Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Haoran ◽  
Xiao Jianhua ◽  
Ouyang Maolin ◽  
Gao Hongyan ◽  
Bie Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

scholarly journals Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Haoran ◽  
Xiao Jianhua ◽  
Ouyang Maolin ◽  
Gao Hongyan ◽  
Bie Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (parts of Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan and Guangdong), northern (parts of Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (parts of Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). Spring is the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC=0.8634). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and veterinary services can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

scholarly journals Regional-level risk factors for severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease: an ecological study from mainland China

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Pan ◽  
Fengfeng Liu ◽  
Juying Zhang ◽  
Xing Zhao ◽  
Yifan Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Central China ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
And Gender

Abstract Background Severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a life-threatening contagious disease among young children and infants. Although enterovirus A71 has been well acknowledged to be the dominant cause of severe HFMD, there still remain other unidentified risk factors for severe HFMD. Previous studies mainly focused on identifying the individual-level risk factors from a clinical perspective, while rare studies aimed to clarify the association between regional-level risk factors and severe HFMD, which may be more important from a public health perspective. Methods We retrieved the clinical HFMD counts between 2008 and 2014 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which were used to calculated the case-severity rate in 143 prefectural-level cities in mainland China. For each of those 143 cities, we further obtained city-specific characteristics from the China City Statistical Yearbook (social and economic variables) and the national meteorological monitoring system (meteorological variables). A Poisson regression model was then used to estimate the associations between city-specific characteristics (reduced by the principal component analysis to avoid multicollinearity) and the case-severity rate of HFMD. The above analysis was further stratified by age and gender to examine potential modifying effects and vulnerable sub-populations. Results We found that the case-severity rate of HFMD varied dramatically between cities, ranging from 0 to 8.09%. Cities with high case-severity rates were mainly clustered in Central China. By relating the case-severity rate to city-specific characteristics, we found that both the principal component characterized by a high level of social and economic development (RR = 0.823, 95%CI 0.739, 0.916) and another that characterized by warm and humid climate (RR = 0.771, 95%CI 0.619, 0.960) were negatively associated with the case-severity rate of HFMD. These estimations were consistent across age and gender sub-populations. Conclusion Except for the type of infected pathogen, the case-severity rate of HFMD was closely related to city development and meteorological factor. These findings suggest that social and environmental factors may also play an important role in the progress of severe HFMD.

scholarly journals Identification of foot and mouth disease risk areas using a multi-criteria analysis approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. e0178464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Viali dos Santos ◽  
Gustavo Sousa e Silva ◽  
Eliseu José Weber ◽  
Heinrich Hasenack ◽  
Fernando Henrique Sautter Groff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Risk ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Analysis Approach ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Multi Criteria Analysis

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanicha Chanchaidechachai ◽  
Helmut Saatkamp ◽  
Mart de Jong ◽  
Chaidate Inchaisri ◽  
Henk Hogeveen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Risk Areas

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were investigated using generalised estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season. The occurrences of FMD were mostly distributed as a number of small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repetitive outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors significantly associated with FMD outbreaks included the size of the dairy, beef, and pig populations in each subdistrict, the distance to the nearest subdistrict with an outbreak, the percentage of forest area, international border contact, the presence of a livestock market, and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimise the FMD control program in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

Risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease in sedentary livestock herds in selected villages in four regions of Bhutan

2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Dukpa ◽  
ID Robertson ◽  
JR Edwards ◽  
TM Ellis ◽  
P Tshering ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Synthetic peptide vaccine for Foot-and-Mouth Disease: synthesis, characterization and immunogenicity

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Banu Mansuroğlu ◽  
Serap Derman ◽  
Kadriye Kızılbey ◽  
Sezen Canım Ateş ◽  
Zeynep Mustafaeva Akdeste
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Peptide ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Peptide Vaccine ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Peptide Sequence ◽  
Free Peptide ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
And Control

AbstractBackgroundThe conjugations of antigenic synthetic peptide sequences with carrier polymers have opened new possibilities for the treatment of diseases. In this study, 135–161 peptide sequence of VP1 capsid protein of Foot-and-Mouth Disease was cross-linked with P(VP-co-AA) copolymer by covalent conjugation using water-soluble carbodiimide at different ratio of components (γ=5, 7, 9, 11, 15) for the first time in the literature.Materials and methodsBioconjugates were characterized by gel permeation chromatography and fluorescence spectroscopy to identify occurrences of the conjugates. After characterization, γ=15 bioconjugate was determined as optimum conjugate for immunization studies and IC50 value is calculated as 1.227 mg/mL. By determining the nontoxic range, indirect ELISA were performed to evaluate the immune response elicited in balb/c mice by either peptide or P(VP-co-AA)-peptide bioconjugates (γ=15). Two injections were applied to each group and high immune responses were obtained against γ=15 conjugate compared to free peptide and control.Results and conclusionAt the end of 9-week, the general pattern of immunoreactivity was acquired as γ=15>>peptide>control. Peptide formulated in the conjugated form had higher antibody response than free peptide and control (p<0.01, for all in both cases), this conjugate formulation put forward the adjuvant activity of P(VP-co-AA) polymer.

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