scholarly journals Risk Assessment in Habitual Offenders With Substance Use Problems: A Quasi-Prospective Study of the Predictive Validity of the HKT-30

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4187-4195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Lammers ◽  
Lot Kokkelink ◽  
Hein deHaan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Prospective Design ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Substance Use Problems ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Habitual Offenders

The predictive validity of the Dutch risk assessment instrument HKT-30 was investigated with a quasi-prospective design in a sample of habitual offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD). The study is reported according to RAGEE guidelines. The HKT-30 is an extension of the HCR-20. Files of 89 patients were coded and recidivism data were requested from the Ministry of Justice. Total scale scores and scores of the Clinical and Future scales were significantly predictive of recidivism for 1 and 2 years of time at risk, respectively. In contrast to earlier studies into recidivism, the H-scale had no predictive value. Regression analysis showed that the Clinical and Future scales contributed to the explanation of variance in recidivism, but not independently from each other. The conclusion is that the HKT-30 is a useful instrument for discovering risk factors and predicting recidivism for the population of habitual offenders with an SUD.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1213-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine E. McCallum ◽  
Marcus T. Boccaccini ◽  
Claire N. Bryson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Treatment Motivation ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk

In Colorado, evaluators conducting sex offender risk assessments are required to assess 17 risk factors specified by the state’s Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB), in addition to scoring actuarial risk assessment instruments. This study examined the association between instrument scores, the 17 SOMB risk factors, and evaluator opinions concerning risk and need for containment in 302 Colorado cases. Evaluators’ ratings of risk indicated by noninstrument factors were often higher than their ratings of risk indicated by instrument results, but only their ratings of noninstrument factors were independently predictive of containment recommendations. Several of the most influential noninstrument factors (e.g., denial, treatment motivation) have been described by researchers as potentially misleading because they are not predictive of future offending. Findings highlight the need for more studies examining the validity of what risk assessment evaluators actually do, as opposed to what researchers think they should do.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

The Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA)

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 717-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy F. Mills ◽  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Toni Hemmati
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Antisocial Attitudes ◽  
Adult Male Offenders

Recent research has demonstrated that antisocial attitudes and antisocial associates are among the better predictors of antisocial behavior. This study tests the predictive validity of the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA) in a sample of adult male offenders. The MCAA comprises two parts: Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends, and Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent, and Associates. The MCAA scales showed predictive validity for the outcomes of general and violent recidivism. In addition, the MCAA significantly improved the prediction of violent recidivism over an actuarial risk assessment instrument alone. Discussion centers on the contribution that antisocial attitudes and associates make to risk assessment.

scholarly journals Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 2259-2270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Bogaerts ◽  
Marinus Spreen ◽  
Paul ter Horst ◽  
Coby Gerlsma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Judgment ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

Risk Factors for Absconding Among Adult Parolees in Colorado

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (14) ◽  
pp. 4622-4641
Author(s):  
Ráchael A. Powers ◽  
Catherine Kaukinen ◽  
Norair Khachatryan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Abuse ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Social Characteristics ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument

Studies that have examined absconding have pointed to the relevance of factors related to demographics, situational, and social characteristics, as well as criminal history variables as predictive of offenders’ decision to abscond. This study contributes to this literature by extending factors that have been explored for criminal justice outcomes such as recidivism to predict the likelihood of absconding. In particular, this study incorporates the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) risk assessment instrument and types of violations to examine their impact on the likelihood of absconding. Using a large sample of parolees from Colorado ( n = 30,181), the findings in this study indicate that the largest predictors of absconding were substance abuse problems and education. In addition, variables measuring the components of the LSI-R and specific nonabsconding parole violations moderately predict absconding. The implications of the findings and recommendations for future research are discussed.

Comment on “The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations”

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1236-1241
Author(s):  
Christopher Lobanov-Rostovsky
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Potential Confounding Variable ◽  
Standards And Guidelines ◽  
And Behavior

The work of the Colorado Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB) has been called into question as a result of the manuscript “The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on the Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations” published in Criminal Justice and Behavior (2017). This response covers the following areas: significant nomenclature problems used to describe the Adult Standards and Guidelines, the dated nature of the SOMB citations in the manuscript, the flaws in the interpretation of the use of the 17 SOMB risk factors and the SOMB policy related to risk assessment, a potential confounding variable that may explain the results obtained, and finally the work of the SOMB to foster the use of validated risk assessment instruments and evidence-based policies and practices. The SOMB takes pride in providing up-to-date, research-supported practices for its providers and would never intentionally do otherwise, as suggested by the article.

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