scholarly journals Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Yamada ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

AbstractPrevious projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Yamada ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Malcolm J Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

Abstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Yamada ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Malcolm J Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

Abstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Yamada ◽  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Malcolm J Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

Abstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. This study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

Asymmetric impact of CP ENSO on the significant reduction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the WNP since the late 1990s

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Kyoung Kim ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Nam-Young Kang ◽  
Byung-Kwon Moon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Genesis Frequency

<p>Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) is reduced significantly since the late 1990s, coinciding with a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase change from positive to negative. In this study, the underlying mechanism for this reduction is investigated through analysis of asymmetric central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties induced by the negative PDO phase. Results suggest that the significant reduction is caused by asymmetric CP ENSO properties, in which the CP La Niña is more frequent than the CP El Niño during negative PDO phases; furthermore, stronger CP La Niña occurs during a negative PDO phase than during a positive PDO phase. CP La Niña (El Niño) events generate an anticyclonic (cyclonic) Rossby wave response over the eastern WNP, leading to a significant decrease (increase) in eastern WNP TC genesis. Therefore, more frequent CP La Niña events and the less frequent CP El Niño events reduce the eastern WNP mean TC genesis frequency during a negative PDO phase. In addition, stronger CP La Niña events during a negative PDO phase reinforce the reduction in eastern WNP TC genesis. The dependency of CP ENSO properties on the PDO phase is confirmed using a long-term climate model simulation, which supports our observational results. </p><p>Acknowledgements: This work was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT; No. 2019R1A2C1008549).</p>

Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Changes under Global Warming. Part II: Long-Term Time Dependence in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8045-8059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Quinn ◽  
J. David Neelin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intense Storm ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Distributions of precipitation cluster power (latent heat release rate integrated over contiguous precipitating pixels) are examined in 1°–2°-resolution members of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. These approximately reproduce the power-law range and large event cutoff seen in observations and the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at 0.25°–0.5° in Part I. Under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global warming scenario, the change in the probability of the most intense storm clusters appears in all models and is consistent with HiRAM output, increasing by up to an order of magnitude relative to historical climate. For the three models in the ensemble with continuous time series of high-resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful storm clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II reanalysis and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Imager/Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) rain-rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high power cluster probabilities at this time. However, the results suggest that maintaining a consistent set of overlapping satellite instrumentation with improvements to SSM/I–SSMIS rain-rate retrieval intercalibrations would be useful for detecting trends in this important tail behavior within the next couple of decades.

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