Female fighters and the fates of rebellions: How mobilizing women influences conflict duration

We investigate the potential relationship between female combatants and conflict duration. We contend that recruiting female combatants extends war duration via its influence on state–rebel bargaining. The recruitment and deployment of female combatants contribute to divergent perspectives between the rebels and the incumbent regarding the rebel group’s capabilities and the depth of its resolve, which impedes successful bargaining and extends the duration of the conflict. Results from duration analyses using data on the estimated prevalence of female combatants in rebel groups active between 1964 and 2011 support our central hypothesis and suggest that the use of female fighters is associated with longer conflicts.

Dynamic plurilateral information conflict model with different participant strategies

Problem setting. The development of the information theory conflicts is connected with the need to form new models that take into account new factors and features of real actions of conflicting parties in the information area. Currently, a fairly developed scientific and methodological apparatus for study of information conflict are models in the formalism of the Markov theory processes and game theory. At the same time, models based on dynamic systems are not sufficiently developed, and dynamic models of multilateral conflicts are not available in well-known publications.Target. The purpose of the work is to form a dynamic plurilateral information conflict model with different participant strategies.Results. The research results in a dynamic plurilateral information conflict model with different participant strategies. The elements of the model scientific novelty are: the conflict formalization in the form of differential equations system, which are based on the original modification of the Lotki-Voltera model equations; nine strategies for action by parties to a multilateral conflict with varying degrees of conflict; each strategy formalization in the form of coefficients or complex functions with the modeling possibility of their application and change in duel conflicts between each pair of sides.Practical significance. The model presented using in the article allows: to study the dynamic of changes in the conflict parties resources; identify local wins and losses in transition mode; to make conclusions about global wins and losses of the parties over the conflict duration; to make recommendations about party-specific strategies choice and parameters of their strategies usefulness for achieving global wins. These studies may be useful to those skilled special purpose information systems field, electronic warfare or information warfare.

Interstate rivals’ intervention in third-party civil wars: The comparative case of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen (2004-2018)

How does interstate rivals’ intervention in a third-party civil war impact conflict duration and outcome in that country? More specifically, (1) how do interstate rivals engage in third party civil conflicts and (2) how do conflict parties attract, utilize, and sustain the external support they receive from their supporters? I answer these questions by comparing Saudi Arabia and Iran’s intervention in two distinct conflicts in Yemen. This dissertation applies a qualitative case study method and selects two within-case methods: structured-focused comparison and process tracing. In the structured-focused comparison, I compare the support Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided to the Government of Yemen (GoY) and the Houthis respectively, differentiating between military and non-military types of support. I compare these during the Saada wars (2004-2010) and in the current internationalized civil war (2014-2018). To ensure the validity of my causal inferences I triangulate data from three sources: the development of a novel mediation and ceasefire dataset1 (1), semi-structured in-depth elite-interviews2 (2), and document reviews (3). This dissertation develops a mechanism-focused analytical framework that integrates both rivalry and civil war dynamics to explain civil war duration and outcome. I build on five distinct literatures (strategic rivalry, civil war studies, third-party intervention in civil wars, mediation, and rebel governance) and complement them with the literature on Middle East Area Studies. In the analytical framework first, I look at the inter-state dimension and propose that rivals’ initial decision to intervene and their subsequent decisions to remain engaged in third-party civil wars are two distinct processes. Rivals seek to inflict costs on their counterparts, but at the same time they seek to avoid direct confrontation. Their cognitive rigidities lock them in their own conflicts and give rise to the mechanism of conflict integration in third-party conflicts. Besides interveners, I also take into account domestic dynamics and examine civil war conflict parties’ capacity to impact rivals by keeping them engaged in their conflict through the mechanism of rivalry instrumentalization. The external and internal perspectives are reinforcing each other and create networked interdependencies. With this two-dimensional logic, I move beyond the conventional framework of proxy wars.

Thinking outside the (temporal) box to explain protracted intrastate conflict

Conflict duration has been one of the central and enduring questions driving civil war literature. Still not enough attention has been given to the interdependency of conflict duration dynamics. In an effort to bridge the gap this study introduces a new variable that positions conflict duration as a function of the duration of the pre-conflict phase. I argue proto-insurgents are able to protract conflict due to good choices made before large-scale conflict erupted – or during a period of time called ‘incubation’. After controlling for standard explanations, this study offers statistical evidence that proto-insurgent incubation duration is statistically significant and positively related to conflict duration. This study further explores the usefulness of thinking outside of the standard temporal space of wartime by moving beyond the widely accepted assumption that insurgents are empowered and constrained primarily by wartime decisionmaking and the wartime environment in which they find themselves.

Civilian targeting in African conflicts: A poor actor’s game that spreads through space

Armed conflict actors frequently target civilian populations. Thus, an improved understanding of such behaviour could pave the way to reducing it. We use the Civilian Targeting Index (CTI) and a broad array of geo-referenced data to investigate the spatio-temporal and economic dynamics of civilian targeting by conflict actors in Africa. Two main insights are generated. First, the civilian targeting behaviour of African non-state conflict actors is strongly influenced by the behaviour of other proximate actors. In particular, non-state actors tend to increase their civilian targeting after nearby non-state actors have done so. Possible mechanisms to explain such spatial spillovers include emulation and retaliation. Second, a negative relationship between economic activity and civilian targeting exists and applies to both state and non-state actors. In addition, CTIs of non-state actors tend to increase with population density, the geographical spread of their conflict activity and conflict duration. State actors have higher average CTIs than non-state actors do, but the gap between the two actor types tends to close during long-duration conflicts.

Do International Interventions Prolong Civil Conflicts? The Effect of Ex Ante Expectations

Many studies have found that third-party intervention tends to prolong the duration of civil conflict. However, some studies have suggested that mere expectations of external intervention can prolong conflict duration even in the absence of actual intervention. Therefore, the effects of external interventions in prolonging the duration of civil conflicts remain unclear. This study examines the direct effect of third-party intervention on the duration of civil conflict by controlling for the indirect effect of expectations of external intervention. The probabilities of intervention were estimated, and the direct effect of interventions was tested by controlling for the effect of ex ante expectations. The empirical findings were as follows: (1) Third-party intervention has no direct effect of prolonging the duration of a conflict when expectations are controlled for, and (2) Third-party intervention may have an indirect effect of shortening conflict duration, which contradicts the findings of previous studies.

A Conflict Duration Graph-Based Coordination Method for Connected and Automated Vehicles at Signal-Free Intersections

Previous studies on Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) demonstrated the potential to coordinate the behaviors of multiple connected vehicles for traffic improvements. In this paper, we first propose a Conflict Duration Graph-based (CDG-based) coordination framework to resolve collisions and improve the traffic capacity of signal-free intersections. Secondly, a Speed Control-based Intersection Coordination Model (SICM) is developed to identify complex constraints in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. Thirdly, a geometric Translation-based Intersection Coordination Algorithm (TICA) is proposed to calculate the ideal location of time blocks in CDGs and then obtain the near-optimal design speed in the form of combinatorial optimization. Twelve groups of test scenarios with different traffic volumes were designed and tested on a MATLAB-based simulation platform. Simulation results showed that the proposed method can resolve all the collisions and instruct the vehicles to pass signal-free intersections collaboratively without stopping in low to medium level of congestion.

Biding time versus timely retreat: Asymmetric dependence, issue salience, and conflict duration

Trade-conflict studies focus on whether and how economic interdependence suppresses interstate conflict initiation. Meanwhile, formal theories of war show that conflict initiation is inherently tied to its termination. In this article, I seek to bridge the two literature by utilizing a war of attrition model to formalize the relationship between economic dependence and conflict duration. I theorize that the strategic calculation ultimately comes down to a trade-off between biding one’s time and retreating in a timely manner. In the context of economic attrition, states weigh the relative costs of suffering an additional round of economic disruption against the potential benefits of winning the disputed good. As such, economic dependence can have both coercive and informational effects and these effects are contingent upon issue salience. When the issue salience is low, the coercive effect dominates; states are more likely to quit conflicts as they suffer proportionally larger economic costs. When the issue salience is high enough, the informational effect can kick in; states are less likely to quit conflicts with increasing economic costs. I test these implications on the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data, finding strong support for the informational effect and suggestive evidence for the coercive one.

Safe RPAS integration in non-segregated airspace

Purpose This paper aims to assess the implications in safety levels by the integration of remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS). The goal is to calculate the number of RPAS that can jointly operate with conventional aircraft regarding conflict risk, without exceeding current safety levels. Design/methodology/approach This approach benchmarks a calculated level of safety (CLS) with a target level of safety (TLS). Monte Carlo (MC) simulations quantify the TLS based on the current operation of conventional aircraft. Then, different experiments calculate the CLS associated with combinations of conventional aircraft and RPAS. MC simulations are performed based on probabilistic distributions of aircraft performances, entry times and geographical distribution. The safety levels are based on a conflict risk model because the safety metrics are the average number of conflicts and average conflict duration. Findings The results provide restrictions to the number of RPAS that can jointly operate with conventional aircraft. The TLS is quantified for four conventional aircraft. MC simulations confirm that the integration of RPAS demands a reduction in the total number of aircraft. The same number of RPAS than conventional aircraft shows an increase over 90% average number of conflicts and 300% average conflict time. Research limitations/implications The methodology is applied to one flight level of en-route airspace without considering climbing or descending aircraft. Originality/value This paper is one of the most advanced investigations performed to quantify the number of RPAS that can be safely integrated into non-segregated airspace, which is one of the challenges for the forthcoming integration of RPAS. Particularly, Europe draws to allow operating RPAS and conventional aircraft in non-segregated airspace by 2025, but this demanding perspective entails a thorough analysis of operational and safety aspects involved.

Analysis of the Characteristics and Number of Bicycle–Passenger Conflicts at Bus Stops for Improving Safety

This study aimed to analyze the characteristics of bicycle–passenger conflicts at bus stops and develop a model to predict the number of conflicts accurately. This paper investigated the traffic flow operation at bus stops by video recording. Duration and distribution characteristics of bicycle–passenger conflicts were statistically analyzed. Then four types of conflicts defined based on evasive behavior (cyclist yielding as Type 1, cyclist bypassing as Type 2, passenger yielding as Type 3, and passenger bypassing as Type 4) were compared. A generalized event count (GEC) model was established for bicycle–passenger conflict estimation and analysis. The main results indicated that: (1) The average conflict duration was 1.716 s, whilst 60.9% of conflicts existed near the accesses of bus stops in longitudinal direction; (2) Type 1 conflict was significantly different from Type 2, 3, and 4 conflicts in duration, whilst the three had no significant difference; (3) the proposed GEC model showed good performance in predicting bicycle–passenger conflicts, with 15.71% of mean-absolute-percentage-error and 0.8772 of R2; and (4) bicycle volume, bus passenger volume, and passenger crossing time were critical factors impacting the number of bicycle–passenger conflicts. Finally, transport agencies may consider installing separations and crosswalks to improve the safety of the stop area.