scholarly journals Predicting Risk of Reoffending in Persons with Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offense Histories: The Use of Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool in a Scottish Population

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110471
Author(s):  
Valérie Savoie ◽  
Ethel Quayle ◽  
Elizabeth Flynn ◽  
Suzanne O’Rourke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Adult Males ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Child Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Scottish Population

In the past decade, there has been an increase in child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses and convictions. Although research shows that individuals with CSEM offence histories generally are at low risk of reoffending, certain factors do increase in CSEM convictions, in order to assist with case prioritization, management and supervision, risk assessment is helpful across agencies. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) was created specifically for this population and shows significant predictive validity for various outcomes. This study aimed to validate the use of the CPORT in a Scottish sample of 141 adult males who were convicted of CSEM offenses. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analyses indicated that the CPORT significantly predicted any recidivism (Area Under the Curve = .81), any sexual recidivism (AUC = .78) and CSEM recidivism (AUC = .74), suggesting that it is a valid risk assessment tool for Scottish populations. Recommendations for further research and clinical implications are discussed.

Internet-Facilitated Child Sexual Exploitation Crimes

2019 ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Keith F. Durkin ◽  
Ronald L. DeLong
Keyword(s):  
Human Trafficking ◽  
Psychological Assessment ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Child Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Internet Crimes Against Children ◽  
Classification And Treatment

Internet crimes against children are a problematic yet often misunderstood phenomenon. Prominent examples of these offenses include child pornography, adults soliciting minors online, and the commercialized sexual exploitation of minors (e.g., human trafficking). Drawing upon recent research, the characteristics of offenses, offenders, and victims are examined. A multitude of issues related to the psychological assessment, classification, and treatment of the individuals who commit these offenses are also explored. Strategies for the prevention of this behavior and protection of minors online are discussed.

A Validation Study of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W. Eke ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
Michael C. Seto
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Development And Validation

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

The Impact of Using Documented but Uncharged Offense Data on JSORRAT-II Predictive Validity

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Ralston ◽  
Amar Sarkar ◽  
Grace T. Philipp ◽  
Douglas L. Epperson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Sexual Offender Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sexual Offender ◽  
The Impact

Following the implementation of sexual offender notification laws, researchers have found a drop in the rate of prosecutions and an increase in plea bargains for sexual offenses committed by male juveniles. This type of prosecutorial hesitation has implications for the predictive validity of sexual recidivism risk assessments, such as the Juvenile Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (JSORRAT-II), that require data from officially adjudicated offenses in the scoring of several items. The present study sought to test the impact of including data from documented but uncharged (DBU) sexual offenses in the scoring of the JSORRAT-II on its predictive validity using an exhaustive sample of 1,095 juveniles who offended sexually from the states of Iowa and Utah. Although sexual recidivists had significantly more DBU data, the inclusion of those data did not improve the predictive validity of the tool. The authors discuss additional reasons why changes in prosecutorial practice might remain confound in risk assessment studies and suggest future research to investigate those hypotheses.

scholarly journals Comparison of Accuracy of NUTRIC and Modified NUTRIC Scores in Predicting 28-Day Mortality in Patients with Sepsis: A Single Center Retrospective Study

Nutrients ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dae Jeong ◽  
Sang-Bum Hong ◽  
Chae-Man Lim ◽  
Younsuck Koh ◽  
Jarim Seo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Nutritional Risk ◽  
Tertiary Referral Hospital ◽  
Nutrition Risk ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Using Data

The NUTRIC (Nutrition Risk in the Critically Ill) and modified NUTRIC scores are nutrition risk assessment tools specifically for intensive care unit (ICU) patients. A modified NUTRIC score is composed of all variables except for IL-6 level in the NUTRIC score. Their use in qualifying critically ill patients at nutritional risk has been extensively evaluated, although not in studies of patients with sepsis, when interleukin 6 levels, which are not included in the modified NUTRIC score, may be elevated. The present study was a retrospective comparison of the accuracy of the NUTRIC and modified NUTRIC scores in predicting 28-day mortality of 482 adult patients with sepsis who were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary referral hospital in South Korea between January 2011 and June 2017 and who had ICU stays longer than 24 h. The NUTRIC and modified NUTRIC scores were calculated using data from the patients’ electronic medical records relating to the first 24 h of admission to the ICU. The area under the curve of the NUTRIC Score for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.762 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.718–0.806) and of the modified NUTRIC Score 0.757 (95% CI: 0.713–0.801). There was no significant difference between the two scores (p = 0.45). The modified NUTRIC score was a good nutritional risk assessment tool for critically ill septic patients.

scholarly journals Assessment Tools for Identifying Functional Limitations Associated With Functional Ankle Instability

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott E. Ross ◽  
Kevin M. Guskiewicz ◽  
Michael T. Gross ◽  
Bing Yu
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Ankle Instability ◽  
Functional Limitations ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Functional Ankle Instability ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Time To Stabilization

Abstract Context: Assessment tools should identify functional limitations associated with functional ankle instability (FAI) by discriminating unstable from stable ankles. Objective: To identify assessment tools that discriminated FAI from stable ankles and determine the most accurate assessment tool for discriminating between FAI and stable ankles. Design: Case-control study. Setting: Research laboratory. Patients or Other Participants: Fifteen individuals with FAI and 15 healthy individuals; participants with unilateral FAI reported “giving-way” sensations and ankle sprains, whereas healthy participants did not. Intervention(s): Participants answered 12 questions on the Ankle Joint Functional Assessment Tool (AJFAT). They also performed a single-leg jump landing, which required them to jump to half their maximum jump height, land on a single leg, and stabilize quickly on a force plate. Main Outcome Measure(s): Receiver operating characteristic curves determined cutoff scores for discriminating between ankle groups for AJFAT total score and resultant vector (RV) time to stabilization. Accuracy values for discriminating between groups were determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: The cutoff score for discriminating between FAI and stable ankles was ≥26 (sensitivity  =  1, specificity  =  1) and ≥1.58 seconds (sensitivity  =  0.67, specificity  =  0.73) for the AJFAT total score and RV time to stabilization, respectively. The area under the curve for the AJFAT was 1.0 (asymptotic significance <.05), whereas the RV time to stabilization had an area under the curve of 0.72 (asymptotic significance <.05). Conclusions: The AJFAT was an excellent assessment tool for discriminating between ankle groups, whereas RV time to stabilization was a fair assessment tool. Although both assessments discriminated between ankle groups, the AJFAT more accurately discriminated between groups than the RV time to stabilization did. Future researchers should confirm these findings using a prospective research design.

Predicting First-Time Sexual Offending Among Prisoners Without a Prior Sex Offense History

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
pp. 1436-1456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Bootstrap Resampling ◽  
Criminal Offending ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Sex Offense ◽  
First Time ◽  
Selection Of

In an effort to reduce first-time sexual offending, this study focuses on the development of a risk assessment tool, the Minnesota Sexual Criminal Offending Risk Estimate (MnSCORE), designed for prisoners without any prior sexual offending history. Logistic regression modeling was used to develop the MnSCORE on a sample of 9,064 male offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. Bootstrap resampling was used to not only refine the selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. With an optimism-corrected area under the curve (AUC) of 0.763, the results showed the MnSCORE has moderately high predictive discrimination. Because the risk of first-time sexual offending was significantly lower for offenders who completed prison-based chemical dependency (CD) treatment, it is anticipated the MnSCORE may best be used as a trailer assessment to help better prioritize prisoners for CD treatment—both in prison and in the community following release.

Comparing Predictive Validity of JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪ With Sexually Abusive Youth in Long-Term Residential Custody

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 2937-2953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucinda A. Lee Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Residential Treatment Facility ◽  
Sexually Abusive ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Representative Samples

This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study sample consisted of 129 male adjudicated adolescents housed in a secured residential treatment facility for sexually abusive youth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that MEGA♪ Risk Scale was mildly predictive of sexual recidivism over a 6-year period (mean follow-up = 15.6 months)—area under the curve (AUC) = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.52, 0.82]; p < .015. JSORRAT-II was not predictive (AUC = .57; 95% CI = [0.42, 0.72]; p < .297). The study contributes to scant literature on the most contemporary, statistically robust risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth.

Child Sexual Exploitation Materials Offenders

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
Hannah L. Merdian ◽  
Ross M. Bartels ◽  
Derek Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Sexual Interest ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Child Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Antisocial Tendencies

Abstract. The downloading and possession of Child Sexual Exploitation Materials (CSEM; also referred to as child pornography and indecent images of children) is a commonly convicted type of Internet sexual offenses. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on CSEM offenders. We first provide a summary of the key motivations of CSEM offenders, characteristics of CSEM offenders compared to contact sexual offenders against children, and important facilitative factors. We then review the factors related to recidivism among CSEM offenders. Finally, we describe current developments in the risk assessment, police case prioritization, and treatment approaches for CSEM offenders. Generally, CSEM offenders hold a sexual interest in children, are low on antisocial tendencies, and pose a low risk to reoffend (including contact sexual offending). Key facilitative factors for CSEM offending include access to children, offense-supportive cognitions, and sexual arousal. Factors indicative of antisocial tendencies (e.g., criminal history) are associated with an increased risk of reoffending. Lastly, we address atypical sexual interest, socio-affective dysfunctions, and strategies for maintaining an offense-free lifestyle as key treatment targets for CSEM offenders. Lower treatment dosage, however, should be considered given CSEM-exclusive offenders’ lower risk level for contact sexual offenses. We hope that this review will inspire others to explore the current research gaps in future studies.

scholarly journals Risk assessment and receiver operating characteristic curves

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 895-898 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Szmukler ◽  
B. Everitt ◽  
M. Leese
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Risk assessment is now regarded as a necessary competence in psychiatry. The area under the curve (AUC) statistic of the receiver operating characteristic curve is increasingly offered as the main evidence for accuracy of risk assessment instruments. But, even a highly statistically significant AUC is of limited value in clinical practice.

scholarly journals Sexual Interests of Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) Consumers: Four Patterns of Severity Over Time

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Fortin ◽  
Jean Proulx
Keyword(s):  
Child Pornography ◽  
Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Information Networks ◽  
Progressive Decrease ◽  
Hard Drives ◽  
Child Sexual Exploitation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Sexual Interests

This study analyzed the evolution over time of the activity of consumers of child sexual exploitation material (CSEM). To this end, images and metadata were extracted from the hard drives of 40 individuals convicted of possession of child pornography and analyzed. A sample of these images ( N = 61,244) was categorized by the age of the subjects depicted and—using the Combating Paedophile Information Networks in Europe (COPINE) scale—by severity of the acts depicted. Collecting activity was observed to follow four patterns. The most prevalent pattern was a progressive decrease in the age of the person depicted and a progressive increase in the severity of the sexual acts. In light of the results, we propose four explanations of the nature of, and variations in, child-pornography collections.

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