Civilian targeting in African conflicts: A poor actor’s game that spreads through space

Armed conflict actors frequently target civilian populations. Thus, an improved understanding of such behaviour could pave the way to reducing it. We use the Civilian Targeting Index (CTI) and a broad array of geo-referenced data to investigate the spatio-temporal and economic dynamics of civilian targeting by conflict actors in Africa. Two main insights are generated. First, the civilian targeting behaviour of African non-state conflict actors is strongly influenced by the behaviour of other proximate actors. In particular, non-state actors tend to increase their civilian targeting after nearby non-state actors have done so. Possible mechanisms to explain such spatial spillovers include emulation and retaliation. Second, a negative relationship between economic activity and civilian targeting exists and applies to both state and non-state actors. In addition, CTIs of non-state actors tend to increase with population density, the geographical spread of their conflict activity and conflict duration. State actors have higher average CTIs than non-state actors do, but the gap between the two actor types tends to close during long-duration conflicts.

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Ancient colonialism and the economic geography of the Mediterranean

Journal of Economic Geography ◽

10.1093/jeg/lbaa028 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Dimitris K Chronopoulos ◽

Sotiris Kampanelis ◽

Daniel Oto-Peralías ◽

John O S Wilson

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Economic Geography ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Historical Data ◽

Urban System ◽

Current Data ◽

Origin And Evolution ◽

System Of Cities ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract This article investigates the legacy of ancient Phoenician, Greek and Etruscan colonialism in shaping the economic geography of the Mediterranean region. Utilising historical data on ancient colonies and current data on population density and night light emissions (as a proxy for economic activity), we find that geographical areas colonised by these ancient civilisations have higher population density and economic activity in the present day. We also find that ancient colonialism affected the origin and evolution of the urban system of cities and settlements prevalent in the Mediterranean region.

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THE IDEAL DISTRIBUTION OF FARMERS: EXPLAINING THE EURO-AMERICAN SETTLEMENT OF UTAH

American Antiquity ◽

10.1017/aaq.2017.46 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 83 (1) ◽

pp. 75-90 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Peter M. Yaworsky ◽

Brian F. Codding

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Ideal Free Distribution ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Coarse Grained ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Test Model ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grain ◽

Model Predictions ◽

The Ideal

Explaining how and why populations settle a new landscape is central to many questions in American archaeology. Recent advances in settlement research have adopted predictions from the Ideal Free Distribution model (IFD). While tests of IFD predictions to date rely either on archaeologically derived coarse-grained diachronic data or ethnographically derived fine-grained synchronic data, here we provide the first test using historically derived data that is both fine-grained and diachronic. Fine-grain diachronic data allow us to test model predictions at a temporal scale in line with human settlement decisions and to validate proxies for application in archaeological contexts. To test model predictions pertaining to the relationship between population density and habitat quality, we use data from the historical settlement of Utah. The results demonstrate a negative relationship between population density and the quality of habitats occupied. These results are consistent with IFD predictions, suggesting that Euro-American settlement of Utah resulted from individuals attempting to maximize individual returns via agricultural productivity. Our results provide a quantitative and testable explanation for population dispersion over time and explain the spatial distribution of population density today. The results support predictions derived from a general theory of behavior, providing an explanatory framework for colonization events worldwide.

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The COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Malaysia: Lessons Learned from the Perspective of Population Density

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18126566 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (12) ◽

pp. 6566

Author(s):

Siew Bee Aw ◽

Bor Tsong Teh ◽

Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling ◽

Pau Chung Leng ◽

Weng Howe Chan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

P Value ◽

Population Census ◽

Infection Rates ◽

Health Official ◽

Contagious Diseases ◽

Spatio Temporal

This paper attempts to ascertain the impacts of population density on the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Besides describing the spatio-temporal contagion risk of the virus, ultimately, it seeks to test the hypothesis that higher population density results in exacerbated COVID-19 virulence in the community. The population density of 143 districts in Malaysia, as per data from Malaysia’s 2010 population census, was plotted against cumulative COVID-19 cases and infection rates of COVID-19 cases, which were obtained from Malaysia’s Ministry of Health official website. The data of these three variables were collected between 19 January 2020 and 31 December 2020. Based on the observations, districts that have high population densities and are highly inter-connected with neighbouring districts, whether geographically, socio-economically, or infrastructurally, tend to experience spikes in COVID-19 cases within weeks of each other. Using a parametric approach of the Pearson correlation, population density was found to have a moderately strong relationship to cumulative COVID-19 cases (p-value of 0.000 and R2 of 0.415) and a weak relationship to COVID-19 infection rates (p-value of 0.005 and R2 of 0.047). Consequently, we provide several non-pharmaceutical lessons, including urban planning strategies, as passive containment measures that may better support disease interventions against future contagious diseases.

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Urban Growth and Demographic Dynamics in Southern Europe: Toward a New Statistical Approach to Regional Science

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10082765 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 2765 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Mariateresa Ciommi ◽

Francesco Chelli ◽

Margherita Carlucci ◽

Luca Salvati

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Population Decline ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Urban Forms ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Demographic Dynamics ◽

Steep Decline ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Linear Regression Modeling

Metropolitan growth in Europe has resulted in drastic changes of urban forms, socio-spatial structures and land-use patterns due to sequential processes of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. To assess latent shifts from mono-centric models towards more disarticulated and decentralized settlement configurations, the present study evaluates spatio-temporal patterns of growth between the 1920s and the 2010s in three Mediterranean cities with different structure and functions (Barcelona: compact and moderately polycentric; Rome: dispersed, medium-density; Athens: mono-centric, hyper-compact). To identify and characterize long-term urban transformations, an original approach was illustrated in this study, based on a multivariate analysis of 13 indicators resulting from descriptive statistics and linear regression modeling the relationship between population density and distance from inner cities. The empirical results of this study indicate that Barcelona, Rome and Athens have experienced different urbanization cycles, characterized by a (more or less) concentrated distribution of population along urban gradients. Despite similarities in demographic dynamics and planning practices, these processes have determined (i) a mostly centralized growth in Barcelona, (ii) a relatively dispersed and discontinuous spatial structure in Rome, and (iii) a steep decline of population density with the distance from downtown Athens. Compact urban expansion, population decline and urban de-concentration were finally assessed using the analytical approach proposed in this study.

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MONITORING CHANGES OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES SUPPLY AND DEMAND PATTERN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LIAONING URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS, CHINA USING LANDSAT IMAGES

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-765-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-3 ◽

pp. 765-770

Author(s):

B. Li ◽

F. Huang ◽

S. Chang ◽

H. Qi ◽

H. Zhai

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Population Density ◽

Foreign Investment ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Reference Value ◽

Landsat Images ◽

Urban Agglomerations ◽

Spatio Temporal

Indentifying the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem services supply and demand and the driving forces is of great significance to the regional ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development. Due to long term and high-intensity development, the ecological environment in central and southern Liaoning urban agglomerations has been greatly destroyed thereafter has restricted sustainable development in this region. Based on Landsat ETM and OLI images, land use of this urban agglomeration in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was extracted. The integrative index of multiple-ecosystem services (IMES) was used to quantify the supply (IMESs), demand (IMESd) and balance (IMESb) of multiple-ecosystem services, The spatial patterns of ecosystem services and its dynamics for the period of 2005&ndash;2015 were revealed. The multiple regression and stepwise regression analysis were used to explore relationships between ecosystem services and socioeconomic factors. The results showed that the IMESs of the region increased by 2.93&thinsp;%, whereas IMESd dropped 38&thinsp;%. The undersupplied area was reduced to 2. The IMESs and IMESb were mainly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), population density, foreign investment and industrial output, while GDP per capita and the number of teachers had significant positive impacts on ecosystem services supply. The positive correlation between IMESd and GDP, population density and foreign investment were found. The ecosystem services models were established. Supply and balance of multiple-ecosystem services were positively correlated with population density, but the demand was the opposite. The results can provide some reference value for the coordinately economic and ecological development in the study area.

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Culture, conflict and armed non-state actors: cultural heritage protection in a changing operating environment

Journal of Cultural Heritage Management and Sustainable Development ◽

10.1108/jchmsd-08-2020-0122 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Mark Dunkley

Keyword(s):

Cultural Heritage ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Armed Forces ◽

Cultural Property ◽

Islamic State ◽

Operating Environment ◽

Content Type ◽

State Actors ◽

Protection Of Cultural Heritage

PurposeThis paper examines the implications, for States Parties, of the 1954 Convention safeguarding regime in the context of contemporary non-international armed conflict and ANSAs, with a general focus on the Middle East and in situ cultural property.Design/methodology/approachAs the nature of conflict changes and armed forces become further engaged in supporting peacekeeping operations and deliver training to host nation security forces, and human security becomes an increasingly important function of military operations, the protection of cultural heritage (as an expression of a people's identity) becomes a significant contribution to individual operations.FindingsInternational obligations to States Parties for the in situ protection of cultural heritage, under both International Humanitarian Law and HC54, become an ever increasing important responsibility for armed forces to help deliver.Research limitations/implicationsWhile NATO is increasingly focussed on the defence of western states parties from threats posed by the Russian Federation, and observing a commercially and military assertive China, a recent report issued by the Pentagon noted that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is regrouping in Iraq faster than in Syria and could regain territory in six to twelve months in the absence of sustained military pressure.Practical implicationsPreservation in situ is used by heritage professionals to refer to the protection of a cultural heritage asset in its original location while the in situ protection of cultural property is a cornerstone topic of the 1954 Hague Convention Special Protection category. The Convention was drafted with international armed conflict in mind but the initial signatories to the Convention had sufficient foresight to consider non-international armed conflict and its potential effect on in situ cultural property by parties to the conflict, including Armed Non-State Actors (ANSA)Social implicationsUN Security Council Resolution 2449 (December 2018) recognized the negative impact of the presence, violent extremist ideology and actions on stability in Syria and the region of both Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Al-Nusrah Front (ANF). This includes not only the devastating humanitarian impact on civilian populations but also the unlawful destruction of cultural heritage.Originality/valueANSAs comprise individuals and groups that are wholly or partly independent of State governments and which threaten or use violence to achieve their goals, such as Islamic State. As such, the military operating environment has changed since 1954.

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The Plurality of Armed Non-State Actors’ Detention in Non-International Armed Conflict

10.1163/9789004470552_007 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 146-190

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

State Actors

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Force Against Non-State Actors as Armed Conflict

Extraterritorial Use of Force Against Non-State Actors ◽

10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199584840.003.0005 ◽

2010 ◽

pp. 85-111 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Noam Lubell

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

State Actors

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An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variability on the Ghanaian Stock Market: A Vector Autoregression Approach

International Finance and Banking ◽

10.5296/ifb.v3i2.9821 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 49

Author(s):

Beverly Acquah

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Price Index ◽

Vector Autoregression ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Commodity Price ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators

This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships among stock prices and selected macroeconomic indicators namely; economic activity, global commodity price index, inflation and interest rates in Ghana. By employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, the empirical results reveal that stock prices depreciate with an increase in global commodity prices and interest rates indicating a negative relationship. On the other hand, stock prices appreciate with an increase in inflation and economic activity indicating a positive relationship. Examining stock market variability on the selected macroeconomic variables also showed that inflation and interest rates respond negatively to changes in asset prices while the stock market itself is not found to be a leading indicator for economic activity. The evidence suggests that the listed equities on the GSE are a hedge against inflation in Ghana. Increasing economic activity over time is advantageous for the Ghanaian stock market.

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