International Trade and Economic Performance in Tanzania: Further Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Ally A. L. Kilindo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Spurious Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reform Period ◽  
Manufactured Goods

Abstract The study investigated the role of international trade in economic performance in Tanzania for the post reform period, from 1980 to 2018. International trade is measured by disaggregated imports and exports while economic performance is measured by GDP growth. Exports are disaggregated into manufactured goods and non-manufactured goods while imports are disaggregated into capital goods and intermediate goods. To obtain robust non-spurious regression results, Dickey-Fuller (D-F) and Phillips-Peron (PP) Unit Root tests were performed. Johansen Co-integration tests were employed to investigate long-run relationships between export, imports and economic growth. The Johansen test suggested a long-run relationship between international trade and its components and economic development. In addition, the Error Correction Model (ECM) results further supported a long-run relationship between international trade and economic growth in Tanzania. This calls for further opening of the economy and further liberalisation of trade restrictions.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Does Uncertainty Matter for Trade - Economic Growth Nexus in Indonesia?

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Panky Tri Febiyansah ◽  
Bintang Dwitya Cahyono ◽  
Rio Novandra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to test the impact of uncertainty on the causal relationship among exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia. The relationship is constructed by examining the presence of FDI-adjusted exports and imports (trade) and the output link using conditional variances-covariances derived from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process in a vector error correction model (VEC-GARCH model). Using evidence in Indonesia, the model exposes the uni-directional nexus from trade performance to trade-adjusted output growth in the absence of uncertainty. The volatility effects are evident in the causal relationship between trade and output. The finding shows that the uncertainty effects hamper the trade-economic growth nexus. Incorporated with the long-run causality, trade still causes output even after containing the contributions of volatility. The significant role of imports highlights the higher demand for intermediate capital products and the inclusion of technology in strengthening economic growth.

scholarly journals Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Normala Zulkifli ◽  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Series ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This paper examines empirically the nature of the impact of the exchange rate on import, export and economic growth in Malaysia from 2009 until 2018. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables and also to identify the effects of exchange rates on dependent variables including imports, exports and the Gross Domestic Product (DGP) that represent the productivity of the country. This study further focuses on investigating the impact or the role of export in drive the county economic growth. In achieving these objectives, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testing procedure is used to test the presence of unit root. In order to investigate the incidence of long run relationship between the data series, the Johansen Juselius Cointegration Vector is utilized. The Granger Causality in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework is employed to differentiate between short run and long run causal effects in examining the led growth determinants. The result shows that there is causality between exchange rate, import, export and GDP. Moreover, this study shows that exchange rates responded positively to import and export and negatively to GDP. The result further support for export led growth hypothesis in this study. Thus, confirm for the role of export in motivating the economic growth productivity in after World Crisis regime in year 2008. However, Malaysia must not only relay on international trade to generate income for the country. This is because Malaysia is fortunate to have survived the negative effects of the global crisis; the international trade is exposed to exchange rate instability. If Malaysia wants to succeed in international trade, it may be able to focus on food and services trade. As alternative Malaysia may focuses on agriculture sector by improving the research and development and be a champion on food supply for the world.

Recession and Economic Revival in Britain: The Role of Policy in the 1930s and 1980s

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Kitson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Alternative Perspective ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Market Economics

During the 1980s economic policy in the UK increasingly embraced free-market economics. For many, this was a necessary shift which improved economic performance, whereas previous periods of increased intervention, such as the 1930s, had harmed the UK economy. This article takes an alternative perspective. It argues that economic revival in the 1930s was primarily policy-induced; whereas economic growth in the 1980s can be largely explained by the unintentional demand side-effects of policy, with many of the free-market policies having, at best, a neutral impact and, in some cases, harming the long-run growth potential of the economy.

scholarly journals NONLINEAR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: RE-EXAMINING THE HUNGARIAN CASE

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Novak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Hungarian Case ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This paper aims to examine the non-linear adjustments between exports and gross domestic product (GDP) in Hungary. In order to test the export-led growth hypothesis in the Hungarian economy this research analyses data from 1996Q1-2016Q4. Applying relatively novel approach to export-led growth hypothesis likely nonlinear asymmetric effect of exports and GDP toward their long-run equilibrium is tested. The results disclose a threshold cointegrating connection between the selected variables providing more insights into export led growth hypothesis. Unlike previous studies, research results reveal unidirectional and bidirectional causality in the long-run Hungarian exports-growth nexus which depends on the regime process with significantly different error correction adjustments in normal and stress regimes. Exports is found to be an engine of economic growth in Hungary for entire period but in times of stress when domestic demand contracts the role of exports in economic growth becomes more prominent and takes the basic form of export led growth hypothesis. Empirical results in this paper clearly points that threshold cointegration approach offers deeper insights than the linear error-correction model and might be the proper model specification to examine export led growth hypothesis.

scholarly journals Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Revisit Study of Their Causality in Malaysia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Asmy Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Md. Fouad Amin ◽  
Anwar Allah Pitchay
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Dependent ◽  
Energy Strategies

The role of electricity towards the economy becomes crucial in many countries including in Malaysia. It becomes necessary to investigate whether electricity consumption contributes to economic growth in order to make appropriate energy policies. The purpose of this research is to examine the long run and causal relationships between electric power consumption and real GDP. This paper applies to the error-correction model. The results indicate that electricity consumption has a positive impact on economic growth. Besides that, there was unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption to real GDP but not vice versa. This paper suggests that Malaysia is becoming an energy-dependent country. The government should emphasize on formulating energy strategies so as to avoid adverse effects on economic growth.

Do International Tourism, Structural Changes, Trade Openness and Economic Growth Matter in determining CO2 emissions in Pakistan?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wajahat Alia ◽  
Farah Sadiqb ◽  
Tafazal Kumail ◽  
As’ad Aburumman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Tourist

The present study investigates the role of international tourist arrivals, structural change, consumption of energy, international trade and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Pakistan over a period of 1980-2017. The study employed ARDL model which revealed that there is a strong positive long-run association between CO2 emission and its determinants except for structural changes and trade which have no significant impact on CO2 emissions. Results reveal that tourism activities in Pakistan are environment friendly and it can add to preserve the scenic areas and major visitors spots in the country to attract more visitors to increase the revenue of the country. The study further applied Granger causality test and ratifies unidirectional causality from structural change, international tourist arrivals and consumption of energy towards CO2 except from international trade. Moreover, this study employed DOLS technique to get long-run robust estimates.

scholarly journals Interrelation between Eco-Innovation and Intra-Industry Trade—A Proposal for a Proxy Indicator of Sustainability in the EU Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teodoro Gallucci ◽  
Vesselina Dimitrova ◽  
Georgi Marinov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
The Eu

The “innovation–trade” interrelation has been a subject of research for decades. Nowadays, in the context of the growing importance of sustainable development, the role of eco-innovation is essential for promoting a rapid economic growth in each country. In this sense, eco-innovation influences the level of intra-industry trade stimulating international trade to adopt environmentally-friendly technologies. In general, the evaluation of eco-innovation in EU countries is done through indicators of their degree of performance and their impact on the welfare of nations. Using Eurostat data and WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) database for the period 2010–2018, the authors of this paper give empirical evidence of a linkage between the two indicators. The Grubel–Lloyd index is selected as an appropriate tool to show that socio-economic performance has a significant weight in eco-innovation scoreboard measurement. The results confirm that intra-industry trade of each EU country is closely related to the level of its eco-innovation index. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to test for such a type of interrelation and to show that by verifying the usefulness of eco-innovation performance in EU countries through an intra-industry trade indicator (IIT) such as the Grubel–Lloyd index.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

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