scholarly journals A Kilometer-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Wave Forecasting System for the European Arctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin E. Thomas ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Patrik Bohlinger ◽  
Yurii Batrak ◽  
Nicholas Szapiro
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
European Arctic

AbstractAccurately simulating the interactions between the components of a coupled Earth modelling system (atmosphere, sea-ice, and wave) on a kilometer-scale resolution is a new challenge in operational numerical weather prediction. It is difficult due to the complexity of interactive mechanisms, the limited accuracy of model components and scarcity of observations available for assessing relevant coupled processes. This study presents a newly developed convective-scale atmosphere-wave coupled forecasting system for the European Arctic. The HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system is coupled to the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III using the OASIS3 model coupling toolkit. We analyze the impact of representing the kilometer-scale atmosphere-wave interactions through coupled and uncoupled forecasts on a model domain with 2.5 km spatial resolution. In order to assess the coupled model’s accuracy and uncertainties we compare 48-hour model forecasts against satellite observational products such as Advanced Scatterometer 10 m wind speed, and altimeter based significant wave height. The fully coupled atmosphere-wave model results closely match both satellite-based wind speed and significant wave height observations as well as surface pressure and wind speed measurements from selected coastal station observation sites. Furthermore, the coupled model contains smaller standard deviation of errors in both 10m wind speed and significant wave height parameters when compared to the uncoupled model forecasts. Atmosphere and wave coupling reduces the short term forecast error variability of 10 m wind speed and significant wave height with the greatest benefit occurring for high wind and wave conditions.

Uncertainty of Ocean Wave Hindcasts Due to Wind Modeling

1995 ◽  
Vol 117 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Teixeira ◽  
M. P. Abreu ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wind Input

Two wind models were developed and their results were compared with data gathered during the Wangara experiment, so as to characterize their uncertainty. One of the models was adopted to generate the wind fields used as input to a second generation wave model. The relative error in the wind speed was considered in order to assess the uncertainties of the predictions or the significant wave height. Different time steps for the wind input were also used to determine their effect on the predicted significant wave height.

scholarly journals The Wave Climate of the Southern Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
pp. 1417-1433
Author(s):  
Ian R. Young ◽  
Emmanuel Fontaine ◽  
Qingxiang Liu ◽  
Alexander V. Babanin
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Individual Wave

AbstractThe wave climate of the Southern Ocean is investigated using a combined dataset from 33 years of altimeter data, in situ buoy measurements at five locations, and numerical wave model hindcasts. The analysis defines the seasonal variation in wind speed and significant wave height, as well as wind speed and significant wave height for a 1-in-100-year return period. The buoy data include an individual wave with a trough to crest height of 26.4 m and suggest that waves in excess of 30 m would occur in the region. The extremely long fetches, persistent westerly winds, and procession of low pressure systems that traverse the region generate wave spectra that are unique. These spectra are unimodal but with peak frequencies that propagate much faster than the local wind. This situation results in a unique energy balance in which waves at the spectra peak grow as a result of nonlinear transfer without any input from the local wind.

Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2035-2045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James A. Hansen ◽  
Paul A. Wittmann ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Andrea Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wave ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
Ocean Surface Wave

Abstract Development of a 12-ft-seas significant wave height ensemble consistent with the official tropical cyclone intensity, track, and wind structure forecasts and their errors from the operational U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers is described. To generate the significant wave height ensemble, a Monte Carlo wind speed probability algorithm that produces forecast ensemble members is used. These forecast ensemble members, each created from the official forecast and randomly sampled errors from historical official forecast errors, are then created immediately after the official forecast is completed. Of 1000 forecast ensemble members produced by the wind speed algorithm, 128 of them are selected and processed to produce wind input for an ocean surface wave model. The wave model is then run once per realization to produce 128 possible forecasts of significant wave height. Probabilities of significant wave height at critical thresholds can then be computed from the ocean surface wave model–generated significant wave heights. Evaluations of the ensemble are provided in terms of maximum significant wave height and radius of 12-ft significant wave height—two parameters of interest to both U.S. Navy meteorologists and U.S. Navy operators. Ensemble mean errors and biases of maximum significant wave height and radius of 12-ft significant wave height are found to be similar to those of a deterministic version of the same algorithm. Ensemble spreads capture most verifying maximum and radii of 12-ft significant wave heights.

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (14-15) ◽  
pp. 1841-1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Roulston ◽  
Jerome Ellepola ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Effect of Uni- and Bi-Directional Coupling of Ocean-Met Interaction on Significant Wave Height and Local Wind

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adil Rasheed ◽  
Jakob Kristoffer Süld ◽  
Mandar Tabib
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Bidirectional Coupling

Accurate prediction of near surface wind and wave height are important for many offshore activities like fishing, boating, surfing, installation and maintenance of marine structures. The current work investigates the use of different methodologies to make accurate predictions of significant wave height and local wind. The methodology consists of coupling an atmospheric code HARMONIE and a wave model WAM. Two different kinds of coupling methodologies: unidirectional and bidirectional coupling are tested. While in Unidirectional coupling only the effects of atmosphere on ocean surface are taken into account, in bidirectional coupling the effects of ocean surface on the atmosphere are also accounted for. The predicted values of wave height and local wind at 10m above the ocean surface using both the methodologies are compared against observation data. The results show that during windy conditions, a bidirectional coupling methodology has better prediction capability.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document