Identifying High-risk Areas of Foot-and-mouth Disease Outbreak Using a Spatiotemporal Score Statistic: A Case of South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 477-500
Author(s):  
Son-Il Pak ◽  
Gyoungju Lee ◽  
Munsu Sin ◽  
Hyuk Park ◽  
JiYoung Park
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Score Statistic ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas

The objective of this study is to identify high-risk areas of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Korea using nationwide data collected for the disease cases that occurred during the period from December 2014 to April 2015. High-risk areas of FMD occurrence are defined as local clusters or hot spots, where the frequency of disease occurrence is higher than expected. An issue in the FMD detection study is in identifying a spatial pattern deviated significantly from the expected value under the null hypothesis that no spatial process is investigated. While identifying geographic clusters is challenging to reveal the causes of disease outbreak, it is most useful to detect and monitor potential areas of risk occurrence and suggest a further in-depth investigation. This study extended a traditional score statistic (SC) that has limited to identify the spatial pattern by proposing a spatiotemporal score statistic (STSC) that incorporates a temporal component into the SC approach. STSC, a local spatial statistic, was utilized to detect clusters around the known foci with a latent period. This study demonstrated STSC could better exploit the advantage of the original SC and improve the cluster detection due to the latent time component. The empirical results of STSC are expected to provide more useful policy implications with agencies in charge of preventing and controlling the spread of epidemics when deciding where to concentrate the limited resources available.

scholarly journals Modeling spatial and temporal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in France: identification of high-risk areas

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 699-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud LeMenach ◽  
Judith Legrand ◽  
Rebecca F. Grais ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Alain-Jacques Valleron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas

scholarly journals Implementing large Foot and Mouth Disease vaccination programmes for smallholder farmers: lessons from Lao PDR

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (16) ◽  
pp. 2086-2095 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Nampanya ◽  
S. Khounsy ◽  
R. Abila ◽  
P. A. Windsor
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Total Income ◽  
Large Ruminant ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas

AbstractThis study assessed smallholder finances and their attitudes towards the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) vaccination programme, when 1 620 000 vaccine doses were provided for strategic administration in large ruminants in FMD ‘high-risk’ areas in Laos between 2012 and 2016. Farmers (n = 168) in the provinces of Xayyabouli (XYL), Xiengkhoung (XK) and Huaphan (HP), were interviewed. Over 91% of the farmers responded that their livestock were vaccinated for FMD, with over 86% ranking FMD vaccination as a good or very good intervention. No FMD cases were reported from the vaccinated provinces after May 2013. Examination of the total income per household in XYL, XK and HP indicated earnings of US$5060(±650), US$4260(±294) and US$1691(±676), respectively (P = 0.001), with 23%, 28% and 68% of the total incomes from annual sales of large ruminant, respectively. Of the farmers in XYL, XK and HP, 83%, 93% and 70% (P = 0.009) said their annual income increased compared with 2012, and 47%, 64% and 41%, respectively (P = 0.005), indicated this increase was from additional large ruminant sales. The study indicated that this large FMD vaccination programme was well regarded by participating farmers and may have provided satisfactory suppression of the disease in Laos, despite not achieving the preferred vaccination coverage. Continuation of the vaccination programme in FMD high-risk areas is suggested as desirable.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanicha Chanchaidechachai ◽  
Helmut Saatkamp ◽  
Mart de Jong ◽  
Chaidate Inchaisri ◽  
Henk Hogeveen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Risk Areas

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were investigated using generalised estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season. The occurrences of FMD were mostly distributed as a number of small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repetitive outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors significantly associated with FMD outbreaks included the size of the dairy, beef, and pig populations in each subdistrict, the distance to the nearest subdistrict with an outbreak, the percentage of forest area, international border contact, the presence of a livestock market, and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimise the FMD control program in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

Clinical and Molecular Investigations of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak in Navi Mumbai, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (12) ◽  
pp. 1052-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhanya Dharmapalan ◽  
Vinay K. Saxena ◽  
Shailesh D. Pawar ◽  
Tarique H. I. H. Qureshi ◽  
Priyanka Surve
Keyword(s):  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Haoran ◽  
Xiao Jianhua ◽  
Ouyang Maolin ◽  
Gao Hongyan ◽  
Bie Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

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