Back to Agriculture?

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 935-955
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Freni ◽  
Neri Salvadori ◽  
Rodolfo Signorino
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Change Process ◽  
Weak Point ◽  
Economic Argument ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Long Run

Malthus’s main economic argument against free corn trade in his Essay on Population concerned the issue of structural change triggered by international trade. Malthus claimed that, in the long run, agricultural countries will develop their domestic industrial sectors and cut both their corn exports and their imports of foreign industrial goods. We critically assess Malthus’s views and compare them with Torrens 1815 and Ricardo 1822. We argue that the weak point of Malthus’s reasoning lies in his inability to perceive that an international trade-induced structural change process is at work both in agricultural and manufacturing countries. Moreover, we show that, notwithstanding the broad similarity of their conclusions, Torrens and Ricardo followed two analytically different paths.

Agricultural Trade and Structural Change: Evidence from Paraguay

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Blanco
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sectoral Composition

Abstract We study how international trade affects structural change in an agricultural exporting country. For this purpose, we calibrate a three-sector growth model to quantify the role of international trade in explaining structural change patterns observed in Paraguay. This country experienced a significant rise in net agricultural exports as a percentage of aggregate output during the period 1962–2012. We find the following results. First, international trade is crucial to explain the sectoral composition of employment in this country. The model including trade explains 84.2% of observed changes in employment shares during this period, while the model without trade can only account for 35.6% of observed changes. Second, employment in agriculture remains large in order to satisfy foreign demand. Third, employment shifts directly from agriculture into services in the long run, bypassing manufacturing. These patterns can only be explained by the rise in net agricultural exports.

Do International Tourism, Structural Changes, Trade Openness and Economic Growth Matter in determining CO2 emissions in Pakistan?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wajahat Alia ◽  
Farah Sadiqb ◽  
Tafazal Kumail ◽  
As’ad Aburumman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Tourist

The present study investigates the role of international tourist arrivals, structural change, consumption of energy, international trade and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Pakistan over a period of 1980-2017. The study employed ARDL model which revealed that there is a strong positive long-run association between CO2 emission and its determinants except for structural changes and trade which have no significant impact on CO2 emissions. Results reveal that tourism activities in Pakistan are environment friendly and it can add to preserve the scenic areas and major visitors spots in the country to attract more visitors to increase the revenue of the country. The study further applied Granger causality test and ratifies unidirectional causality from structural change, international tourist arrivals and consumption of energy towards CO2 except from international trade. Moreover, this study employed DOLS technique to get long-run robust estimates.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

International Trade and Economic Performance in Tanzania: Further Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Ally A. L. Kilindo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Spurious Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reform Period ◽  
Manufactured Goods

Abstract The study investigated the role of international trade in economic performance in Tanzania for the post reform period, from 1980 to 2018. International trade is measured by disaggregated imports and exports while economic performance is measured by GDP growth. Exports are disaggregated into manufactured goods and non-manufactured goods while imports are disaggregated into capital goods and intermediate goods. To obtain robust non-spurious regression results, Dickey-Fuller (D-F) and Phillips-Peron (PP) Unit Root tests were performed. Johansen Co-integration tests were employed to investigate long-run relationships between export, imports and economic growth. The Johansen test suggested a long-run relationship between international trade and its components and economic development. In addition, the Error Correction Model (ECM) results further supported a long-run relationship between international trade and economic growth in Tanzania. This calls for further opening of the economy and further liberalisation of trade restrictions.

scholarly journals TRADE AND GROWTH IN A NON‐RECOGNIZED SMALL ISLAND STATE: EVIDENCE FROM THE TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-130
Author(s):  
Salih Katircioglu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Island State ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
Small Island State ◽  
Growth Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This paper empirically investigates long‐run equilibrium relationship and causality between international trade and economic growth in North Cyprus, which has a non‐recognized state and suffers from the Cyprus problem for more than 40 years. Results reveal that long‐run equilibrium relationship exists between international trade variables (exports and imports of goods and services) and economic growth in this small island state. The present study also validates the existence of export‐led growth hypothesis in Northern Cyprus while it rejects the validity of import‐led growth hypothesis. Finally, this study has shown that Turkish Cypriots should improve not only services exports but also merchandise exports in to contribute to its economy further. Santrauka Straipsnyje, remiantis empiriniais duomenimis, tyrinejama ilgalaike pusiausvyra bei priežastinis ryšys tarp tarptautines prekybos ir ekonominio augimo Šiaures Kipre, kuris yra nepripažintas ir kenčia del šios politines problemos daugiau negu 40 metu. Empirinio tyrimo rezultatai leidžia teigti, kad tarp tarptautines prekybos rodikliu (prekiu ir paslaugu eksporto bei importo) bei ekonominio augimo šioje mažoje saloje vyrauja ilgalaike pusiausvyra. Tyrimas patvirtina hipoteze apie eksporto kaip ekonominio augimo veiksnio svarba, bet paneigia importo itaka nagrinejamos mažos šalies pletrai. Autorius ragina skatinti ne tik paslaugu, bet ir produkcijos eksporta norint pasiekti spartesni ekonomikos augimo masta Šiaures Kipre.

scholarly journals Agriculture Sector Credit and Output Relationship in Nepal

2020 ◽  
pp. 33-53
Author(s):  
Arjun Kumar Dahal ◽  
Khagendra Kumar Thapa
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out the condition of priority of commercial banks to provide loans to the agricultural sector and to find the relationship and impact of agricultural loans to the agricultural GDP of Nepal. Objectives: This study aims to compare the condition of loan disbursements in agricultural and manufacturing sectors. It further aims to compare loan percent with growth and contribution to the GDP of the agricultural and industrial sectors and tries to show the impact of agricultural loans to the agricultural GDP of Nepal. Methods: It was based on a descriptive and analytical research design. Statistical tools standard deviation, correlation, regression, etc. are used and Excel, and EViews software are used for the statistical calculations. Statistical calculations and graphs are simultaneously used to show and compare the condition of variables. Results: Commercial banks give higher priority to the manufacturing sector for loans than the agricultural sector. The Johansen Co-integration test indicates no long-run relationship between loans of commercial banks and agricultural output in Nepal. However, the least-squares method, it indicates that a positive causal relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural growth. Implications: The loans of commercial banks directly stimulate the growth of agriculture but the amount of growth is less noticeable. Thus, it is concluded that the commercial bank's loan alone cannot affect and control the growth of the agricultural sector of the Nepalese economy therefore the government should increase its expenditure on the agricultural sector.

scholarly journals Can Sectoral Re-allocation Explain the Jobless Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (4II) ◽  
pp. 705-718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Foreign Technology ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Jobless Growth

The present paper discuss the nature of structural changes in employment to understand jobless growth in Pakistan for the period spanning over 1967-2008. In our work (elsewhere)1 analysing Pakistan at sectoral level to find underlying factors generating jobless growth, we found that Jobless growth in manufacturing sector was anticipated. Industrial sector has a significant importance in any economy across the glob. Recent changes in the use of capital—based foreign technology has resulted in substitution of labour with non-labour inputs such as capital. Employment shifts between industrial sectors are often witnessed as indicators of Structural change in an economy. In this paper we are more interested in the nature of structural change that took place in Pakistan economy over 1967-2008. We set to analyse four commonly used measures of sectoral reallocation proposed by Lilien (1982), Groshen and Potter (2003), Rissman (1997), and Aaronson, Rissman and Sullivan (2004). Findings of our work are suggesting that the economy of Pakistan underwent structural change during periods of recession and recovery. However, it does appear that structural changes were more pronounced at the time of 1969 recession than that of 1991 recession. A plausible explanation for this result might be significant shifts in employment from agriculture towards services sectors. We conclude, based on the evidence from our study, that sectoral reallocation is one of the major causes of jobless growth in Pakistan.

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