scholarly journals An Objective Analysis of Tornado Risk in the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 366-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Coleman ◽  
P. Grady Dixon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Objective Analysis ◽  
Damage Indicators ◽  
Density Analysis ◽  
Kernel Density Analysis ◽  
Reporting Frequency

Abstract In this paper, an objective analysis of spatial tornado risk in the United States is performed, using a somewhat different dataset than in some previous tornado climatologies. The focus is on significant tornadoes because their reporting frequency has remained fairly stable for several decades. Also, data before 1973 are excluded, since those tornadoes were rated after the fact and were often overrated. Tornado pathlength within the vicinity of a grid point is used to show tornado risk, as opposed to tornado days or the total number of reported tornadoes. The possibility that many tornadoes in the Great Plains were underrated due to the lack of damage indicators, causing a low bias in the number of significant tornadoes there, is mostly discounted through several analyses. The kernel density analysis of 1973–2011 significant tornadoes performed herein shows that the area of highest risk for tornadoes in the United States extends roughly from Oklahoma to Tennessee and northwestern Georgia, with the highest risk in the southeastern United States, from central Arkansas across most of Mississippi and northern Alabama.

scholarly journals Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1509-1528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Bryan T. Smith ◽  
Jeremy S. Grams ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Joseph C. Picca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Damage Indicators ◽  
Tornado Damage

Abstract Previous work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational velocity increases. This work expands on previous studies by including reported tornadoes from 2014 to 2015, as well as a robust sample of nontornadic severe thunderstorms [≥1-in.- (2.54 cm) diameter hail, thunderstorm wind gusts ≥ 50 kt (25 m s−1), or reported wind damage] with low-level cyclonic rotation. The addition of the nontornadic sample allows the computation of tornado damage rating probabilities across a spectrum of organized severe thunderstorms represented by right-moving supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. Dual-polarization variables are used to ensure proper use of velocity data in the identification of tornadic and nontornadic cases. Tornado damage rating probabilities increase as low-level rotational velocity Vrot increases and circulation diameter decreases. The influence of height above radar level (or range from radar) is less obvious, with a muted tendency for tornado damage rating probabilities to increase as rotation (of the same Vrot magnitude) is observed closer to the ground. Consistent with previous work on gate-to-gate shear signatures such as the tornadic vortex signature, easily identifiable rotation poses a greater tornado risk compared to more nebulous areas of cyclonic azimuthal shear. Additionally, tornado probability distributions vary substantially (for similar sample sizes) when comparing the southeast United States, which has a high density of damage indicators, to the Great Plains, where damage indicators are more sparse.

Hunting the eagle killer: A cyanobacterial neurotoxin causes vacuolar myelinopathy

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 371 (6536) ◽  
pp. eaax9050
Author(s):  
Steffen Breinlinger ◽  
Tabitha J. Phillips ◽  
Brigette N. Haram ◽  
Jan Mareš ◽  
José A. Martínez Yerena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Aquatic Vegetation ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Hydrilla Verticillata ◽  
Toxin Production ◽  
The United States ◽  
Biosynthetic Gene Cluster ◽  
Biosynthetic Gene ◽  
Bald Eagles ◽  
Cyanobacterial Species

Vacuolar myelinopathy is a fatal neurological disease that was initially discovered during a mysterious mass mortality of bald eagles in Arkansas in the United States. The cause of this wildlife disease has eluded scientists for decades while its occurrence has continued to spread throughout freshwater reservoirs in the southeastern United States. Recent studies have demonstrated that vacuolar myelinopathy is induced by consumption of the epiphytic cyanobacterial species Aetokthonos hydrillicola growing on aquatic vegetation, primarily the invasive Hydrilla verticillata. Here, we describe the identification, biosynthetic gene cluster, and biological activity of aetokthonotoxin, a pentabrominated biindole alkaloid that is produced by the cyanobacterium A. hydrillicola. We identify this cyanobacterial neurotoxin as the causal agent of vacuolar myelinopathy and discuss environmental factors—especially bromide availability—that promote toxin production.

Evidence of enhanced precipitation due to irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 115 (D15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony DeAngelis ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Ying Fan ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
M. Deniz Kustu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
The United States

scholarly journals Spatial Disparities of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities in United States Counties

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8259
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Jackson ◽  
Sahar Derakhshan ◽  
Leah Blackwood ◽  
Logan Lee ◽  
Qian Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Year ◽  
Significant Case ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Trends ◽  
Mitigation Policies

This paper examines the spatial and temporal trends in county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States during the first year of the pandemic (January 2020–January 2021). Statistical and geospatial analyses highlight greater impacts in the Great Plains, Southwestern and Southern regions based on cases and fatalities per 100,000 population. Significant case and fatality spatial clusters were most prevalent between November 2020 and January 2021. Distinct urban–rural differences in COVID-19 experiences uncovered higher rural cases and fatalities per 100,000 population and fewer government mitigation actions enacted in rural counties. High levels of social vulnerability and the absence of mitigation policies were significantly associated with higher fatalities, while existing community resilience had more influential spatial explanatory power. Using differences in percentage unemployment changes between 2019 and 2020 as a proxy for pre-emergent recovery revealed urban counties were hit harder in the early months of the pandemic, corresponding with imposed government mitigation policies. This longitudinal, place-based study confirms some early urban–rural patterns initially observed in the pandemic, as well as the disparate COVID-19 experiences among socially vulnerable populations. The results are critical in identifying geographic disparities in COVID-19 exposures and outcomes and providing the evidentiary basis for targeting pandemic recovery.

scholarly journals Physiologic Specialization of Puccinia triticina on Wheat in the United States in 2013

Plant Disease ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 99 (9) ◽  
pp. 1261-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Kolmer ◽  
M. E. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Leaf Rust ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Puccinia Triticina ◽  
The United States ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio Valley ◽  
Red Winter Wheat

Collections of Puccinia triticina were obtained from rust-infected leaves provided by cooperators throughout the United States and from wheat fields and breeding plots by USDA-ARS personnel and cooperators in the Great Plains, Ohio River Valley, and southeastern states in order to determine the virulence of the wheat leaf rust population in 2013. Single uredinial isolates (490 total) were derived from the collections and tested for virulence phenotype on 20 lines of Thatcher wheat that are near-isogenic for leaf rust resistance genes. In 2013, 79 virulence phenotypes were described in the United States. Virulence phenotypes MBTNB, TNBGJ, and MCTNB were the three most common phenotypes. Phenotypes MBTNB and MCTNB are both virulent to Lr11, and MCTNB is virulent to Lr26. MBTNB and MCTNB were most common in the soft red winter wheat region of the southeastern states and Ohio Valley. Phenotype TNBGJ is virulent to Lr39/41 and was widely distributed throughout the hard red winter wheat region of the Great Plains. Isolates with virulence to Lr11, Lr18, and Lr26 were common in the southeastern states and Ohio Valley region. Isolates with virulence to Lr21, Lr24, and Lr39/41 were frequent in the hard red wheat region of the southern and northern Great Plains.

scholarly journals Physiologic Specialization of Puccinia triticina on Wheat in the United States in 2005

Plant Disease ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 91 (8) ◽  
pp. 979-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Kolmer ◽  
D. L. Long ◽  
M. E. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Leaf Rust ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Durable Resistance ◽  
Puccinia Triticina ◽  
Leaf Rust Resistance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Virulence Phenotype ◽  
Common Phenotype

Collections of Puccinia triticina were obtained from rust-infected wheat leaves by cooperators throughout the United States and from surveys of wheat fields and nurseries in the Great Plains, Ohio River Valley, southeast, California, and Washington State, in order to determine the virulence of the wheat leaf rust population in 2005. Single uredinial isolates (797 in total) were derived from the collections and tested for virulence phenotype on lines of Thatcher wheat that are near-isogenic for leaf rust resistance genes Lr1, Lr2a, Lr2c, Lr3a, Lr9, Lr16, Lr24, Lr26, Lr3ka, Lr11, Lr17a, Lr30, LrB, Lr10, Lr14a, Lr18, Lr21, Lr28, and winter wheat lines with genes Lr41 and Lr42. In the United States in 2005, 72 virulence phenotypes of P. triticina were found. Virulence phenotype TDBGH, selected by virulence to resistance gene Lr24, was the most common phenotype in the United States, and was found throughout the Great Plains region. Virulence phenotype MCDSB with virulence to Lr17a and Lr26 was the second most common phenotype and was found widely in the wheat growing regions of the United States. Virulence phenotype MFPSC, which has virulence to Lr17a, Lr24, and Lr26, was the third most common phenotype, and was found in the Ohio Valley region, the Great Plains, and California. The highly diverse population of P. triticina in the United States will continue to present a challenge for the development of wheat cultivars with effective durable resistance to leaf rust.

scholarly journals Near-Storm Environments of Outbreak and Isolated Tornadoes

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1397-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey ◽  
Yvette P. Richardson ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Bryan T. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Geographical Region ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Specific Shape ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

Abstract Between 2003 and 2015, there were 5343 outbreak tornadoes and 9389 isolated tornadoes reported in the continental United States. Here, the near-storm environmental parameter-space distributions of these two categories are compared via kernel density estimation, and the seasonal, diurnal, and geographical features of near-storm environments of these two sets of events are compared via self-organizing maps (SOMs). Outbreak tornadoes in a given geographical region tend to be characterized by greater 0–1-km storm-relative helicity and 0–6-km vector shear magnitude than isolated tornadoes in the same geographical region and also have considerably higher tornado warning-based probability of detection (POD) than isolated tornadoes. A SOM of isolated tornadoes highlights that isolated tornadoes with higher POD also tend to feature higher values of the significant tornado parameter (STP), regardless of the specific shape of the area of STP. For a SOM of outbreak tornadoes, when two outbreak environments with similarly high magnitudes but different patterns of STP are compared, the difference is primarily geographical, with one environment dominated by Great Plains and Midwest outbreaks and another dominated by outbreaks in the southeastern United States. Two specific tornado outbreaks are featured, and the events are placed into their climatological context with more nuance than typical single proximity sounding-based approaches would allow.

scholarly journals Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8339-8365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funing Li ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Daniel T. Dawson II
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Bias

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

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