scholarly journals Machine Learning Applied to Electronic Health Records: Identification of Chemotherapy Patients at High Risk for Preventable Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1106-1126
Author(s):  
Dylan J. Peterson ◽  
Nicolai P. Ostberg ◽  
Douglas W. Blayney ◽  
James D. Brooks ◽  
Tina Hernandez-Boussard
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Receiver Operator Curve ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Chemotherapy Patients ◽  
Operator Curve

PURPOSE Acute care use (ACU) is a major driver of oncologic costs and is penalized by a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quality measure, OP-35. Targeted interventions reduce preventable ACU; however, identifying which patients might benefit remains challenging. Prior predictive models have made use of a limited subset of the data in the electronic health record (EHR). We aimed to predict risk of preventable ACU after starting chemotherapy using machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on comprehensive EHR data. METHODS Chemotherapy patients treated at an academic institution and affiliated community care sites between January 2013 and July 2019 who met inclusion criteria for OP-35 were identified. Preventable ACU was defined using OP-35 criteria. Structured EHR data generated before chemotherapy treatment were obtained. ML models were trained to predict risk for ACU after starting chemotherapy using 80% of the cohort. The remaining 20% were used to test model performance by the area under the receiver operator curve. RESULTS Eight thousand four hundred thirty-nine patients were included, of whom 35% had preventable ACU within 180 days of starting chemotherapy. Our primary model classified patients at risk for preventable ACU with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.783 (95% CI, 0.761 to 0.806). Performance was better for identifying admissions than emergency department visits. Key variables included prior hospitalizations, cancer stage, race, laboratory values, and a diagnosis of depression. Analyses showed limited benefit from including patient-reported outcome data and indicated inequities in outcomes and risk modeling for Black and Medicaid patients. CONCLUSION Dense EHR data can identify patients at risk for ACU using ML with promising accuracy. These models have potential to improve cancer care outcomes, patient experience, and costs by allowing for targeted, preventative interventions.

Identification of patients at high risk for preventable emergency department visits and inpatient admissions after starting chemotherapy: Machine learning applied to comprehensive electronic health record data.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1511-1511
Author(s):  
Dylan J. Peterson ◽  
Nicolai P. Ostberg ◽  
Douglas W. Blayney ◽  
James D. Brooks ◽  
Tina Hernandez-Boussard
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Electronic Health Record ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Cancer Care ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Health Record ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Ed Visits

1511 Background: Acute care use is one of the largest drivers of cancer care costs. OP-35: Admissions and Emergency Department Visits for Patients Receiving Outpatient Chemotherapy is a CMS quality measure that will affect reimbursement based on unplanned inpatient admissions (IP) and emergency department (ED) visits. Targeted measures can reduce preventable acute care use but identifying which patients might benefit remains challenging. Prior predictive models have made use of a limited subset of the data available in the Electronic Health Record (EHR). We hypothesized dense, structured EHR data could be used to train machine learning algorithms to predict risk of preventable ED and IP visits. Methods: Patients treated at Stanford Health Care and affiliated community care sites between 2013 and 2015 who met inclusion criteria for OP-35 were selected from our EHR. Preventable ED or IP visits were identified using OP-35 criteria. Demographic, diagnosis, procedure, medication, laboratory, vital sign, and healthcare utilization data generated prior to chemotherapy treatment were obtained. A random split of 80% of the cohort was used to train a logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization (LASSO) model to predict risk for acute care events within the first 180 days of chemotherapy. The remaining 20% were used to measure model performance by the Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUROC). Results: 8,439 patients were included, of whom 35% had one or more preventable event within 180 days of starting chemotherapy. Our LASSO model classified patients at risk for preventable ED or IP visits with an AUROC of 0.783 (95% CI: 0.761-0.806). Model performance was better for identifying risk for IP visits than ED visits. LASSO selected 125 of 760 possible features to use when classifying patients. These included prior acute care visits, cancer stage, race, laboratory values, and a diagnosis of depression. Key features for the model are shown in the table. Conclusions: Machine learning models trained on a large number of routinely collected clinical variables can identify patients at risk for acute care events with promising accuracy. These models have the potential to improve cancer care outcomes, patient experience, and costs by allowing for targeted preventative interventions. Future work will include prospective and external validation in other healthcare systems.[Table: see text]

scholarly journals Using Predictive Modeling and Supervised Machine Learning to Identify Patients at Risk for Venous Thromboembolism Following Posterior Lumbar Fusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 219256822110193
Author(s):  
Kevin Y. Wang ◽  
Ijezie Ikwuezunma ◽  
Varun Puvanesarajah ◽  
Jacob Babu ◽  
Adam Margalit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Posterior Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Single Level ◽  
Patients At Risk

Study Design: Retrospective review. Objective: To use predictive modeling and machine learning to identify patients at risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) following posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) for degenerative spinal pathology. Methods: Patients undergoing single-level PLF in the inpatient setting were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Our outcome measure of VTE included all patients who experienced a pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30-days of surgery. Two different methodologies were used to identify VTE risk: 1) a novel predictive model derived from multivariable logistic regression of significant risk factors, and 2) a tree-based extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm using preoperative variables. The methods were compared against legacy risk-stratification measures: ASA and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) using area-under-the-curve (AUC) statistic. Results: 13, 500 patients who underwent single-level PLF met the study criteria. Of these, 0.95% had a VTE within 30-days of surgery. The 5 clinical variables found to be significant in the multivariable predictive model were: age > 65, obesity grade II or above, coronary artery disease, functional status, and prolonged operative time. The predictive model exhibited an AUC of 0.716, which was significantly higher than the AUCs of ASA and CCI (all, P < 0.001), and comparable to that of the XGBoost algorithm ( P > 0.05). Conclusion: Predictive analytics and machine learning can be leveraged to aid in identification of patients at risk of VTE following PLF. Surgeons and perioperative teams may find these tools useful to augment clinical decision making risk stratification tool.

scholarly journals Lung injury prediction score for the emergency department: first step towards prevention in patients at risk

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Carmelle Elie-Turenne ◽  
◽  
Peter C Hou ◽  
Aya Mitani ◽  
Jonathan M Barry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Lung Injury ◽  
Prediction Score ◽  
Injury Prediction ◽  
Patients At Risk

Piloting a Statewide Emergency Department Take‐Home Naloxone Program: Improving the Quality of Care for Patients at Risk of Opioid Overdose

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Dora‐Laskey ◽  
Joan Kellenberg ◽  
Chin Hwa Dahlem ◽  
Elizabeth English ◽  
Monica Gonzalez Walker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals Identifying those at risk of reattendance at discharge from emergency departments using explainable machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. P. Chmiel ◽  
M. Azor ◽  
F. Borca ◽  
M. J. Boniface ◽  
D. K. Burns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Departments ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Care Indicator ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Single Centre Study ◽  
Patients At Risk

ABSTRACTShort-term reattendances to emergency departments are a key quality of care indicator. Identifying patients at increased risk of early reattendance can help reduce the number of patients with missed or undertreated illness or injury, and could support appropriate discharges with focused interventions. In this manuscript we present a retrospective, single-centre study where we create and evaluate a machine-learnt classifier trained to identify patients at risk of reattendance within 72 hours of discharge from an emergency department. On a patient hold-out test set, our highest performing classifier obtained an AUROC of 0.748 and an average precision of 0.250; demonstrating that machine-learning algorithms can be used to classify patients, with moderate performance, into low and high-risk groups for reattendance. In parallel to our predictive model we train an explanation model, capable of explaining predictions at an attendance level, which can be used to help inform the design of interventional strategies.

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