Structural reliability assessment using Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation with respect to the statistical dependence of input variables

2015 ◽  
pp. 4125-4132 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Janas ◽  
M Krejsa ◽  
V Krejsa ◽  
R Briš
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Input Variables

Statistical Dependence of Input Variables in Doproc Method / Statistická Závislost Vstupních Veličin V Metodě Popv

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Janas ◽  
Krejsa Martin
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Software System ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Computational Procedures ◽  
Input Variables

Abstract In probabilistic tasks, input random variables are often statistically dependent. This fact should be considered in correct computational procedures. In case of the newly developed Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC), the statistically dependent variables can be expressed by the socalled multidimensional histograms, which can be used e.g. for probabilistic calculations and reliability assessment in the software system ProbCalc.

Value of information of in situ inspections of mooring lines

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2098740
Author(s):  
Jorge Mendoza ◽  
Jacopo Paglia ◽  
Jo Eidsvik ◽  
Jochen Köhler
Keyword(s):  
Pitting Corrosion ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Mooring System ◽  
Mooring Lines ◽  
Corrosion Condition ◽  
Chain Links

Mooring systems that are used to secure position keeping of floating offshore oil and gas facilities are subject to deterioration processes, such as pitting corrosion and fatigue crack growth. Past investigations show that pitting corrosion has a significant effect on reducing the fatigue resistance of mooring chain links. In situ inspections are essential to monitor the development of the corrosion condition of the components of mooring systems and ensure sufficient structural safety. Unfortunately, offshore inspection campaigns require large financial commitments. As a consequence, inspecting all structural components is unfeasible. This article proposes to use value of information analysis to rank identified inspection alternatives. A Bayesian Network is proposed to model the statistical dependence of the corrosion deterioration among chain links at different locations of the mooring system. This is used to efficiently update the estimation of the corrosion condition of the complete mooring system given evidence from local observations and to reassess the structural reliability of the system. A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the framework.

scholarly journals A Practical Nonprobabilistic Reliability Assessment Method on Key Strata Shear Failure in Longwall Mining

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hebing Luan ◽  
Jiachen Wang ◽  
Guowei Ma ◽  
Ke Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Shear Failure ◽  
Longwall Mining ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Friction Angle ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Mechanical Tests ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Support Design ◽  
Key Strata

Roof cutting has long been a potential hazard factor in longwall panels in some diggings in China. Meanwhile, the key strata structural reliability, which provides an assessment on the stability of overlying roof strata, may be a significant reference for support design in underground coal mines. This paper aims to investigate a practical nonprobabilistic reliability assessment method on key strata. The mechanical tests and the hollow inclusion triaxial strain tests were conducted to measure relevant mechanical parameters and in situ stress. Furthermore, against the typical failure features in Datong Diggings, China, a shear failure mechanical model of key strata is proposed. Then, an allowable-safety-factor based nonprobabilistic stability probability assessment method is given. The sensitivity of geometrical dimensions and uncertainty levels of friction angle and cohesion are further studied. It is found that thickness and span of key strata have more dominative effect on key strata’s stability compared with the other factor and the increase of uncertainty levels results in decrease of stability probability.

An Efficient Response Surface Method Using Givens Transformation for Structural Reliability Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 532-533 ◽  
pp. 408-411
Author(s):  
Wei Tao Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Tian Jun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Improved Accuracy

The response surface method was proposed as a collection of statistical and mathematical techniques that are useful for modeling and analyzing a system which is influenced by several input variables. This method gives an explicit approximation of the implicit limit state function of the structure through a number of deterministic structural analyses. However, the position of the experimental points is very important to improve the accuracy of the evaluation of failure probability. In the paper, the experimental points are obtained by using Givens transformation in such way these experimental points nearly close to limit state function. A Numerical example is presented to demonstrate the improved accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method compared to the classical response surface method. As seen from the result of the example, the proposed method leads to a better approximation of the limit state function over a large region of the design space, and the number of experimental points using the proposed method is less than that of classical response surface method.

GENERALIZED UNCERTAINTY IN STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

1994 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
KWAN-LING LAI Research Assistant ◽  
BILAL M. AYYUB Member, ASCE
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Reliability Assessment

scholarly journals Structural reliability assessment based on optical monitoring system: case study

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Mesquita ◽  
P. Antunes ◽  
A. A. Henriques ◽  
A. Arêde ◽  
P. S. André ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Health Monitoring ◽  
Health Monitoring ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Optical Systems ◽  
Structural Health

ABSTRACT Optical systems are recognized to be an important tool for structural health monitoring, especially for real time safety assessment, due to simplified system configuration and low cost when compared to regular systems, namely electrical systems. This work aims to present a case study on structural health monitoring focused on reliability assessment and applying data collected by a simplified optical sensing system. This way, an elevated reinforced concrete water reservoir was instrumented with a bi-axial optical accelerometer and monitored since January 2014. Taking into account acceleration data, the natural frequencies and relative displacements were estimated. The reliability analysis was performed based on generalized extreme values distribution (GEV) and the results were employed to build a forecast of the reliability of the water elevated reservoir for the next 100 years. The results showed that the optical system combined with GEV analysis, implemented in this experimental work, can provide adequate data for structural reliability assessment.

Efficient Reliability Assessment With the Conditional Probability Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rami Mansour ◽  
Mårten Olsson
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Probability Of Survival ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Reliability Method

Reliability assessment is an important procedure in engineering design in which the probability of failure or equivalently the probability of survival is computed based on appropriate design criteria and model behavior. In this paper, a new approximate and efficient reliability assessment method is proposed: the conditional probability method (CPM). Focus is set on computational efficiency and the proposed method is applied to classical load-strength structural reliability problems. The core of the approach is in the computation of the probability of failure starting from the conditional probability of failure given the load. The number of function evaluations to compute the probability of failure is a priori known to be 3n + 2 in CPM, where n is the number of stochastic design variables excluding the strength. The necessary number of function evaluations for the reliability assessment, which may correspond to expensive computations, is therefore substantially lower in CPM than in the existing structural reliability methods such as the widely used first-order reliability method (FORM).

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