Jurisdiction-Specific versus SafetyAnalyst-Default Safety Performance Functions: Case Study on Two-Lane and Multi-Lane Arterials

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (10) ◽  
pp. 501-509
Author(s):  
Hector Vargas ◽  
Asif Raihan ◽  
Priyanka Alluri ◽  
Albert Gan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Screening Criteria ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Safety Performance Functions

Network screening is the most important step in the highway safety management process. Screening criteria based on the empirical Bayes (EB) approach are considered to be most reliable as it accounts for the regression-to-the-mean bias. However, the EB approach requires safety performance functions (SPFs), preferably calibrated to local conditions, which are often unavailable. The SafetyAnalyst software, developed by the Federal Highway Administration, automates the EB approach using the default SPFs which were developed using multiple states’ data. Local agencies are encouraged to develop jurisdiction-specific SPFs to better reflect local conditions. However, the benefits of developing local SPFs for rural and urban two-lane and multi-lane highway facilities are unclear and may vary from state to state. This research compares the performance of Florida-specific SPFs with SafetyAnalyst-default SPFs calibrated to Florida data using mean absolute deviation, mean squared predicted error, and Freeman-Tukey R-square goodness-of-fit measures. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs generally produced better-fitted models than the calibrated SafetyAnalyst-default SPFs. In contrast, when the crash prediction capabilities of the already-available local SPFs, calibrated to the latest time period for which they will be applied, are compared with the calibrated SafetyAnalyst-default SPFs, the calibrated SafetyAnalyst-default SPFs in general were found to better predict crash frequencies compared with the existing Florida-specific SPFs calibrated to the latest data. Therefore, the local SPFs are recommended when developed using present data; however, the calibrated SafetyAnalyst-default SPFs could be used if local SPFs developed from present data are not available.

Simple Index to Assess the Calibration Quality of Safety Performance Functions Based on Multiple Goodness-of-Fit Metrics

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110088
Author(s):  
Raul E. Avelar ◽  
Karen Dixon ◽  
Boniphace Kutela ◽  
Sam Klump ◽  
Beth Wemple ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Safety Database ◽  
Simple Index ◽  
Safety Performance Functions

The calibration of safety performance functions (SPFs) is a mechanism included in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) to adjust SPFs in the HSM for use in intended jurisdictions. Critically, the quality of the calibration procedure must be assessed before using the calibrated SPFs. Multiple resources to aid practitioners in calibrating SPFs have been developed in the years following the publication of the HSM 1st edition. Similarly, the literature suggests multiple ways to assess the goodness-of-fit (GOF) of a calibrated SPF to a data set from a given jurisdiction. This paper uses the calibration results of multiple intersection SPFs to a large Mississippi safety database to examine the relations between multiple GOF metrics. The goal is to develop a sensible single index that leverages the joint information from multiple GOF metrics to assess overall quality of calibration. A factor analysis applied to the calibration results revealed three underlying factors explaining 76% of the variability in the data. From these results, the authors developed an index and performed a sensitivity analysis. The key metrics were found to be, in descending order: the deviation of the cumulative residual (CURE) plot from the 95% confidence area, the mean absolute deviation, the modified R-squared, and the value of the calibration factor. This paper also presents comparisons between the index and alternative scoring strategies, as well as an effort to verify the results using synthetic data. The developed index is recommended to comprehensively assess the quality of the calibrated intersection SPFs.

Evaluation of Safety Performance Functions Based on Experimental Design Using a Cross-Validation Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 2636 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Han Wang ◽  
Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty ◽  
Jaeyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Major Road ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Annual Average Daily Traffic ◽  
Minor Road ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
The One ◽  
Leave One Out

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Part C provides a series of safety performance functions (SPFs) for different roadway conditions. The SPFs suggested in the HSM are formulated on the basis of exposure variables: the logarithms of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the major road and on the minor road under the base condition. In this research, data from 7,802 intersections in Florida were collected and processed. These intersections were categorized into seven types based on area type (rural or urban), number of legs (three or four), and number of approaches controlled by stop signs. Twenty-two SPF formulations, including the one suggested by the HSM, were developed for each intersection type for examination of the goodness-of-fit measures of the SPFs. In addition, the goodness of fit of each model of the 22 SPFs in each category was examined with 10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). With a comparison of the delta values generated with the LOOCV method, it is suggested that the SPF with the logarithm of the total entering vehicle volume and the ratio of the AADT on the minor road and the AADT on the major road are important. In addition, the SPFs with the AADT on the major road and the AADT on the minor road and their logarithmic transformations are also important. Therefore, it is suggested that the future HSM compare these two SPF formulations—as suggested in the current research, along with the original SPF formulation in the manual—and select the one with the best model fit on the basis of the delta value using LOOCV.

Calibration of the Highway Safety ManualGiven Safety Performance Functions for RuralMultilane Segments and Intersections in Kansas

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syeda Rubaiyat Aziz ◽  
Sunanda Dissanayake
Keyword(s):  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Crash Prediction ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Satisfactory Level ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Predictive Methods

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for safety evaluation and prediction of safety performance of various types of roadways. However, predictive methods in the HSM are of limited use if they are not calibrated for local conditions. In this study, calibration procedures given in the HSM were followed for rural segments and intersections in Kansas. Results indicated that HSM overpredicts fatal and injury crashes and underpredicts total crashes on rural multilane roadway segments in Kansas. Therefore, existing safety performance functions (SPFs) must be adjusted for Kansas conditions, in order to increase accuracy of crash prediction. This study examined a way to adjust HSM calibration procedures by development of new regression coefficients for existing HSM-given SPF. Final calibration factors obtained through modified SPFs indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural multilane segments in Kansas. Additionally, obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections at satisfactory level.

Safety Performance Functions for Signalized Intersections in Large Urban Areas

2005 ◽  
Vol 1908 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig Lyon ◽  
Anwar Haq ◽  
Bhagwant Persaud ◽  
Steven T. Kodama
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Signalized Intersections ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Signalized Intersection ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Side Impacts ◽  
Recent Interest ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Network Screening

This paper describes the development of safety performance functions (SPFs) for 1,950 urban signalized intersections on the basis of 5 years of collision data in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Because Toronto has one of the largest known, readily accessible, urban signalized intersection databases, it was possible to develop reliable, widely applicable SPFs for different intersection classifications, collision severities, and impact types. Such a comprehensive set of SPFs is not available for urban signalized intersections from data for a single jurisdiction, despite the considerable recent interest in use of these functions for analyses related to network screening, and the development, prioritization, and evaluation of treatments. The application of a straightforward recalibration process requiring relatively little data means that the SPFs calibrated can be used by researchers and practitioners for other jurisdictions for which these functions do not exist and are unlikely to exist for some time. The value of the functions is illustrated in an application to evaluate a topical safety measure—left-turn priority treatment for which existing knowledge is on a shaky foundation. The results of this empirical Bayes evaluation show that this treatment is quite effective for reducing collisions, particularly those involving left-turn side impacts.

Changing the Future?: Development and Application of Pedestrian Safety Performance Functions to Prioritize Locations in Seattle, Washington

2017 ◽  
Vol 2659 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libby Thomas ◽  
Bo Lan ◽  
Rebecca L. Sanders ◽  
Alexandra Frackelton ◽  
Spencer Gardner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Crash Prediction ◽  
Safety Improvement ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Pedestrian Crashes ◽  
Crash Types ◽  
Treatment Priorities

This study aimed to use robust analysis methods to identify and screen locations at risk for pedestrian crashes and injuries to help Seattle, Washington, a Vision Zero city, broaden treatment priorities beyond only high-crash locations. For this objective, data from the entire network were used to develop safety performance functions (SPFs) for two pedestrian crash types: total pedestrian crashes at intersections (a high frequency type) and a subset of intersection crashes involving through motorists striking crossing pedestrians (a high severity type). Many variables from roadway, built environment, census, and activity measures were tested. A similar but not identical set of variables, including measures of activity and intersection size and complexity, significantly contributed to crash prediction in both models. Pedestrian volume exhibited a curved relationship to crashes and demonstrated a tendency for expected crashes to begin to decline above a threshold value; however, the causes of this relationship were unknown. The SPFs were used in several ranking methods, including SPF-predicted crashes, empirical Bayes estimated crashes, and potential for safety improvement, to aid in prioritization of locations that might have been candidates for safety improvement but that had not necessarily experienced a high frequency of crashes. On the basis of this example, this approach is feasible for jurisdictions that wish to be more proactive in addressing potential crashes and injuries. Jurisdictions must, however, begin routinely collecting the data needed to implement the method efficiently.

scholarly journals Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual and the SafetyAnalyst Methodologies for Ontario Highways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rural Highways ◽  
Part C ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Central Regions

SafetyAnalyst and the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) are two tools that are expected to revolutionize highway safety analyses. A key issue that allows SafetyAnalyst and HSM to become the new standards in road safety engineering is the calibration of their safety performance functions (SPFs) across time and jurisdictions. In this study, the methodologies of SafetyAnalyst and HSM are calibrated for Ontario to evaluate the effective transferability of their SPFs to local topographical conditions. A SafetyAnalyst calibration has been completed for Ontario highways and freeways, intersections, and ramps for six years (1998-2003) of traffic and accident counts. A data set which consists of 78 kilometres of rural two-lane two-way highways and 71 three- and four-legged stop controlled intersections located in the eastern and central regions of the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) with six years (2002 to 2007) of traffic volume and collision counts has been used to evaluate the HSM SPFs to Ontario data. Several goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures are computed to assess the transferability and suitability of the crash models for applicability in Ontario. The study suggests that while most of the SafetyAnalyst SPFs for highways and ramps are not adaptable to Ontario data, the recalibrated SafetyAnalyst SPFs for intersections and also the recalibrated HSM Part C predictive models for two-lane rural highways and intersections provide satisfactory results in comparison to the crash models developed specifically for Ontario. Finally, this research highlights the substantial need for future improvements in data quality for more reliable safety performance estimations and evaluations.

scholarly journals Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso Montella ◽  
Vittorio Marzano ◽  
Filomena Mauriello ◽  
Roberta Vitillo ◽  
Roberto Fasanelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
Generalized Linear Modelling ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Education Projects

This paper presents macro-level safety performance functions and aims to provide empirical tools for planners and engineers to conduct proactive analyses, promote more sustainable development patterns, and reduce road crashes. In the past decade, several studies have been conducted for crash modeling at a macro-level, yet in Italy, macro-level safety performance functions have neither been calibrated nor used, until now. Therefore, for Italy to be able to fully benefit from applying these models, it is necessary to calibrate the models to local conditions. Generalized linear modelling techniques were used to fit the models, and a negative binomial distribution error structure was assumed. The study used a sample of 15,254 crashes which occurred in the period of 2009–2011 in Naples, Italy. Four traffic analysis zones (TAZ) levels were used, as one of the aims of this paper is to check the extent to which these zoning levels help in addressing the issue. The models were developed by the stepwise forward procedure using explanatory Socio-Demographic (S-D), Transportation Demand Management (TDM), and Exposure variables. The most significant variables were: children and young people placed in re-education projects, population, population aged 65 and above, population aged 25 to 44, male population, total vehicle kilometers traveled, average congestion level, average speed, number of trips originating in the TAZ, number of trips ending in the TAZ, number of total trips and, number of bus stops served per hour. An important result of the study is that children and young people placed in re-education projects negatively affects the frequency of crashes, i.e., it has a positive safety effect. This demonstrates the effectiveness of education projects, especially on children from disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

scholarly journals Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual and the SafetyAnalyst Methodologies for Ontario Highways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rural Highways ◽  
Part C ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Central Regions

SafetyAnalyst and the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) are two tools that are expected to revolutionize highway safety analyses. A key issue that allows SafetyAnalyst and HSM to become the new standards in road safety engineering is the calibration of their safety performance functions (SPFs) across time and jurisdictions. In this study, the methodologies of SafetyAnalyst and HSM are calibrated for Ontario to evaluate the effective transferability of their SPFs to local topographical conditions. A SafetyAnalyst calibration has been completed for Ontario highways and freeways, intersections, and ramps for six years (1998-2003) of traffic and accident counts. A data set which consists of 78 kilometres of rural two-lane two-way highways and 71 three- and four-legged stop controlled intersections located in the eastern and central regions of the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) with six years (2002 to 2007) of traffic volume and collision counts has been used to evaluate the HSM SPFs to Ontario data. Several goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures are computed to assess the transferability and suitability of the crash models for applicability in Ontario. The study suggests that while most of the SafetyAnalyst SPFs for highways and ramps are not adaptable to Ontario data, the recalibrated SafetyAnalyst SPFs for intersections and also the recalibrated HSM Part C predictive models for two-lane rural highways and intersections provide satisfactory results in comparison to the crash models developed specifically for Ontario. Finally, this research highlights the substantial need for future improvements in data quality for more reliable safety performance estimations and evaluations.

Investigating Total Annual Average Daily Traffic as a Surrogate for Motorcycle Volumes in Estimating Safety Performance Functions for Motorcycle Crashes

2017 ◽  
Vol 2637 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
Craig Lyon ◽  
Bhagwant Persaud ◽  
Scott Himes
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Annual Average Daily Traffic ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Traffic Volumes ◽  
Crash Modification Factors ◽  
Crash Types ◽  
Motorcycle Crashes

Data on traffic volumes are required to estimate the safety performance functions (SPFs) used to develop crash modification factors and for various safety management applications. Estimation of SPFs for motorcycle crashes can be especially challenging because few jurisdictions collect motorcycle traffic volume data systematically. To address this challenge, analyses with data from Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia were conducted to explore how much predictive power for an SPF was lost when motorcycle traffic volumes were not known. The results of the analyses showed that when motorcycle volumes were unknown, the use of total annual average daily traffic on its own was sufficient to develop motorcycle crash SPFs. The potential bias from missing motorcycle-specific annual average daily traffic was sufficiently negligible where it existed, not to preclude SPF development. A more significant issue in the development of motorcycle crash SPFs is to work with a crash type that is relatively rare, so that SPFs cannot be developed for all motorcycle crash types or site types.

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