scholarly journals Does Bitcoin Hedge Categorical Economic Uncertainty? A Quantile Analysis

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110163
Author(s):  
Khaled Mokni ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Ahdi Noomen Ajmi ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Quantile Regression Model ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the hedge and safe-haven abilities of Bitcoin against U.S. aggregate and categorical economic policy uncertainty (EPU) via the application of quantile regression model augmented with a dummy and some control variables. Using monthly data from September 2011 to December 2019, empirical results indicate that Bitcoin does not act as a strong hedge against the aggregate U.S. EPU. However, it acts as a strong safe-haven for this aggregate measure of uncertainty when the Bitcoin market is bearish. Looking deeper into the disaggregated level of the U.S. EPU data, the analyses involving categorical EPU data indicate the ability of Bitcoin to act as a strong hedge and safe-haven against specific uncertainties related to fiscal policy, taxes, national security, and trade policy.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism of Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Time and Frequency Approaches

2020 ◽  
pp. 004728752092124
Author(s):  
Tsung-Pao Wu ◽  
Hung-Che Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Frequency Change ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Government ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and tourism activities in the Fragile Five (F5) countries, namely, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. By using wavelet transform context structures and the annual data during the period of 1997–2016. The finding shows that the relationship is generally positive but changes over time, displaying low- to high-frequency cycles. Moreover, the timing and frequency change when GEPU co-moves with tourism. It can be recommended that the government maintain the national security and peace protocols.

scholarly journals Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns

2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Thomas Chinan Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.

scholarly journals Market Efficiency and News Dynamics: Evidence from International Equity Markets

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas C. Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
International Equity Markets ◽  
International Equity ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the efficient market hypothesis by applying monthly data for 15 international equity markets. With the exceptions of Canada and the U.S., the null for the absence of autocorrelations of stock returns is rejected for 13 out of 15 markets. The evidence also rejects the independence of market volatility correlations. The null for testing the absence of correlations between stock returns and lagged news measured by lagged economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is rejected for all markets under investigation. The evidence indicates that a change of lagged EPUs positively predicts conditional variance.

scholarly journals Policy Uncertainty, Economic Activity And Carbon Emissions: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malihe Ashena ◽  
Ghazal Shahpari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Production ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Abstract Over the last few years, economic uncertainty has become a global concern. Not only has its impact on economic activities, but there are pieces of evidence that show uncertainty can be the reason for CO2 emissions. It is also expected that the economic policy uncertainty may decrease or delay economic production, which may lead to a reduction in carbon emissions. Furthermore, uncertainty may decrease friendly environment policies and budgets, which cause increase in carbon emissions. Thus, there may be an asymmetric relationship between economic uncertainty and the amount of CO2 emissions. This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty and economic activity on carbon emission applying a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) cointegration approach in Iran between 1971 and 2018. Findings show that both policy uncertainty and economic growth contribute to CO2 emissions. The negative and positive shocks of GDP and uncertainty index on CO2 emissions in both the short-run and long-run are significant. It can be concluded that there is an asymmetric effect of economic production on CO2 emissions in Iran. The results of analyzing asymmetric effects of economic uncertainty show a symmetric relationship between uncertainty index and CO2 emissions. In a way that a shock in uncertainty index lowers carbon emission. To sum up, since uncertainty may affect the analysis of carbon emissions incorrectly, some environmental policies such as allocating a budget for R&D on clean energy, and environmental taxes must be implemented.

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