scholarly journals A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Oana Petrof ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Stochastic Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. Methods We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Results Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Conclusions Contacts during leisure activities are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment of social contacts in the population is therefore crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion.

scholarly journals A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Oana Petrof ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Abrams Steven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and serological data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Community contacts are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment is crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion. In addition to social distancing, sufficient capacity for extensive testing and contact tracing is essential for successful mitigation.

scholarly journals The role of social context in the association between leisure activities and romantic relationship quality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiersten Dobson ◽  
Brian G Ogolsky
Keyword(s):  
Relationship Quality ◽  
Romantic Relationship ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Daily Diaries ◽  
Physical Affection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Romantic Relationship Quality

Shared leisure activities with one’s romantic partner are beneficial for both partners and their romantic relationship, but may not exclusively occur with only the partners present. The current research examines the impact of leisure and other relationship behaviors in various social contexts on romantic relationship quality (satisfaction and commitment). Data were collected from a representative sample of couples over the course of nine months (N=232 couples at Phase 1), including two 10-day daily diaries documenting engagement in 59 behaviors across various social contexts. Results demonstrated that leisure with one’s partner (without others) was positively associated with short-term relationship quality, whereas leisure with others (without one’s partner) was negatively associated with relationship quality; leisure with one’s partner and others and leisure alone were not associated with relationship quality. When considering engagement in other relationship behaviors with one’s partner, we found no unique effects of the rates of the behaviors, but significant effects for the proportion of physical affection relative to other behaviors. These findings suggest that the content and context of leisure have unique roles in romantic relationships.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Covid-19 lockdowns and related public health measures in Austria: a longitudinal online survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agata Łaszewska ◽  
Timea Helter ◽  
Judit Simon
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Extended Duration ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background Introducing national lockdown has been effective in containing Covid-19. However, several studies indicated negative impacts of lockdowns on the well-being and mental health of many people. In Austria, the first Covid-19-related lockdown was introduced on 16 March 2020 with most restrictions being lifted 1 month later. Seven months after that, in November 2020, the second full lockdown was implemented. The aim of this study was to compare the perceptions and experiences of the general population related to the first and second Covid-19 lockdowns in Austria. Methods Two waves of an online survey were conducted in May and December 2020 asking respondents about their concerns related to the Covid-19 illness, personal experiences of the lockdowns, perceptions of and compliance with imposed public health measures, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on different aspects of life during the two lockdowns. Descriptive statistics including frequency analysis were used to compare respondents’ answers collected in the two waves of the survey. T-test and chi-square tests were used to test differences between the two lockdowns. Results Five hundred sixty participants were included in the first wave and a sub-sample of 134 participants in the second wave of data collection. During the second lockdown, study respondents were more concerned about their family members contracting Covid-19 when compared with the first lockdown. Compliance with public health measures was overall lower during the second lockdown, although it varied according to the type of the measure. Closure of schools was seen as the least essential restriction during the second lockdown, while wearing masks gained additional approval between the first and the second lockdown. Larger negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on friendships, leisure activities, education and community were reported during the second lockdown. Conclusions The study found that the extended duration of the pandemic and recurring lockdowns restricting freedom of movement and social contacts appear to have caused significant disruptions to many areas of life. Furthermore, declining adherence to most public health measures over time raises a question about the effectiveness of future lockdown measures.

scholarly journals Augmenting contact matrices with time-use data for fine-grained intervention modelling of disease dynamics: A modelling analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022110370
Author(s):  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Frank Sandmann ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Daily Activities ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
The Impact

Social distancing is an important public health intervention to reduce or interrupt the sustained community transmission of emerging infectious pathogens, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Contact matrices are typically used when evaluating such public health interventions to account for the heterogeneity in social mixing of individuals, but the surveys used to obtain the number of contacts often lack detailed information on the time individuals spend on daily activities. The present work addresses this problem by combining the large-scale empirical data of a social contact survey and a time-use survey to estimate contact matrices by age group (0--15, 16--24, 25–44, 45–64, 65+ years) and daily activity (work, schooling, transportation, and four leisure activities: social visits, bar/cafe/restaurant visits, park visits, and non-essential shopping). This augmentation allows exploring the impact of fewer contacts when individuals reduce the time they spend on selected daily activities as well as when lifting such restrictions again. For illustration, the derived matrices were then applied to an age-structured dynamic-transmission model of coronavirus disease 2019. Findings show how contact matrices can be successfully augmented with time-use data to inform the relative reductions in contacts by activity, which allows for more fine-grained mixing patterns and infectious disease modelling.

scholarly journals The role of social context in the association between leisure activities and romantic relationship quality

2021 ◽  
pp. 026540752110365
Author(s):  
Kiersten Dobson ◽  
Brian Ogolsky
Keyword(s):  
Relationship Quality ◽  
Romantic Relationship ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Daily Diaries ◽  
Physical Affection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Romantic Relationship Quality

Shared leisure activities with one’s romantic partner are beneficial for both partners and their romantic relationship, but may not exclusively occur with only the partners present. The current research examines the impact of leisure and other relationship behaviors in various social contexts on romantic relationship quality (satisfaction and commitment). Data were collected from a representative sample of couples over the course of 9 months ( N = 232 couples at Phase 1), including two 10-day daily diaries documenting engagement in 59 behaviors across various social contexts. Results demonstrated that leisure with one’s partner (without others) was positively associated with short-term relationship quality, whereas leisure with others (without one’s partner) was negatively associated with relationship quality; leisure with one’s partner and others and leisure alone were not associated with relationship quality. When considering engagement in other relationship behaviors with one’s partner, we found no unique effects of the rates of the behaviors, but significant effects for the proportion of physical affection relative to other behaviors. These findings suggest that the content and context of leisure have unique roles in romantic relationships.

scholarly journals The fifth-place metamorphosis: the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on typologies of places in post-pandemic Cairo

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed S. Abd Elrahman
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Leisure Time ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home Work ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Actual Life ◽  
Life Work

PurposeThe world has recently faced the outbreak of an existential threat. Since December 2019, many aspects of life have changed owing to a devastating pandemic, COVID-19. The second wave started spreading in different parts of the globe. This article focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on Cairo city, regarding three upper-middle-class districts as a case study. Based on a literature review, a theoretical framework is proposed to analyse how residents changed their living, work, and leisure time habits during the outbreak of the pandemic.Design/methodology/approachA retrospective survey was conducted among the residents of three districts to investigate the new living model of adaptive, spontaneous urban and architecture design tactics that transfer people’s actual life, work, and leisure arrangements into future planning considerations.FindingsThe results reveal relevant observations about the adaptation of the existing environments of home, work, and leisure activities. From these results, different considerations and new norms emerge for housing typologies in post-pandemic Cairo.Originality/valueThe conclusions of this study introduced the new term “the fifth place” as a space-time place that could serve as a motivation for urban designers and architects to design space typologies considering the emerging circumstances.

scholarly journals INNV-33. THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON NEURO-ONCOLOGY CLINICAL TRIALS DURING WAVE 1 AND WAVE 2 AT A FRONTLINE DETROIT HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_6) ◽  
pp. vi112-vi113
Author(s):  
Joshua Alton ◽  
Carmen Griffin ◽  
Amanda Wigand ◽  
Kenneth Winters ◽  
Emily Krozek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Brain Tumor ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Standard Of Care ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Care Utilization ◽  
Cancer Therapies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract In the wake of the Coronavirus disease outbreak (COVID-19), clinical trial operations were significantly impacted following the shutdown of elective healthcare services and even emergency operations. When the pandemic hit Detroit, Michigan in March 2020, the Hermelin Brain Tumor Center (HBTC) at Henry Ford Health System was consumed in COVID-19 emergency care which affected patient enrollment, conduct of trial activities, therapeutic treatment, deviation from protocol requirements, and sponsor-study site contact. The first Metro-Detroit COVID-19 case was confirmed March 10th 2020. At that time there were 18 active brain tumor clinical trials (phase 1 - phase 3) providing anti-cancer therapies. Trial modifications included decentralized operations to buildings with clinic and radiology access away from inpatient COVID-19 care, utilization of telemedicine for non-essential visits, shipping of investigational products to patient home, and in some cases utilization of local results in place of central histopathological confirmation. By April 2020, trials were ranked based on availability of alternative therapies and subject safety in 4 tiers that correlated with subject benefit and impact on care. Trials were given a prioritization level to commence enrollment with priority given to trials where no standard of care exists. Of the HBTC trials, one was graded Tier 1 and most were graded Tier 2. All patients already enrolled continued on study. As restrictions eased, trials were opened in a sequential manner. Changes that were made during the first wave of the pandemic helped to minimize its effect on clinical trial operation and enrollment during the second wave in Fall 2020. Thus, leading toward a decrease in trial deviations and increased enrollment during the 2nd wave. The changes made during the first wave helped to safely continue enrollment and treatment during the second wave and will have a longstanding impact on how clinical trials will be conducted in the future.

scholarly journals Using social contact data to predict and compare the impact of social distancing policies with implications for school re-opening

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M Read ◽  
Angela R McLean ◽  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Leon Danon
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Return To School ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background Social distancing measures, including school closures, are being used to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission in many countries. Once "lockdown" has driven incidence to low levels, selected activities are being permitted. Re-opening schools is a priority because of the welfare and educational impact of closures on children. However, the impact of school re-opening needs to be considered within the context of other measures. Methods We use social contact data from the UK to predict the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number. We calibrate our tool to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using publicly available death data and Google Community Mobility Reports. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a back-drop of wider social distancing easing. Results We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data, combined with incidence data and Google Community Mobility Reports, is able to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number (R). From an pre-control setting when R=2.7 (95%CI 2.5, 2.9), we estimate that the minimum reproduction number that can be achieved in the UK without limiting household contacts is 0.45 (95%CI:0.41-0.50); in the absence of other changes, preventing leisure contacts has a smaller impact (R=2.0,95%CI:1.8-2.4) than preventing work contacts (R=1.5,95%CI:1.4-1.7). We find that following lockdown (when R=0.7 (95% CI 0.6, 0.8)), opening primary schools in isolation has a modest impact on transmission R=0.83 (95%CI:0.77-0.90) but that high adherence to other measures is needed. Opening secondary schools as well as primary school is predicted to have a larger overall impact (R=0.95,95%CI:0.85-1.07), however transmission could still be controlled with effective contact tracing. Conclusions Our findings suggest that primary school children can return to school without compromising transmission, however other measures, such as social distancing and contract tracing, are required to control transmission if all age groups are to return to school. Our tool provides a mapping from policies to the reproduction number and can be used by policymakers to compare the impact of social-easing measures, dissect mitigation strategies and support careful localized control strategies.

scholarly journals Mapping social distancing measures to the reproduction number for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200276
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M. Read ◽  
Angela R. McLean ◽  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
Leon Danon
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

In the absence of a vaccine, severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been controlled by preventing person-to-person interactions via social distancing measures. In order to re-open parts of society, policy-makers need to consider how combinations of measures will affect transmission and understand the trade-offs between them. We use age-specific social contact data, together with epidemiological data, to quantify the components of the COVID-19 reproduction number. We estimate the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number by turning contacts on and off based on context and age. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a background of wider social distancing measures. We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data can be used to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number ( R ). We find that following lockdown (when R = 0.7, 95% CI 0.6, 0.8), opening primary schools has a modest impact on transmission ( R = 0.89, 95% CI 0.82−0.97) as long as other social interactions are not increased. Opening secondary and primary schools is predicted to have a larger impact ( R = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02−1.53). Contact tracing and COVID security can be used to mitigate the impact of increased social mixing to some extent; however, social distancing measures are still required to control transmission. Our approach has been widely used by policy-makers to project the impact of social distancing measures and assess the trade-offs between them. Effective social distancing, contact tracing and COVID security are required if all age groups are to return to school while controlling transmission. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Pengaruh Budaya Terhadap Akuntansi, Auditing Dan Praktik Akuntansi Internasional

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-95
Author(s):  
Priyastiwi Priyastiwi
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
National Level ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Cultural Dimensions ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Cross Cultural Differences ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this article is to provide the basic model of Hofstede and Grays’ cultural values that relates the Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and Gray‘s accounting value. This article reviews some studies that prove the model and develop the research in the future. There are some evidences that link the Hofstede’s cultural values studies with the auditor’s judgment and decisions by developing a framework that categorizes the auditor’s judgments and decisions are most likely influenced by cross-cultural differences. The categories include risk assessment, risk decisions and ethical judgments. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on the practice of accounting and financial disclosure is important to achieve the harmonization of international accounting. Deep understanding about how the local values may affect the accounting practices and their impacts on the financial disclosure are important to ensure the international comparability of financial reporting. Gray’s framework (1988) expects how the culture may affect accounting practices at the national level. One area of the future studies will examine the impact of cultural dimensions to the values of accounting, auditing and decision making. Key word : Motivation, leadership style, job satisfaction, performance

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