Summer crowds: An analysis of USFS campground reservations during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, US public land managers faced the challenge of catering to large increases in camping demand, while maintaining social distancing guidelines. In this paper, we use multivariate linear regression to analyze weekly changes in reservations to US Forest Service (USFS) campgrounds between 2019 and 2020. The regression models estimate the impact of local COVID infection rates, public health restrictions, and spatial spillovers from proximity to National Parks (NPs), metropolitan areas and wildfire on camping demand. Our sample includes 1,688 individual USFS campgrounds from across the contiguous US. The results illustrate the dramatic increases in camping on USFS land that occurred in the summer of 2020 and demonstrate that increases in local infection rates led to significant increases in camping nights reserved in the summer. The results also illustrate that the increase in camping nights reserved at USFS campgrounds was particularly dramatic for campgrounds located near large metropolitan areas and near NPs that saw increases in overall recreational visits. These results point to the important role that public lands played during the pandemic and can help guide public land resource allocations for campground maintenance and operation.

An expanded knowledge production function

This paper uses a theoretical motivation for an Expanded Knowledge Production Function(EKPF) that encompasses both path dependence and spatial spillovers to search for evidences inBrazil using a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data approach. The purpose is to identify the determinantsof knowledge production in the 2005-2015 period as well as its temporal evolution, usinginnovation patents as proxies. Regarding its spatial distribution, we identified a North-Southdisparity for the knowledge production in Brazil, with Southeast and South producing alarge part of the country’s patents. Based on the EKPF, we confirmed the importance ofpath dependence and knowledge spillovers to explain the Brazilian innovation. In addition,population density, which generates Jacobian externalities and economies of agglomeration, isan important structural feature in the short run while the number of researchers in universitiesand an increased economic scale are essential to knowledge production in the long run.

Spatial Spillover Effects of Agricultural Transport Costs in Peru

The role of agricultural transport costs in core-periphery structures has habitually been ignored in New Economic Geography (NEG) models. This is due to the convention of treating the agricultural good as the numéraire, thus implying that agricultural transportation costs are assumed to be zero in these models. For more than three decades, this has been the standard setting in spatial equilibrium analysis. This paper examines the effects of agricultural transport costs on the spatial organisation of regional structures in Peru. In doing so, Krugman’s formulation of iceberg transport costs is modified to introduce agricultural transport costs into the dynamic of the NEG models. We use exploratory spatial flow data analysis methods and non-spatial and spatial origin-destination flow models to explore how the regional spatial structure changes when real transportation data for agricultural goods are included into the iceberg transport costs formulation. We show that agricultural transport costs generate flows that are systematically associated with flows to or from nearby regions generating thus the emergence of spatial spillovers across Peruvian regions. The results of the paper support the contention that NEG models have overshadowed the role of agricultural transport costs in determining the spatial configuration of economic activities.

Spatial Spillover Effects of Agricultural Transport Costs in Peru

The role of agricultural transport costs in core-periphery structures has habitually been ignored in New Economic Geography (NEG) models. This is due to the convention of treating the agricultural good as the numéraire, thus implying that agricultural transportation costs are assumed to be zero in these models. For more than three decades, this has been the standard setting in spatial equilibrium analysis. The paper examines the effects of agricultural transport costs on the spatial organisation of regional structures in Peru. In doing so, the Krugman’s formulation of iceberg transport costs is modified to introduce the agricultural transport costs into the dynamic of the NEG models. We use exploratory spatial flow data analysis methods and non-spatial and spatial origin-destination flow models to explore how the regional spatial structure change when real transportation data for agricultural goods is included into the iceberg transport costs formulation. We show that agricultural transport costs generate flows that are systematically associated with flows to or from nearby regions generating thus the emergence of spatial spillovers across Peruvian regions. The results of the paper support the contention that NEG models have overshadowed the role of agricultural transport costs in determining the spatial configuration of economic activities.

Spatial and Time Spillovers of Driving Restrictions: Causal Evidence from Limas Pico y Placa Policy

Driving restrictions are popular interventions in rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Their relatively inexpensive implementation appeals to the pressing need to reduce traffic congestion and pollution. Their effectiveness however, remains contested. Using high frequency data from the community-based driving directions app Waze, we evaluate the causal effect on traffic congestion of Lima's Pico y Placa driving restriction policy introduced in 2019. We find small improvements in traffic congestion for the policy's directly targeted areas. However, those improvements are offset by time and spatial spillovers in the opposite direction in the aggregate. Speed improved by 2 percent during the early weeks of the intervention, but this effect disappeared 16 weeks after the start of the policy. Moreover, traffic conditions worsened in adjacent areas and in hours outside the time schedule of the policy. In the aggregate, accounting for time and spatial spillovers, a simulation exercise suggests that overall welfare declined by 2 percent, mostly driven by the extensive margin (more roads becoming congested) outside the direct areas and hours targeted by the policy. The policy seems not only to have failed to achieve its intended benefits in terms of congestion, but also probably caused increases in traffic-related pollution. These results highlight the need for policy makers to take into account the overall impacts of driving restrictions policies before implementing them.

The environmental Kuznets curve for Turkish provinces: a spatial panel data approach

This paper aims to test the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis using SO2 measurements in Turkish provinces between 2004 and 2019. The existing studies concerning the EKC hypothesis for Turkey either use a country-level analysis or panel data techniques covering provincial data that do not account for the spatial dimension. To account for the spatial dependence and overcome the biases resulting from the existence of such spatial spillovers, this paper combines the traditional panel data methodology with the recent advances in spatial econometrics. Our findings confirm the presence of a non-linear link between regional economic prospects and environmental degradation. However, unlike the core expectations of the EKC hypothesis, our results demonstrate a U-shaped relationship between economic development and SO2 levels. Moreover, these findings are robust to the inclusion of a spatial battery which highlights the existence of regional spillovers. Overall, our results show that the post-2000 epoch calls for a different action plan to mitigate the rising impact of environmental degradation in Turkey.

Minimum wages, youth employment and spatial spillovers: New evidence for Spain

The effect of minimum wages increases on youth employment level has been extensively analysed, but recent contributions have highlighted the potential bias in these studies due to neglected spatial autocorrelation in the considered relationship. This paper contributes to this scarce literature by providing novel evidence for a country with very low interregional mobility. The aim is to see if the bias of neglecting spatial dependence acts in a similar direction than in the few studies for the United States and if this bias explains the low elasticity of youth employment to minimum wages in Spain compared to the international literature. Our results show the relevance of spatial spillovers in the Spanish regional labour markets, but after correcting for the bias, we do not find a significant negative elasticity of youth employment to minimum wages, with the only exception of those between 16 and 19 years old.

Investigating the role of spatial spillovers as determinants of land conversion in urbanizing Canada

Although the impacts of income, population growth, and other important determinants of land-use change have been widely studied, there is less understanding of how spatial spillovers matter. Utilizing a spatial econometric approach, we investigate the main determinants of natural landscape conversion, focusing on quantifying local and global spatial spillovers. The empirical investigation applies to the Edmonton Metropolitan Region and the Calgary Regional Partnership in Canada. Key results include: (1) determinants of land conversion have significant spillover effects; (2) income, population density, road density, natural land endowment and land suitability for agriculture are all found to have influences on natural land conversion both in the own and neighboring areas; and (3) local (i.e., within the immediate neighboring areas) and global (in the entire study region) spillovers are different in strength and direction. Our work provides useful information for understanding the spillover issues in land conservation, resource governance, and optimal conservation design.