scholarly journals What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 570-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Beshears ◽  
James J Choi ◽  
Andreas Fuster ◽  
David Laibson ◽  
Brigitte C Madrian
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
The Other ◽  
Slow Process ◽  
Fast Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Mean

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over ten periods (“fast”), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods (“slow”). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.

scholarly journals Dynamic Causal Relationships among GDP, Exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Developing Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Amin Haghnejad ◽  
Jalal Dehnavi ◽  
Fereshteh Jandaghi Meybodi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Using panel techniques, this paper estimates the causality among economic growth, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for developing countries over the period of 1980 to 2008. The study indicates that; firstly, there is strong evidence of bidirectional causality between economic growth and FDI inflows. Secondly, the exports-led growth hypothesis is supported by the finding of unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run. Thirdly, export is not Granger caused by economic growth and FDI inflow in either the short run or the long run. On the basis of the obtained results, it is recommended that outward-oriented strategies and policies of attracting FDI be pursued by developing countries to achieve higher rates of economic growth. On the other hand, the countries can increase FDI inflows by stimulating their economic growth.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Channels and Industrial Production in Pakistan: Evidences based on ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 713-721
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq Mahmood ◽  
Sadaf Shahab ◽  
Saad Ali Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Monetary policy is a significant component of economic management, with which we can control higher inflation, boost the economic growth and stabilize the other macroeconomic activities. This study investigates the channels of monetary policy affecting the industrial production using monthly data of Pakistan. In this regard, we have applied Bound test for co-integration to investigate the dynamic behaviour of the variables. Our results indicate that the consumer prices, money supply and money market rates are negatively effective for industrial production in the short-run. On the other hand, exchange rate has positive effect in short-run. The results also indicate that there is statistically significant and positive relationship between industrial output and money supply in the long-run, too. The adjustment mechanism suggests stability in the system and is statistically significant. Our results imply that the authorities should use expansionary monetary stance through money supply channel to boost the industrial sector.

scholarly journals The Relative Importance of Health Care and Social Services for Population Health: A Time Series Investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Benjamin Yawney ◽  
Akhter Faroque
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

We study the relative importance of government health care and social services spending in the short, medium and long run across vector error correction models for six population health indicators. Each model takes into account the key time series properties of the health input and output data and also controls for the broader socio-economic, demographic, life-style and environmental determinants of health. The evidence shows that both types of spending contribute significantly to extending life expectancy and lowering mortality. However, the relative contributions of health care spending are bigger in the short run, while those of social services spending are bigger in the medium and the long run. Any policy of re-allocation of resources from health care to social services must take this trade-off into account.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

Monetary and Financial Stability

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigitte Granville
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
The Other ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Information Flows ◽  
Asset Bubbles ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean

This chapter examines the relation between monetary and financial stability, looking at possible chains of cause and effect running in both directions between them—from the possibility that an unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases the mean probability of financial system distress, to the general risk of monetary stability being undermined by financial instability. The idea that monetary stability encourages financial instability is controversial. Inflation is often the root cause of financial instability by distorting information flows between lenders and borrowers, leading to asset bubbles and over investment. Most empirical evidence tends to support the view that monetary stability should promote financial stability in the long run and not the other way around. But while monetary stability is a necessary condition for financial stability, it is not a sufficient one. In other words, financial instability can still occur even with the inflation rate under control.

Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory

Econometrica ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Marie Dufour ◽  
Eric Renault
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

scholarly journals Empirical Evidence on Korea’s Import Demand Behavior Revisited

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Econometric Technique

<p>This paper attempts to re-examine Korea’s import demand behavior with an enhanced<br />econometric technique and an up-to-date dataset. To achieve the goal, an autogressive<br />distributed lag (ARDL) approach is adopted. Our results show the existence of the long-run<br />relationship between Korea’s imports and its major determinants such as income and price. It<br />is also found that income plays an important role in influencing Korea’s imports in both the<br />short- and long-run. On the other hand, price is found to have a significant impact on Korea’s<br />imports only in the short-run.</p>

scholarly journals Estimation of Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward F. Blackburne ◽  
Mark W. Frank
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
American Statistical Association ◽  
Statistical Association ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Effects Estimator ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Pooled Mean Group Estimator ◽  
Heterogeneous Panels

We introduce a new Stata command, xtpmg, for estimating nonstationary heterogeneous panels in which the number of groups and number of time-series observations are both large. Based on recent advances in the nonstationary panel literature, xtpmg provides three alternative estimators: a traditional fixed-effects estimator, the mean-group estimator of Pesaran and Smith (Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics 68: 79–113), and the pooled mean-group estimator of Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (Estimating long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels, DAE Working Papers Amalgamated Series 9721; Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels, Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634).

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