scholarly journals Comparing CISNET Breast Cancer Models Using the Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction Methodology

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 112S-125S ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen J. van den Broek ◽  
Nicolien T. van Ravesteyn ◽  
Jeanne S. Mandelblatt ◽  
Mucahit Cevik ◽  
Clyde B. Schechter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Current Guideline ◽  
Digital Mammogram ◽  
Mortality Reduction ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Background. Collaborative modeling has been used to estimate the impact of potential cancer screening strategies worldwide. A necessary step in the interpretation of collaborative cancer screening model results is to understand how model structure and model assumptions influence cancer incidence and mortality predictions. In this study, we examined the relative contributions of the pre-clinical duration of breast cancer, the sensitivity of screening, and the improvement in prognosis associated with treatment of screen-detected cases to the breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions of 5 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. Methods. To tease out the impact of model structure and assumptions on model predictions, the Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction (MCLIR) method compares changes in the number of breast cancers diagnosed due to clinical symptoms and cancer mortality between 4 simplified scenarios: 1) no-screening; 2) one-time perfect screening exam, which detects all existing cancers and perfect treatment (i.e., cure) of all screen-detected cancers; 3) one-time digital mammogram and perfect treatment of all screen-detected cancers; and 4) one-time digital mammogram and current guideline-concordant treatment of all screen-detected cancers. Results. The 5 models predicted a large range in maximum clinical incidence (19% to 71%) and in breast cancer mortality reduction (33% to 67%) from a one-time perfect screening test and perfect treatment. In this perfect scenario, the models with assumptions of tumor inception before it is first detectable by mammography predicted substantially higher incidence and mortality reductions than models with assumptions of tumor onset at the start of a cancer’s screen-detectable phase. The range across models in breast cancer clinical incidence (11% to 24%) and mortality reduction (8% to 18%) from a one-time digital mammogram at age 62 y with observed sensitivity and current guideline-concordant treatment was considerably smaller than achievable under perfect conditions. Conclusions. The timing of tumor inception and its effect on the length of the pre-clinical phase of breast cancer had a substantial impact on the grouping of models based on their predictions for clinical incidence and breast cancer mortality reduction. This key finding about the timing of tumor inception will be included in future CISNET breast analyses to enhance model transparency. The MCLIR approach should aid in the interpretation of variations in model results and could be adopted in other disease screening settings to enhance model transparency.

Breast cancer screening for carriers of ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants: A comparative modeling analysis.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10500-10500
Author(s):  
Kathryn P. Lowry ◽  
H. Amarens Geuzinge ◽  
Natasha K. Stout ◽  
Oguzhan Alagoz ◽  
John M. Hampton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Breast Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Pathogenic Variants ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

10500 Background: Inherited pathogenic variants in ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 confer moderate to high risks of breast cancer. The optimal approach to screening in these women has not been established. Methods: We used two simulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) and data from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility consortium (CARRIERS) to project lifetime breast cancer incidence and mortality in ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 carriers. We simulated screening with annual mammography from ages 40-74 alone and with annual magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) starting at ages 40, 35, 30, and 25. Joint and separate mammography and MRI screening performance was based on published literature. Lifetime outcomes per 1,000 women were reported as means and ranges across both models. Results: Estimated risk of breast cancer by age 80 was 22% (21-23%) for ATM, 28% (26-30%) for CHEK2, and 40% (38-42%) for PALB2. Screening with MRI and mammography reduced breast cancer mortality by 52-60% across variants (Table). Compared to no screening, starting MRI at age 30 increased life years (LY)/1000 women by 501 (478-523) in ATM, 620 (587-652) in CHEK2, and 1,025 (998-1,051) in PALB2. Starting MRI at age 25 versus 30 gained 9-12 LY/1000 women with 517-518 additional false positive screens and 197-198 benign biopsies. Conclusions: For women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants, breast cancer screening with MRI and mammography halves breast cancer mortality. These mortality benefits are similar to those for MRI screening for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and should inform practice guidelines.[Table: see text]

scholarly journals Breast cancer screening with mammography in women aged 40–49 years: Impact of length of screening interval on effectiveness of the program

2020 ◽  
pp. 096914132091828
Author(s):  
Zheng Mao ◽  
Lennarth Nyström ◽  
Håkan Jonsson
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Breast Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Interval Cancers ◽  
Screening Interval ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Objectives To estimate the impact on the effectiveness of Swedish breast cancer screening program in women aged 40–49 years of shortening the screening interval from 21 months to 18 or 12 months. Methods The reduction in breast cancer mortality among participants in screening with mammography was previously estimated in the Swedish SCReening of Young women (SCRY) study to be 29%. The expected increased effectiveness with a hypothetical shorter screening interval than the average of 21 months in SCRY was calculated using data about the women who died from breast cancer even though they participated in the SCRY program. Results During the study period, 547 women who participated in the index screening round died from breast cancer. Shortening the screening interval to 18 months led to an improved effectiveness of 0.7–3.9% considering interval cancers only and of 1.3–7.6% considering screening-detected cancers only, and for both interval and screening-detected cancers the improvement was 1.9–11.5% when the assumed mortality reduction for the deceased cases varied from 5% to 30%. Shortening the screening interval to 12 months increased the effectiveness by 1.6–9.8% for interval cancers and by 2.9–17.4% for both interval and screening-detected cancers. Conclusion Shortening the screening interval for women aged 40–49 years to 18 or 12 months might further reduce the breast cancer mortality rate.

Screening mammography in old women saves lives: A simulation model

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10561-10561
Author(s):  
E. Barrajon ◽  
A. Lopez ◽  
E. Adrover
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Mammographic Screening ◽  
Screening Mammography ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact

10561 Background: Screening mammography has shown to decrease breast cancer specific death rate by 20–25% and has been recommended in women aged 40 and above, nevertheless, some country service screen programs stop screening in women older than 69, even though the sensitivity and specificity of screening mammography is highest in older women, especially those older than 80 years. The size of the older population is growing exponentially and old women have the highest incidence of breast cancer; one third of breast cancer diagnosis and half the deaths of breast cancer in USA occurred in women aged 70 and above in the year 2000. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of mammographic screening in women aged 70 and above on breast cancer mortality. Methods: US Census, SEER, CISNET, CDC, HMD, ULTD databases were searched to obtain population data and rates of incidence and mortality of breast cancer by age. In addition, mammography screening bibliography from randomized clinical trials, meta-analysis, and service health programs publications were reviewed to estimate the impact of screening mammography on results for different strata. Analytical and simulation methods were applied for modeling the data with the aid of Mathematica to calculate breast cancer reduction rate. Results: A reduction in breast cancer mortality was observed with a magnitude proportional to age, even after taking into account competing risks of death by other causes in the aging population. Simulation of different scenarios revealed a decrease in breast cancer mortality in the range of 5 to15% for women younger than 50 years, 15 to 25% in the group of women aged 50 to 69, and 25 to 35% in women older than 69. Factors such as population life expectancy, breast cancer incidence, attrition rate in screening or cross-over, overall specificity of mammographic detection, interval of screening, impact the estimations, explaining in part some of the negative results of prevention trials. Conclusions: Reduction of breast cancer mortality by mammographic screening is proportional to age. Women aged 70 and above benefit more from mammographic screening than younger women. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

scholarly journals Nation-wide breast cancer screening in the Netherlands: Support for breast-cancer mortality reduction

1995 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 777-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry J. De Koning ◽  
Jacques Fracheboud ◽  
Rob Boer ◽  
André L. M. Verbeek ◽  
Hubertine J. A. Collette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Breast Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mortality Reduction

scholarly journals Comparing CISNET Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Predictions to Observed Clinical Trial Results of Mammography Screening from Ages 40 to 49

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 140S-150S ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen J. van den Broek ◽  
Nicolien T. van Ravesteyn ◽  
Jeanne S. Mandelblatt ◽  
Hui Huang ◽  
Mehmet Ali Ergun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mammography Screening ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Mortality Reduction ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Uk

Background. The UK Age trial compared annual mammography screening of women ages 40 to 49 years with no screening and found a statistically significant breast cancer mortality reduction at the 10-year follow-up but not at the 17-year follow-up. The objective of this study was to compare the observed Age trial results with the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer model predicted results. Methods. Five established CISNET breast cancer models used data on population demographics, screening attendance, and mammography performance from the Age trial together with extant natural history parameters to project breast cancer incidence and mortality in the control and intervention arm of the trial. Results. The models closely reproduced the effect of annual screening from ages 40 to 49 years on breast cancer incidence. Restricted to breast cancer deaths originating from cancers diagnosed during the intervention phase, the models estimated an average 15% (range across models, 13% to 17%) breast cancer mortality reduction at the 10-year follow-up compared with 25% (95% CI, 3% to 42%) observed in the trial. At the 17-year follow-up, the models predicted 13% (range, 10% to 17%) reduction in breast cancer mortality compared with the non-significant 12% (95% CI, -4% to 26%) in the trial. Conclusions. The models underestimated the effect of screening on breast cancer mortality at the 10-year follow-up. Overall, the models captured the observed long-term effect of screening from age 40 to 49 years on breast cancer incidence and mortality in the UK Age trial, suggesting that the model structures, input parameters, and assumptions about breast cancer natural history are reasonable for estimating the impact of screening on mortality in this age group.

scholarly journals Worldwide Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies Measuring the Effect of Mammography Screening Programmes on Incidence-Based Breast Cancer Mortality

Cancers ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 976
Author(s):  
Amanda Dibden ◽  
Judith Offman ◽  
Stephen W. Duffy ◽  
Rhian Gabe
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Breast Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mammography Screening ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Actual Attendance

In 2012, the Euroscreen project published a review of incidence-based mortality evaluations of breast cancer screening programmes. In this paper, we update this review to October 2019 and expand its scope from Europe to worldwide. We carried out a systematic review of incidence-based mortality studies of breast cancer screening programmes, and a meta-analysis of the estimated effects of both invitation to screening and attendance at screening, with adjustment for self-selection bias, on incidence-based mortality from breast cancer. We found 27 valid studies. The results of the meta-analysis showed a significant 22% reduction in breast cancer mortality with invitation to screening, with a relative risk of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.82), and a significant 33% reduction with actual attendance at screening (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.61–0.75). Breast cancer screening in the routine healthcare setting continues to confer a substantial reduction in mortality from breast cancer.

Advanced Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Mortality in Randomized Controlled Trials on Mammography Screening

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (35) ◽  
pp. 5919-5923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Autier ◽  
Clarisse Héry ◽  
Jari Haukka ◽  
Mathieu Boniol ◽  
Graham Byrnes
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Advanced Breast Cancer ◽  
Breast Cancer Screening ◽  
Advanced Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Advanced Breast ◽  
Published Data ◽  
National Breast

Purpose We assessed changes in advanced cancer incidence and cancer mortality in eight randomized trials of breast cancer screening. Patients and Methods Depending on published data, advanced cancer was defined as cancer ≥ 20 mm in size (four trials), stage II+ (four trials), and ≥ one positive lymph node (one trial). For each trial, we obtained the estimated relative risk (RR) and 95% CI between the intervention and control groups, for both breast cancer mortality and diagnosis of advanced breast cancer. Using a meta-regression approach, log(RR-mortality) was regressed on log(RR-advanced cancer), weighting each trial by the reciprocal of the square of the standard error of log(RR) for mortality. Results RR for advanced breast cancer ranged from 0.69 (95% CI, 0.61 to 0.78) in the Swedish Two-County Trial to 0.97 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.25) in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study-1 (NBSS-1) trial. Log(RR)s for advanced cancer were highly predictive of log(RR)s for mortality (R2 = 0.95; P < .0001), and the linear regression curve had a slope of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.25) after fixing the intercept to zero. The slope changed only slightly after excluding the Two-County Trial and the Canadian NBSS-1 and NBSS-2 trials. Conclusion In trials on breast cancer screening, for each unit decrease in incidence of advanced breast cancer, there was an equal decrease in breast cancer mortality. Monitoring of incidence of advanced breast cancer may provide information on the current impact of screening on breast cancer mortality in the general population.

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