NGA-East ground-motion characterization model Part II: Implementation and hazard implications

As a companion article to Goulet et al., we describe implementation of the NGA-East ground motion characterization (GMC) model in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for sites in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We present extensions to the EPRI/DOE/NRC seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the CEUS needed for full implementation of NGA-East. Comparisons are presented to the EPRI GMC, the currently accepted model by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for hazard assessment at nuclear facilities. Comparisons are presented both in terms of GMC model components and in the resulting seismic hazard assessments for a range of site locations in the CEUS. Illustrations of the effect of various components of the NGA-East GMC on seismic hazard results are also presented. Finally, we present recommendations for application of the NGA-East GMC in PSHA.

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Seismic Hazard in the Nation's Breadbasket

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/103114eqs174m ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. S109-S130 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Oliver Boyd ◽

Kathleen Haller ◽

Nico Luco ◽

Morgan Moschetti ◽

Charles Mueller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Nearest Neighbor ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Nuclear Facilities ◽

Motion Models ◽

Ground Motion Models

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

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A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (14) ◽

pp. 6119-6148

Author(s):

Graeme Weatherill ◽

Fabrice Cotton

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Logic Tree ◽

Short Period ◽

Northeastern Europe

Abstract Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.

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Determination of Local Site-Specific Spectra Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Bitlis Province, Turkey

Earth Sciences Research Journal ◽

10.15446/esrj.v19n2.50101 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 129-134 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Ercan Işık ◽

Mustafa Kutanis

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Response Spectra ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Site Specific ◽

Attenuation Relationships

In this study, site-specific earthquake spectra for Bitlis province in Lake Van Basin has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region.The probabilistic seismic hazard curves for Bitlis were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2%, 10% and 50% in 50 year periods. The obtained results were compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of the building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code, Section 2. At the end of this study, it is apprehended that the Code proposed earthquake response spectra are not sufficient for the performance evaluation of the existing structures and the current estimations show that the potential seismic hazard research of the Turkey is underestimated in the code.Therefore, site- specific design spectra for the region should be developed, which reflect the characteristics of local sites. Determinación de espectros de sitio específico locales a través del análisis probabilístico de amenazas sísmicaspara la provincia de Bitlis, Turquía ResumenEn este estudio se obtuvieron espectros de terremoto de sitio específico para la cuenca del Lago de Van, en la provincia de Bitlis, al este de Turquía. La primera fase del trabajo consistió en una evaluación probabilística de riesgo sísmico donde se compilaron los estudios geológicos y registros del período instrumental para hacer una caracterización de fuente sísmica en la región de estudio. Las curvas de amenaza sísmica para la provincia de Bitlis se desarrollaron con base en las relaciones de atenuación apropiada seleccionadas en los sitios rocosos, con una probabilidad de exceso de 2 %, 10 % y 50 % durante 50 años. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con las respuestas de espectro propuestas para la evaluación sísmica y modernización de estructuras contempladas en el Código de Terremoto de Turquía, en la sección 2. En la parte final de este trabajo se comprende que las respuestas de espectros de terremoto propuestos en el código no son suficientes para la evaluación de desempeño de las estructuras existentes y que las estimaciones actuales muestran que la investigación de amenazas potenciales sísmicas en Turquía está subestimada en el código. Por lo tanto, el diseño de espectros de sitio específico para la región se debe desarrollar, ya que permitiría conocer las singularidades locales.

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Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (6) ◽

pp. 1639-1661

Author(s):

Khalid Mahmood ◽

Naveed Ahmad ◽

Usman Khan ◽

Qaiser Iqbal

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Target Location ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Source Parameters ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Return Periods ◽

Hazard Maps ◽

Seismic Hazard Maps

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Peshawar District has been performed for a grid size of 0.01∘. The seismic sources for the target location are defined as the area polygon with uniform seismicity. The earthquake catalogue was developed based on the earthquake data obtained from different worldwide seismological networks and historical records. The earthquake events obtained at different magnitude scales were converted into moment magnitude using indigenous catalogue-specific regression relationships. The homogenized catalogue was subdivided into shallow crustal and deep-subduction-zone earthquake events. The seismic source parameters were obtained using the bounded Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law. Seismic hazard maps were prepared for peak horizontal acceleration at bedrock level using different ground motion attenuation relationships. The study revealed the selection of an appropriate ground motion prediction equation is crucial for defining the seismic hazard of Peshawar District. The inclusion of deep subduction earthquakes does not add significantly to the seismic hazard for design base ground motions. The seismic hazard map developed for shallow crustal earthquakes, including also the epistemic uncertainty, was in close agreement with the map given in the Building Code of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (2007) for a return period of 475 years on bedrock. The seismic hazard maps for other return periods i.e., 50, 100, 250, 475 and 2500 years, are also presented.

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Seismic source characterization of the Alpine foreland in the context of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by PEGASOS Expert Group 1 (EG1a)

Swiss Journal of Geosciences ◽

10.1007/s00015-008-1300-2 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 102 (1) ◽

pp. 121-148 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Stefan M. Schmid ◽

Dario Slejko

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Expert Group ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Alpine Foreland ◽

Group 1

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Site-specific seismic hazard analysis for Calabrian dam site using regionally customized seismic source and ground motion models

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1016/j.soildyn.2017.01.014 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 94 ◽

pp. 179-192 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Paolo Zimmaro ◽

Jonathan P. Stewart

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Site Specific ◽

Motion Models ◽

Dam Site ◽

Ground Motion Models

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Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Wind Farm Offshore England

Geotechnics ◽

10.3390/geotechnics2010002 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 14-31

Author(s):

Brian Carlton ◽

Andy Barwise ◽

Amir M. Kaynia

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

North Sea ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Source Characterization ◽

North East ◽

Seismic Source Models ◽

Source Models

Offshore wind has become a major contributor to reducing global carbon emissions. This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the Sofia Offshore Wind Farm, which is located about 200 km north-east of England in the southern North Sea and will be one of the largest offshore wind farms in the world once completed. The seismic source characterization is composed of two areal seismic source models and four seismic source models derived using smoothed gridded seismicity with earthquake catalogue data processed by different techniques. The ground motion characterization contains eight ground motion models selected based on comparisons with regional data. The main findings are (1) the variation in seismic hazard across the site is negligible; (2) the main source controlling the hazard is the source that includes the 1931 Dogger Bank earthquake; (3) earthquake scenarios controlling the hazard are Mw = 5.0–6.3 and R = 110–210 km; and (4) the peak ground accelerations on rock are lower than for previous regional studies. These results could help guide future seismic hazard assessments in the North Sea.

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Disaggregation of seismic hazard

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/bssa0890020501 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 89 (2) ◽

pp. 501-520 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Paolo Bazzurro ◽

C. Allin Cornell

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Source Effects ◽

Motion Time ◽

Time Histories ◽

Definition Of ◽

Rupture Mechanism ◽

Selection Of

Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates over all potential earthquake occurrences and ground motions to estimate the mean frequency of exceedance of any given spectral acceleration at the site. For improved communication and insights, it is becoming common practice to display the relative contributions to that hazard from the range of values of magnitude, M, distance, R, and epsilon, ɛ, the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by an attenuation equation. The proposed disaggregation procedures, while conceptually similar, differ in several important points that are often not reported by the researchers and not appreciated by the users. We discuss here such issues, for example, definition of the probability distribution to be disaggregated, different disaggregation techniques, disaggregation of R versus ln R, and the effects of different binning strategies on the results. Misconception of these details may lead to unintended interpretations of the relative contributions to hazard. Finally, we propose to improve the disaggregation process by displaying hazard contributions in terms of not R, but latitude, longitude, as well as M and ɛ. This permits a display directly on a typical map of the faults of the surrounding area and hence enables one to identify hazard-dominating scenario events and to associate them with one or more specific faults, rather than a given distance. This information makes it possible to account for other seismic source characteristics, such as rupture mechanism and near-source effects, during selection of scenario-based ground-motion time histories for structural analysis.

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Preliminary Volcanic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Tatun Volcano Group in Northern Taiwan

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.479-480.1061 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 479-480 ◽

pp. 1061-1065

Author(s):

Cheng Yu Pan ◽

Yuan Cheih Wu ◽

Chih Wei Chang

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Power Plants ◽

Hot Spring ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Source Parameters ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Earthquake Catalog ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Taipei Basin

Tatun volcano group is located in north Taiwan and near Taipei Basin where several million people live there. Although it provides hot spring and landscape for citizens and keeps calm most of time, the threat remains, particularly for the two nearby nuclear power plants. This paper discusses the seismic hazard of volcanic seismic source including source characterization of Tatun volcano group, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and its preliminary seismic hazard result. Based on nuclear regulatory requirement for PSHA, the uncertainties of source parameters are vital, such as geometry, maximum earthquake, and activity relating earthquake catalog selection, so the first-time seismic source characterization workshop for volcano is held to let domestic experts discuss their hypotheses and investigation result. Hence, the renewed source parameters can represent current geo-science for Tatun volcanic seismic source, and the process of PSHA can lead the better way to combine the result of different research projects for Tatun volcano.

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