, winter, and spring air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have gradually increased over the last 50 yr, leading to reduced thickness of first-year ice at the start of summer; 2) a temporary shift, starting in 1989, of two principal climate indexes (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) caused a flushing of some of the older, thicker ice out of the basin and an increase in the summer open water extent; and 3) the increasing amounts of summer open water allow for increasing absorption of solar radiation, which melts the ice, warms the water, and promotes creation of thinner first-year ice, ice that often entirely melts by the end of the subsequent summer. Internal thermodynamic changes related to the positive ice–albedo feedback, not external forcing, dominate the thinning processes over the last 16 yr. This feedback continues to drive the thinning after the climate indexes return to near-normal conditions in the late 1990s. The late 1980s and early 1990s could be considered a tipping point during which the ice–ocean system began to enter a new era of thinning ice and increasing summer open water because of positive feedbacks. It remains to be seen if this era will persist or if a sustained cooling period can reverse the processes.

scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Lindsay ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
A. Schweiger ◽  
M. Steele ◽  
H. Stern
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Pacific Side ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.

scholarly journals Modeling M2 tidal variability in Arctic Sea-ice drift and deformation

2006 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 418-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.D. Hibler ◽  
A. Roberts ◽  
P. Heil ◽  
A.Y. Proshutinsky ◽  
H.L. Simmons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
Tidal Variability

AbstractSemi-diurnal oscillations are a ubiquitous feature of polar Sea-ice motion. Over much of the Arctic basin, inertial and Semi-diurnal tidal variability have Similar frequencies So that periodicity alone is inadequate to determine the Source of oscillations. We investigate the relative roles of tidal and inertial variability in Arctic Sea ice using a barotropic ice–ocean model with Sea ice embedded in an upper boundary layer. Results from this model are compared with ‘levitated’ ice–ocean coupling used in many models. In levitated models the mechanical buoyancy effect of Sea ice is neglected So that convergence of ice, for example, does not affect the oceanic Ekman flux. We use rotary Spectral analysis to compare Simulated and observed results. This helps to interpret the rotation Sense of Sea-ice drift and deformation at the Semi-diurnal period and is a useful discriminator between tidal and inertial effects. Results indicate that the levitated model generates an artificial inertial resonance in the presence of tidal and wind forcing, contrary to the embedded Sea-ice model. We conclude that Sea-ice mechanics can cause the rotational response of ice motion to change Sign even in the presence of Strong and opposing local tidal forcing when a physically consistent dynamic ice–ocean coupling is employed.

scholarly journals Seasonal changes in Arctic sea-ice morphology

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 171-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald K. Perovich ◽  
Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge ◽  
Walter B. Tucker
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Dynamic Forcing ◽  
Break Up

AbstractThe morphology of the Arctic sea-ice cover undergoes large changes over an annual cycle. These changes have a significant impact on the heat budget of the ice cover, primarily by affecting the distribution of the solar radiation absorbed in the ice-ocean system. In spring, the ice is snow-covered and ridges are the prominent features. The pack consists of large angular floes, with a small amount of open water contained primarily in linear leads. By the end of summer the ice cover has undergone a major transformation. The snow cover is gone, many of the ridges have been reduced to hummocks and the ice surface is mottled with melt ponds. One surface characteristic that changes little during the summer is the appearance of the bare ice, which remains white despite significant melting. The large floes have broken into a mosaic of smaller, rounded floes surrounded by a lace of open water. Interestingly, this break-up occurs during summer when the dynamic forcing and the internal ice stress are small During the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field experiment we had an opportunity to observe the break-up process both on a small scale from the ice surface, and on a larger scale via aerial photographs. Floe break-up resulted in large part from thermal deterioration of the ice. The large floes of spring are riddled with cracks and leads that formed and froze during fall, winter and spring. These features melt open during summer, weakening the ice so that modest dynamic forcing can break apart the large floes into many fragments. Associated with this break-up is an increase in the number of floes, a decrease in the size of floes, an increase in floe perimeter and an increase in the area of open water.

scholarly journals North Atlantic warming and declining volume of arctic sea ice

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Alexeev ◽  
V. V. Ivanov ◽  
R. Kwok ◽  
L. H. Smedsrud
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
First Year ◽  
Pacific Water ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. Long-term thinning of arctic sea ice over the last few decades has resulted in significant declines in the coverage of thick multi-year ice accompanied by a proportional increase in thinner first-year ice. This change is often attributed to changes in the arctic atmosphere, both in composition and large-scale circulation, and greater inflow of warmer Pacific water through the Bering Strait. The Atlantic Water (AW) entering the Arctic through Fram Strait has often been considered less important because of strong stratification in the Arctic Ocean and the deeper location of AW compared to Pacific water. In our combined examination of oceanographic measurements and satellite observations of ice concentration and thickness, we find evidence that AW has a direct impact on the thinning of arctic sea ice downstream of Svalbard Archipelago. The affected area extends as far as Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago. The imprints of AW appear as local minima in sea ice thickness; ice thickness is significantly less than that expected of first-year ice. Our lower-end conservative estimates indicate that the recent AW warming episode could have contributed up to 150–200 km3 of sea ice melt per year, which would constitute about 20% of the total 900 km3yr−1 negative trend in sea ice volume since 2004.

scholarly journals Regional melt-pond fraction and albedo of thin Arctic first-year drift ice in late summer

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Divine ◽  
M. A. Granskog ◽  
S. R. Hudson ◽  
C. A. Pedersen ◽  
T. I. Karlsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
First Year ◽  
Surface Type ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
Melt Ponds

Abstract. The paper presents a case study of the regional (≈150 km) morphological and optical properties of a relatively thin, 70–90 cm modal thickness, first-year Arctic sea ice pack in an advanced stage of melt. The study combines in situ broadband albedo measurements representative of the four main surface types (bare ice, dark melt ponds, bright melt ponds and open water) and images acquired by a helicopter-borne camera system during ice-survey flights. The data were collected during the 8-day ICE12 drift experiment carried out by the Norwegian Polar Institute in the Arctic, north of Svalbard at 82.3° N, from 26 July to 3 August 2012. A set of > 10 000 classified images covering about 28 km2 revealed a homogeneous melt across the study area with melt-pond coverage of ≈ 0.29 and open-water fraction of ≈ 0.11. A decrease in pond fractions observed in the 30 km marginal ice zone (MIZ) occurred in parallel with an increase in open-water coverage. The moving block bootstrap technique applied to sequences of classified sea-ice images and albedo of the four surface types yielded a regional albedo estimate of 0.37 (0.35; 0.40) and regional sea-ice albedo of 0.44 (0.42; 0.46). Random sampling from the set of classified images allowed assessment of the aggregate scale of at least 0.7 km2 for the study area. For the current setup configuration it implies a minimum set of 300 images to process in order to gain adequate statistics on the state of the ice cover. Variance analysis also emphasized the importance of longer series of in situ albedo measurements conducted for each surface type when performing regional upscaling. The uncertainty in the mean estimates of surface type albedo from in situ measurements contributed up to 95% of the variance of the estimated regional albedo, with the remaining variance resulting from the spatial inhomogeneity of sea-ice cover.

Sea ice representation in CMIP6 simulations with EC-Earth3-Veg

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben Koenigk ◽  
Evelien Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
First Year ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea

<p>In this study, we compare the sea ice in ensembles of historical and future simulations with EC-Earth3-Veg to the sea ice of the NSIDC and OSA-SAF satellite data sets. The EC-Earth3-Veg Arctic sea ice extent generally matches well to the observational data sets, and the trend over 1980-2014 is captured correctly. Interestingly, the summer Arctic sea ice area minimum occurs already in August in the model. Mainly east of Greenland, sea ice area is overestimated. In summer, Arctic sea ice is too thick compared to PIOMAS. In March, sea ice thickness is slightly overestimated in the Central Arctic but in the Bering and Kara Seas, the ice thickness is lower than in PIOMAS.</p><p>While the general picture of Arctic sea ice looks good, EC-Earth suffers from a warm bias in the Southern Ocean. This is also reflected by a substantial underestimation of sea ice area in the Antarctic.</p><p>Different ensemble members of the future scenario projections of sea ice show a large range of the date of first year with a minimum ice area below 1 million square kilometers in the Arctic. The year varies between 2024 and 2056. Interestingly, this range does not differ very much with the emission scenario and even under the low emission scenario SSP1-1.9 summer Arctic sea ice almost totally disappears.</p>

scholarly journals Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Williamson ◽  
Sebastian Bathiany ◽  
Timothy M. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
System Response ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Early Warning Signals ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The prospect of finding generic early warning signals of an approaching tipping point in a complex system has generated much interest recently. Existing methods are predicated on a separation of timescales between the system studied and its forcing. However, many systems, including several candidate tipping elements in the climate system, are forced periodically at a timescale comparable to their internal dynamics. Here we use alternative early warning signals of tipping points due to local bifurcations in systems subjected to periodic forcing whose timescale is similar to the period of the forcing. These systems are not in, or close to, a fixed point. Instead their steady state is described by a periodic attractor. For these systems, phase lag and amplification of the system response can provide early warning signals, based on a linear dynamics approximation. Furthermore, the Fourier spectrum of the system's time series reveals harmonics of the forcing period in the system response whose amplitude is related to how nonlinear the system's response is becoming with nonlinear effects becoming more prominent closer to a bifurcation. We apply these indicators as well as a return map analysis to a simple conceptual system and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice area, the latter conjectured to have a bifurcation type tipping point. We find no detectable signal of the Arctic sea ice approaching a local bifurcation.

scholarly journals Influence of stochastic sea ice parametrization on climate and the role of atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interaction

2014 ◽  
Vol 372 (2018) ◽  
pp. 20130283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
Thomas Jung
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Climate

The influence of a stochastic sea ice strength parametrization on the mean climate is investigated in a coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model. The results are compared with an uncoupled simulation with a prescribed atmosphere. It is found that the stochastic sea ice parametrization causes an effective weakening of the sea ice. In the uncoupled model this leads to an Arctic sea ice volume increase of about 10–20% after an accumulation period of approximately 20–30 years. In the coupled model, no such increase is found. Rather, the stochastic perturbations lead to a spatial redistribution of the Arctic sea ice thickness field. A mechanism involving a slightly negative atmospheric feedback is proposed that can explain the different responses in the coupled and uncoupled system. Changes in integrated Antarctic sea ice quantities caused by the stochastic parametrization are generally small, as memory is lost during the melting season because of an almost complete loss of sea ice. However, stochastic sea ice perturbations affect regional sea ice characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere, both in the uncoupled and coupled model. Remote impacts of the stochastic sea ice parametrization on the mean climate of non-polar regions were found to be small.

scholarly journals Inorganic carbon dynamics of melt pond-covered first year sea ice in the Canadian Arctic

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 7485-7519 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.-X. Geilfus ◽  
R. J. Galley ◽  
O. Crabeck ◽  
T. Papakyriakou ◽  
J. Landy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
First Year ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
Melt Ponds ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Melt Water

Abstract. Melt pond formation is a common feature of the spring and summer Arctic sea ice. However, the role of the melt ponds formation and the impact of the sea ice melt on both the direction and size of CO2 flux between air and sea is still unknown. Here we describe the CO2-carbonate chemistry of melting sea ice, melt ponds and the underlying seawater associated with measurement of CO2 fluxes across first year landfast sea ice in the Resolute Passage, Nunavut, in June 2012. Early in the melt season, the increase of the ice temperature and the subsequent decrease of the bulk ice salinity promote a strong decrease of the total alkalinity (TA), total dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2) and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) within the bulk sea ice and the brine. Later on, melt pond formation affects both the bulk sea ice and the brine system. As melt ponds are formed from melted snow the in situ melt pond pCO2 is low (36 μatm). The percolation of this low pCO2 melt water into the sea ice matrix dilutes the brine resulting in a strong decrease of the in situ brine pCO2 (to 20 μatm). As melt ponds reach equilibrium with the atmosphere, their in situ pCO2 increase (up to 380 μatm) and the percolation of this high concentration pCO2 melt water increase the in situ brine pCO2 within the sea ice matrix. The low in situ pCO2 observed in brine and melt ponds results in CO2 fluxes of −0.04 to −5.4 mmol m–2 d–1. As melt ponds reach equilibrium with the atmosphere, the uptake becomes less significant. However, since melt ponds are continuously supplied by melt water their in situ pCO2 still remains low, promoting a continuous but moderate uptake of CO2 (~ −1mmol m–2 d–1). The potential uptake of atmospheric CO2 by melting sea ice during the Arctic summer has been estimated from 7 to 16 Tg of C ignoring the role of melt ponds. This additional uptake of CO2 associated to Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored and considered in the estimation of the Arctic Ocean's overall CO2 budget.

scholarly journals Seasonal cycle and long-term trend of solar energy fluxes through Arctic sea ice

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 2219-2233 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Arndt ◽  
M. Nicolaus
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Light Transmittance ◽  
First Year ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Solar Heat ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. Arctic sea ice has not only decreased in volume during the last decades, but has also changed in its physical properties towards a thinner and more seasonal ice cover. These changes strongly impact the energy budget, and might affect the ice-associated ecosystems. In this study, we quantify solar shortwave fluxes through sea ice for the entire Arctic during all seasons. To focus on sea-ice-related processes, we exclude fluxes through open water, scaling linearly with sea ice concentration. We present a new parameterization of light transmittance through sea ice for all seasons as a function of variable sea ice properties. The maximum monthly mean solar heat flux under the ice of 30 × 105 Jm−2 occurs in June, enough heat to melt 0.3 m of sea ice. Furthermore, our results suggest that 96% of the annual solar heat input through sea ice occurs during only a 4-month period from May to August. Applying the new parameterization to remote sensing and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2011, we find an increase in transmitted light of 1.5% yr−1 for all regions. This corresponds to an increase in potential sea ice bottom melt of 63% over the 33-year study period. Sensitivity studies reveal that the results depend strongly on the timing of melt onset and the correct classification of ice types. Assuming 2 weeks earlier melt onset, the annual transmitted solar radiation to the upper ocean increases by 20%. Continuing the observed transition from a mixed multi-year/first-year sea ice cover to a seasonal ice cover results in an increase in light transmittance by an additional 18%.

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