scholarly journals Threatcasting: a framework and process to model future operating environments

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Natalie Vanatta ◽  
Brian David Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Detailed Explanation ◽  
Operating Environments ◽  
The Future ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Impact

Threatcasting, a new foresight methodology, draws from futures studies and military strategic thinking to provide a novel method to model the future. The methodology fills gaps in existing military futures thinking and provides a process to specify actionable steps as well as progress indicators. Threatcasting also provides an ability to anticipate future threats and develop strategies to reduce the impact of any event. This technical note provides a detailed explanation of the Threatcasting methodology. It provides the reader with its connections to the current body of work within the foresight community and then explains the four phase methodology through the use of a real-life example.

Clinical Conundrums When Integrating the QbTest into a Standard ADHD Assessment of Children and Young People

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Ecological Validity ◽  
Neuropsychological Test ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Hyperactivity Disorder ◽  
Standard Clinical Practice ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe uptake of the QbTest in clinical practice is increasing and has recently been supported by research evidence proposing its effectiveness in relation to clinical decision-making. However, the exact underlying process leading to this clinical benefit is currently not well established and requires further clarification. For the clinician, certain challenges arise when adding the QbTest as a novel method to standard clinical practice, such as having the skills required to interpret neuropsychological test information and assess for diagnostically relevant neurocognitive domains that are related to attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or how neurocognitive domains express themselves within the behavioral classifications of ADHD and how the quantitative measurement of activity in a laboratory setting compares with real-life (ecological validity) situations as well as the impact of comorbidity on test results. This article aims to address these clinical conundrums in aid of developing a consistent approach and future guidelines in clinical practice.

scholarly journals A data-driven method to detect the flattening of the COVID-19 pandemic curve and estimating its ending life-cycle using only the time-series of new cases per day.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Praveen Gupta ◽  
Prof. K.K. Sharma ◽  
Prof. S.D. Joshi ◽  
Dr. S. Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
The Future ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) has emerged as a pandemic and has presented itself as an unprecedented challenge to the majority of countries worldwide. The containment measures for this disease such as the requirement of health care facilities greatly rely on estimating the future dynamics and flattening of the COVID-19 curve. However, it is always challenging to estimate the future trends and flattening of the COVID-19 curve due to the involvement of many real-life variables. Recently, traditional methods based on SIR and SEIR have been presented for predictive monitoring and detection of flattening of the COVID-19 curve. In this paper, a novel method for detection of flattening of the COVID-19 curve and its ending life-cycle using only the time-series of new cases per day is presented. Simulation results are compared to the SIR based methods in three different scenarios using COVID-19 curves for South Korea, the United States of America, and India. In this study, simulations, performed on the 26th April 2020 show that the peak of the COVID-19 curve in the USA has already arrived and situated on the 14th of April 2020, while the peak of the COVID-19 curve for India has yet to arrive.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Activities of a Futurist

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-168
Author(s):  
Rudy van Belkom
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Science Fiction ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Artificial intelligence (AI) has surpassed the level of science fiction; it is increasingly being used as an analysis tool in modern scientific research. AI is able to classify and cluster large amounts of data in a short time, which could potentially save a lot of time and money. Algorithms can also recognize patterns that scientists might overlook. These advantages are currently hardly exploited in futures studies. This article will focus on the impact of AI on the activities of a futurist. A distinction is made between predicting, exploring, and creating the future. The aim of this article is to discuss the possibilities and challenges of using AI in futures studies. One of the biggest challenges of using AI in futures studies is the dependence of AI on large amounts of data which are not available about the future. We therefore have to work with historical data. I emphasize that it is crucial for futurists to take advantage of the opportunities that AI offers in futures studies, but to be well aware of its disadvantages and limitations.

Beyond Futures: Designing Futures by Educating Future Designers

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-293
Author(s):  
Stefanie Ollenburg
Keyword(s):  
Graduate Students ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Introductory Course ◽  
Research Through Design ◽  
The Future ◽  
Generic Design ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Blind Spots

The goal in design is to plan and create artifacts, including objects, communication, and services. These are meant to be used or applied in an unknown future. Therefore, design is part of a process shaping the future, yet implications are rarely considered and become blind spots. The essay is a pledge to integrate the concept of futures and foresight methododology into the education of designers to give them a better understanding of how to deal with change and uncertainty. It may increase designers’ sensitivity of the impact their work may have in the future and push their creativity by broadening their view looking at different future scenarios. The essay starts by presenting the facets that design encompasses, putting it into a historical context, and explaining some educational concepts. Ultimately, the author suggests a didactic approach that she has applied in a futures studies introductory course for graduate students of architecture at the Münster School of Architecture (MSA) in Germany. It is based mainly on practice-oriented exercises and assignments. This includes an approach based on the author’s approach to combine the generic design process used in research through design – involving the phases of analysis, projection and synthesis (APS) – with the concept of futures and tools used in foresight methodology.

Pengaruh Budaya Terhadap Akuntansi, Auditing Dan Praktik Akuntansi Internasional

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-95
Author(s):  
Priyastiwi Priyastiwi
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
National Level ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Cultural Dimensions ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Cross Cultural Differences ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this article is to provide the basic model of Hofstede and Grays’ cultural values that relates the Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and Gray‘s accounting value. This article reviews some studies that prove the model and develop the research in the future. There are some evidences that link the Hofstede’s cultural values studies with the auditor’s judgment and decisions by developing a framework that categorizes the auditor’s judgments and decisions are most likely influenced by cross-cultural differences. The categories include risk assessment, risk decisions and ethical judgments. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on the practice of accounting and financial disclosure is important to achieve the harmonization of international accounting. Deep understanding about how the local values may affect the accounting practices and their impacts on the financial disclosure are important to ensure the international comparability of financial reporting. Gray’s framework (1988) expects how the culture may affect accounting practices at the national level. One area of the future studies will examine the impact of cultural dimensions to the values of accounting, auditing and decision making. Key word : Motivation, leadership style, job satisfaction, performance

The economic analysis of rationality in the tradition of Harvey Leibenstein

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Ivan V. Rozmainsky ◽  
Yulia I. Pashentseva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Informal Institutions ◽  
External Information ◽  
Urban Residents ◽  
The Future ◽  
Information Constraints ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Market Capitalism

The paper is devoted to the economic analysis of rationality in the tradition of Harvey Leibenstein: the authors perceive rationality as “calculatedness” when making decisions, while the degree of this “calculatedness” is interpreted as a variable. Thus, this approach does not correspond to the generally accepted neoclassical interpretation of rationality, according to which rationality is both full and constant. The authors believe that such a neoclassical approach makes too stringent requirements for the abilities of people. In real life, people do not behave like calculating machines. The paper discusses various factors limiting the degree of rationality of individuals. One group of factors is associated with external information constraints such as the complexity and extensiveness of information, as well as the uncertainty of the future. Another group of factors is related to informal institutions. In particular, the paper states that the system of planned socialism contributes to less rationality than the system of market capitalism. Thus, in the post-socialist countries, including contemporary Russia, one should not expect a high degree of rationality of the behavior of economic entities. The paper mentions, in particular, the factors of rationality caused by informal institutions, such as the propensity to calculate, the propensity to be independent when making decisions and the propensity to set goals. The authors also believe that people who live on their own are usually more rational than people who share a common household with someone else. This assumption is verified econometrically based on data on young urban residents collected by the authors. It turned out that the behavior of people included in this database, in general, corresponds to what the authors believed.

The Impact of Angiotensin-II Receptor Blockers on Cardiovascular Events in Hypertensive Patients – Evidence from Real-life Databases

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Robert J Petrella ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Angiotensin Ii ◽  
Antihypertensive Drugs ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Angiotensin Ii Receptor Blockers ◽  
Angiotensin Ii Receptor ◽  
Real World Setting ◽  
Actual Experience ◽  
Receptor Blockers ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
The Impact

It is widely recognised that hypertension is a major risk factor for the development of future cardiovascular (CV) events, which in turn are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Blood pressure (BP) control with antihypertensive drugs has been shown to reduce the risk of CV events. Angiotensin-II receptor blockers (ARBs) are one such class of antihypertensive drugs and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have shown ARB-based therapies to have effective BP-lowering properties. However, data obtained under these tightly controlled settings do not necessarily reflect actual experience in clinical practice. Real-life databases may offer alternative information that reflects an uncontrolled real-world setting and complements and expands on the findings of clinical trials. Recent analyses of practice-based real-life databases have shown ARB-based therapies to be associated with better persistence and adherence rates and with superior BP control than non-ARB-based therapies. Analyses of real-life databases also suggest that ARB-based therapies may be associated with a lower risk of CV events than other antihypertensive-drug-based therapies.

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