scholarly journals Geographic-Level Association of Contemporary Changes in Localized and Metastatic Prostate Cancer Incidence in the Era of Decreasing PSA Screening

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 107327482090226
Author(s):  
Daniel X. Yang ◽  
Danil V. Makarov ◽  
Cary P. Gross ◽  
James B. Yu

Decreased prostate-specific antigen screening since 2008 has generated much concern, including report of recent increase in metastatic prostate cancer incidence among older men. Although increased metastatic disease was temporally proceeded by decreased screening and decreased localized prostate cancer at diagnosis, it is unclear whether the 2 trends are geographically connected. We therefore used the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to assess geographic-specific associations between changes in localized (2008-2011) and later changes in metastatic prostate cancer incidence (2012-2015). We examined trends from 200 health-care service areas (HSAs) within SEER 18 registries. While on average for each HSA, localized incidence decreased by 27.4 and metastatic incidence increased by 2.3 per 100 000 men per year, individual HSA-level changes in localized incidence did not correlate with later changes in metastatic disease. Decreased detection of localized disease may not fully explain the recent increase in metastatic disease at diagnosis.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1567-1567
Author(s):  
Daniel X. Yang ◽  
Danil V. Makarov ◽  
Cary Philip Gross ◽  
James B. Yu

1567 Background: In the setting of decreased PSA screening, the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing in the United States. This was chronologically proceeded by decreasing localized prostate cancer incidence. While decreased detection of localized disease is hypothesized to increase likelihood of metastatic disease at diagnosis, it is unclear whether the two are geographically connected. Methods: Prostate cancer incidence was obtained from the of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for men 70 years or older. SEER Summary Stage 2000 was used to classify localized (local) and metastatic (distant) prostate cancers. Changes in incidence rates were calculated by health services areas (HSA), which each represents a relatively self-contained region of hospital care. We chose a priori to examine most recent years 2012-2015 for changes in metastatic disease, and proceeding years 2008-2011 for changes in localized disease. Population-weighted linear regression that was robust to outliers was performed. Results: A total of over 66,600 cases of localized and 6,400 cases of metastatic prostate cancer from 200 HSAs were included for analysis. From 2008 to 2011, localized incidence decreased from 613.6 to 534.2 per 100,000 men overall, and for each HSA on average decreased by 30.3 per 100,000 men for each year. From 2012 to 2015, metastatic incidence increased from 54.7 to 62.1 per 100,000 men overall, and for each HSA on average increased by 2.1 per 100,000 men for each year. Linear regression between HSA-level changes in localized and metastatic disease revealed a correlation coefficient of -0.023 (SE = 0.017, p = 0.16, 95% CI -0.056 to 0.009), representing lack of a statistically significant relationship between decreases in localized disease and later increases in metastatic disease within each health services region. Conclusions: Despite concerns of increasing metastatic prostate cancer incidence coinciding with decreases in PSA screening and localized cancer incidence, we do not observe a statistically significant geographic and temporal relationship between metastatic and localized disease at the HSA level. Our study is limited by short lead time and thus this trend warrants continued surveillance.


2022 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 102093
Author(s):  
Thanya Pathirana ◽  
Rehan Sequeira ◽  
Chris Del Mar ◽  
James A. Dickinson ◽  
Bruce K. Armstrong ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 211-211
Author(s):  
Marc Dall'Era ◽  
Ralph deVere White ◽  
Danielle Rodgriguez ◽  
Rosemary Donaldson Cress

211 Background: The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended against routine PSA based prostate cancer screening in all men in 2012. This led to dramatic reductions in screening and rates of localized disease across all clinical risk groups. We sought to study the impact of this on rates of metastatic disease, specifically by patient race and age. Methods: We analyzed new prostate cancer incidence by stage at diagnosis between 1988-2013 within the Cancer Registry of Greater California. We further stratified cases by four major race/ethnicity groups (non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB), Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian/PI (API)) and age. Incidence rates were calculated and compared per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US Standard Population. Joinpoint regression was used to detect changes in incidence and to calculate the average percent change (APC). Results: Adjusted rates of remote prostate cancer incidence for NHW men increased slightly in the most recent decade (+0.28%) after steady declines in previous years with the inflection point occurring in 2002, however this was not statistically significant. In contrast, incidence of remote prostate cancer continued to decline for NHB (-2.73%), Hispanic (-2.04%), and API (-1.45%) men. The greatest increase of +1.1% a year since 2002 was observed for NHW men under age 65. The incidence of localized prostate cancer declined for all race/ethnicity groups over the most recent time period and also declined in all age groups. After remaining relatively flat since 1992, incidence of localized prostate cancer among NHW men declined by over 8% per year starting in 2007 compared with a more gradual decline of -3.52% a year since 2000 for NHB, and more recent declines of -14.41% and -16.64% for Hispanic and API men, respectively. Incidence of regional stage cancer also declined in all groups, but less dramatically. Conclusions: Incidence rates of newly metastatic prostate cancer have not significantly changed since PSA screening declined in the US although we noted a slight upward trend primarily for younger, white men since 2002.


2010 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. iii83-iii89 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Larrañaga ◽  
J. Galceran ◽  
E. Ardanaz ◽  
P. Franch ◽  
C. Navarro ◽  
...  

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