Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

The Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA)

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 717-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy F. Mills ◽  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Toni Hemmati
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Antisocial Attitudes ◽  
Adult Male Offenders

Recent research has demonstrated that antisocial attitudes and antisocial associates are among the better predictors of antisocial behavior. This study tests the predictive validity of the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA) in a sample of adult male offenders. The MCAA comprises two parts: Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends, and Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent, and Associates. The MCAA scales showed predictive validity for the outcomes of general and violent recidivism. In addition, the MCAA significantly improved the prediction of violent recidivism over an actuarial risk assessment instrument alone. Discussion centers on the contribution that antisocial attitudes and associates make to risk assessment.

scholarly journals Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 2259-2270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Bogaerts ◽  
Marinus Spreen ◽  
Paul ter Horst ◽  
Coby Gerlsma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Judgment ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment in Habitual Offenders With Substance Use Problems: A Quasi-Prospective Study of the Predictive Validity of the HKT-30

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4187-4195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Lammers ◽  
Lot Kokkelink ◽  
Hein deHaan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Prospective Design ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Substance Use Problems ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Habitual Offenders

The predictive validity of the Dutch risk assessment instrument HKT-30 was investigated with a quasi-prospective design in a sample of habitual offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD). The study is reported according to RAGEE guidelines. The HKT-30 is an extension of the HCR-20. Files of 89 patients were coded and recidivism data were requested from the Ministry of Justice. Total scale scores and scores of the Clinical and Future scales were significantly predictive of recidivism for 1 and 2 years of time at risk, respectively. In contrast to earlier studies into recidivism, the H-scale had no predictive value. Regression analysis showed that the Clinical and Future scales contributed to the explanation of variance in recidivism, but not independently from each other. The conclusion is that the HKT-30 is a useful instrument for discovering risk factors and predicting recidivism for the population of habitual offenders with an SUD.

The Impact of Using Documented but Uncharged Offense Data on JSORRAT-II Predictive Validity

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Ralston ◽  
Amar Sarkar ◽  
Grace T. Philipp ◽  
Douglas L. Epperson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Sexual Offender Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sexual Offender ◽  
The Impact

Following the implementation of sexual offender notification laws, researchers have found a drop in the rate of prosecutions and an increase in plea bargains for sexual offenses committed by male juveniles. This type of prosecutorial hesitation has implications for the predictive validity of sexual recidivism risk assessments, such as the Juvenile Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (JSORRAT-II), that require data from officially adjudicated offenses in the scoring of several items. The present study sought to test the impact of including data from documented but uncharged (DBU) sexual offenses in the scoring of the JSORRAT-II on its predictive validity using an exhaustive sample of 1,095 juveniles who offended sexually from the states of Iowa and Utah. Although sexual recidivists had significantly more DBU data, the inclusion of those data did not improve the predictive validity of the tool. The authors discuss additional reasons why changes in prosecutorial practice might remain confound in risk assessment studies and suggest future research to investigate those hypotheses.

Evaluating Fairness of Algorithmic Risk Assessment Instruments: The Problem With Forcing Dichotomies

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110405
Author(s):  
Samantha A. Zottola ◽  
Sarah L. Desmarais ◽  
Evan M. Lowder ◽  
Sarah E. Duhart Clarke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
False Positive ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Assessment Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Future Work

Researchers and stakeholders have developed many definitions to evaluate whether algorithmic pretrial risk assessment instruments are fair in terms of their error and accuracy. Error and accuracy are often operationalized using three sets of indicators: false-positive and false-negative percentages, false-positive and false-negative rates, and positive and negative predictive value. To calculate these indicators, a threshold must be set, and continuous risk scores must be dichotomized. We provide a data-driven examination of these three sets of indicators using data from three studies on the most widely used algorithmic pretrial risk assessment instruments: the Public Safety Assessment, the Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument, and the Federal Pretrial Risk Assessment. Overall, our findings highlight how conclusions regarding fairness are affected by the limitations of these indicators. Future work should move toward examining whether there are biases in how the risk assessment scores are used to inform decision-making.

The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1213-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine E. McCallum ◽  
Marcus T. Boccaccini ◽  
Claire N. Bryson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Treatment Motivation ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk

In Colorado, evaluators conducting sex offender risk assessments are required to assess 17 risk factors specified by the state’s Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB), in addition to scoring actuarial risk assessment instruments. This study examined the association between instrument scores, the 17 SOMB risk factors, and evaluator opinions concerning risk and need for containment in 302 Colorado cases. Evaluators’ ratings of risk indicated by noninstrument factors were often higher than their ratings of risk indicated by instrument results, but only their ratings of noninstrument factors were independently predictive of containment recommendations. Several of the most influential noninstrument factors (e.g., denial, treatment motivation) have been described by researchers as potentially misleading because they are not predictive of future offending. Findings highlight the need for more studies examining the validity of what risk assessment evaluators actually do, as opposed to what researchers think they should do.

scholarly journals Are other feasible options available for screening of risk assessment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women at community level in Southern Coastal India

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Gowry Reddy ◽  
Priya Rathi ◽  
Unnikrishnan B. ◽  
Surendra Kamath ◽  
Kalpita Shringapure
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Postmenopausal Women ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Osteoporosis Risk ◽  
Osteoporotic Risk

Background: Osteoporosis is a chronic debilitating condition which exhibits iceberg phenomenon. Identification at an early stage of disease will enable preventive measures to reduce the incidence of disease and complications. Owing to the cost of diagnostic test, this study, various screening tools such as WHO fracture risk assessment tool, osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians, simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation and osteoporosis risk assessment instrument   have been used for assessment, in order to screen postmenopausal women in the preliminary stages.Methods: A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 107 postmenopausal women carried over a period of five months.Results: Prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia was 24.3% and 69.2%. The area under the curve for osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA), simple calculated osteoporotic risk estimation (SCORE) and osteoporotic risk assessment instrument (ORAI) was 0.731, 0.407 and 0.172 respectively. OSTA proved to be effective in differentiating normal BMD from low BMD score (i.e., osteopenia and osteoporosis) with a cut off of 1.1, SCORE to be more effective in screening osteoporosis than the other tools because it had a higher positive probability with a cut off 22.  FRAX tool predicted probability of five and three percent probability of major fracture and hip fracture risk in ten yearsConclusions: Various tools assessed in the studies can be utilized at community level for identifying high risk women in post-menopausal stage but with different cut offs. This will reduce the cost of screening and also facilitate non pharmacological measures to reduce the progression of disease.

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