scholarly journals Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatek Belay ◽  
Daniel Ayalew Mengistu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
Soil Loss Rate

Abstract Background Soil erosion is one of the major threats in the Ethiopian highlands. In this study, soil erosion in the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay) under historical and future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change was assessed. Future LULC was predicted based on LULC map of 1985, 2002, and 2017. LULC maps of the historical periods were delineated from Landsat images, and future LULC was predicted using the CA–Markov chain model. Precipitation for the future period was projected from six regional circulation models. The RUSLE model was used to estimate the current and future soil erosion rate in Muga watershed. Results The average annual rate of soil erosion in the study area was increased from about 15 t ha−1 year−1 in 1985 to 19 t ha−1 year−1 in 2002, and 19.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2017. Expansion of crop cultivation and loss of vegetation caused an increase in soil erosion. Unless proper measure is taken against the LULC changes, the rate of soil loss is expected to increase and reach about 20.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2033. In the 2050s, soil loss is projected to increase by 9.6% and 11.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the baseline period. Thus, the soil loss rate is expected to increase under both scenarios due to the higher erosive power of the future intense rainfall. When both LULC and climate changes act together, the mean annual soil loss rate shows a rise of 13.2% and 15.7% in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, which is due to synergistic effects. Conclusions The results of this study can be useful for formulating proper land use planning and investments to mitigate the adverse effect of LULC on soil loss. Furthermore, climate change will exacerbate the existing soil erosion problem and would need for vigorous proper conservation policies and investments to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on soil loss.

scholarly journals Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3740
Author(s):  
Megersa Kebede Leta ◽  
Tamene Adugna Demissie ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Grass Land ◽  
The Past ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Future

Change of land use land cover (LULC) has been known globally as an essential driver of environmental change. Assessment of LULC change is the most precise method to comprehend the past land use, types of changes to be estimated, the forces and developments behind the changes. The aim of the study was to assess the temporal and spatial LULC dynamics of the past and to predict the future using Landsat images and LCM (Land Change Modeler) by considering the drivers of LULC dynamics. The research was conducted in Nashe watershed (Ethiopia) which is the main tributary of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The total watershed area is 94,578 ha. The Landsat imagery from 2019, 2005, and 1990 was used for evaluating and predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of LULC changes. The future LULC image prediction has been generated depending on the historical trends of LULC changes for the years 2035 and 2050. LCM integrated in TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System assimilated with MLP and CA-Markov chain have been used for monitoring, assessment of change, and future projections. Markov chain was used to generate transition probability matrices between LULC classes and cellular automata were used to predict the LULC map. Validation of the predicted LULC map of 2019 was conducted successfully with the actual LULC map. The validation accuracy was determined using the Kappa statistics and agreement/disagreement marks. The results of the historical LULC depicted that forest land, grass land, and range land are the most affected types of land use. The agricultural land in 1990 was 41,587.21 ha which increased to 57,868.95 ha in 2019 with an average growth rate of 39.15%. The forest land, range land, and grass land declined annually with rates of 48.38%, 19.58%, and 26.23%, respectively. The predicted LULC map shows that the forest cover will further degrade from 16.94% in 2019 to 8.07% in 2050, while agricultural land would be expanded to 69,021.20 ha and 69,264.44 ha in 2035 and 2050 from 57,868.95 ha in 2019. The findings of this investigation indicate an expected rapid change in LULC for the coming years. Converting the forest area, range land, and grass land into other land uses, especially to agricultural land, is the main LULC change in the future. Measures should be implemented to achieve rational use of agricultural land and the forest conversion needs to be well managed.

scholarly journals Partitioning the impacts of land use/land cover change and climate variability on water supply over the source region of the Blue Nile Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (15) ◽  
pp. 2168-2184
Author(s):  
Marye Belete ◽  
Jinsong Deng ◽  
Ghali A. Abubakar ◽  
Menberu Teshome ◽  
Ke Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin

scholarly journals Effects of land use and sustainable land management practices on runoff and soil loss in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 648 ◽  
pp. 1462-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kindiye Ebabu ◽  
Atsushi Tsunekawa ◽  
Nigussie Haregeweyn ◽  
Enyew Adgo ◽  
Derege Tsegaye Meshesha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Sustainable Land Management ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Runoff And Soil Loss ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Application of Erosion 2D Model for Erosion Studies in Makurdi Metropolis of Benue State, Nigeria

2011 ◽  
Vol 367 ◽  
pp. 815-825 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.O. Isikwue ◽  
T.G. Amile
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Physically Based Model ◽  
Cover Cropping ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The City ◽  
Land Grading ◽  
2D Model ◽  
Soil Loss Rate

The equations of Erosion 2D Model (a physically based model) were transformed into a computer programme called EROSOFT and used to predict the rate of soil loss in Makurdi metropolis. The model has detachment, transport and deposition components. Four sites were chosen within the metropolis for this study. Soil samples were collected from the sites for laboratory analysis. Rainfall and runoff fluids were collected from the sites to determine their densities. Levelling instrument was used to detremine the channels slopes. The model predicted an average annual soil loss rate of 310kg m-2s-1 for the metropolis. The sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that straight slopes are more prone to soil erosion. The result of the model deviates slightly from established facts that, sandy soils are more erodible and hence prone to be easily detached. Nevertheless, the model shows that soil erosion is influenced by slope geometry and rainfall intensity. The study attributes the major causes of soil erosion in the city to urban runoff concentration and removal of vegetation, and therefore suggests the use of land grading, land forming and cover cropping as well as conservation structures like road side drains for the control of erosion in the metropolis.

GIS estimation of annual average soil loss rate from Hangar River watershed using RUSLE

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 529-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmud Mustefa ◽  
Fekadu Fufa ◽  
Wakjira Takala
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Study Finding ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Vegetative Cover ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Slope Length ◽  
Soil Loss Rate

Abstract Currently, soil erosion is the major environmental problem in the Blue Nile, Hangar watershed in particular. This study aimed to estimate the spatially distributed mean annual soil erosion and map the most vulnerable areas in Hangar watershed using the revised universal soil loss equation. In this model, rainfall erosivity (R-factor), soil erodibility (K-factor), slope steepness and slope length (LS-factor), vegetative cover (C-factor), and conservation practice (P-factor) were considered as the influencing factors. Maps of these factors were generated and integrated in ArcGIS and then the annual average soil erosion rate was determined. The result of the analysis showed that the amount of soil loss from the study area ranges from 1 to 500 tha−1 yr−1 with an average annual soil loss rate of 32 tha−1 yr−1. Considering contour ploughing with terracing as a fully developed watershed management, the resulting soil loss rate was reduced from 32 to 19.2 tha−1 yr−1. Hence, applying contour ploughing with terracing effectively reduces the vulnerability of the watershed by 40%. Based on the spatial vulnerability of the watershed, most critical soil erosion areas were situated in the steepest part of the watershed. The result of the study finding is helpful for stakeholders to take appropriate mitigation measures.

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