Assessing the theory of change in national strategies

The theory of change links a strategy’s theory about the source of the conflict and the intervention philosophy to the implementation of programs and activities in the field. This paper focuses on strategic assessment at the national level, a step above the operational assessment at the departmental or agency level. The paper first discusses the importance of understanding a strategy’s theory of change and how policymakers at the national level think about the problem and how to intervene. The paper uses counterterrorism and conflict resolution strategy as examples. The author discusses two special challenges: how policymakers frame the desired outcome, and multiple theories. The author argues for strategic assessment officers to discuss a strategy’s theory or theories of change so that policymakers and national-level leaders can better understand how different theories drive their intervention plans and strategies. By improving policymakers’ understanding of their theory of change, and improve the clarity of the desired outcomes, strategic assessment officers can better measure the effectiveness of national-level strategies.